scine09 Posted July 23, 2012 Report Share Posted July 23, 2012 I realize that the article is fantasy-related, but honestly, when a running back does well in fantasy he's also going to do well for the team he plays on too. I pasted the article because it's an insider article: Chris Johnson is the top fantasy RB The Titans' running back should be drafted behind only Aaron Rodgers Originally Published: July 19, 2012By KC Joyner | ESPN Insider Recommend75 Comments123 Email Print {C}{C} {C} Don McPeak/US PresswireThe Tennessee Titans are hoping that Chris Johnson can get back on track in 2012.{C} One of the biggest questions for every fantasy football owner this year is how much value should be placed on Tennessee Titans running back Chris Johnson. Will he be closer to the level of play that earned him the moniker "CJ2K," or more like the early 2011 season running back fantasy owners mocked with the moniker "CJ0K"? Many of those owners are understandably displaying a bit of trepidation in banking on a player who cost their team victories last season. That hesitance could cause Johnson's stock to drop in some draft rooms, leaving him available as late as the end of the first round in a 10-team league. The truth of the matter is that Johnson is worthy of being drafted at any spot in a draft other than the very first pick (which should be reserved for Aaron Rodgers). To understand why Johnson is so valuable, let's look at the factors that caused him to falter early last year. It all started with the rushing offense installed by new offensive coordinator Chris Palmer. Palmer has had some rushing play-calling success in his NFL career (his 1998 Jacksonville Jaguars squad had top-10 rankings in a number of important ground game categories) but Palmer's scheme early last year didn't make much use of the counter element. This is important because Mike Heimerdinger, Johnson's former offensive coordinator (who passed away in September after a nearly year-long battle with a rare form of cancer), was a master at finding ways to use counter elements. Heimerdinger even went so far as to place counter fakes into plays where counter fakes are almost never used (something that was detailed in this 2010 Insider article). The end of that article summed up the Johnson-Heimerdinger combination by noting that because Johnson is such an elite athlete, he almost certainly would be a success even in the most basic play-calling system in the league. But his pairing with Heimerdinger was a lot like Earl Campbell working with Bum Phillips. Phillips knew how to best use Campbell, and that was a key to Campbell becoming an all-time great. The lockout gave Palmer little time to work with Johnson or the Titans' run blockers last season, which led to play calling that wasn't counter-oriented, especially during the first three weeks of the season. The change in playcalling was compounded by very poor run blocking, as the Titans gave their ball carriers a good blocking situation (which is very loosely defined as not allowing the defense to do anything to disrupt a rush attempt) only 29 percent of the time in those three contests. That is an incredibly low mark, as the season-ending league worst mark in that category is usually just under 40 percent. When those two factors were combined, Johnson didn't react well at all. He seemed to run with less enthusiasm, and frankly looked at times as if he wasn't happy about having to run behind a standard blocking scheme. As a result, he tallied four, six and seven fantasy points in those first three weeks. Things started to improve Week 4 against Cleveland, as Palmer began using some of the Heimerdinger counter plays, but the poor run blocking was still an issue through the halfway point of the season. This led to Johnson posting a midseason 6.0-yard mark in the good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) metric that gauges how productive a ball carrier is when given good blocking. In past years, Johnson had always rated in the 8- to 9-yard range in that metric (a total that typically ranks at or near the top of the league). By about Week 10, the Titans had fully integrated Heimerdinger's counter elements back into the offense and the team's run blocking was much improved (they had a 43.3 percent good blocking rate over the final eight games of the year). As noted in my draft guide, Johnson ran with additional energy after these changes (he was finally back to the offense he liked) and it led to his posting a 9.2 GBYPA in Weeks 10-17. This also led to a huge increase in fantasy productivity, as Johnson went from racking up 57 points in the first eight games of the year to notching 100 points in the the last eight games. That late-season surge could be enough on its own to lead to the idea that Johnson can get back to something close to his 2009 CJ2K form, but there is another factor that makes this even more likely: Johnson's offseason mental approach seemingly has gone through a change for the better. This was detailed in a June article that said, among other things, that Johnson has added eight to nine pounds of muscle to his frame and has made improvements to his diet. There is also a report that Johnson has been running harder in offseason workouts and is taking an expanded leadership role on the team. Johnson is a gifted back who is determined to get his elite reputation back, and this year he'll be running in an offensive system that once again is going to be tailored to his skill set. The only negatives for him are a tough schedule (my draft guide rates the Titans as facing the third-toughest set of run defenses) and the possibility that the Titans will throw the ball more this season. However, the addition of guard Steve Hutchinson helps offset the former and Johnson's pass-catching abilities (194 receptions in four NFL seasons) offsets the latter. When the positive factors listed above are combined with the fact that every top-flight fantasy running back prospect has at least one significant question mark, it means that Johnson should have a big season. He is the best fantasy football running back prospect in 2012. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamalisms Posted July 23, 2012 Report Share Posted July 23, 2012 How does @NewsToTom feel this sort of analysis compares to other innovative stats out there? I feel like you've said before that segregating RBs from the OL from the play calling, etc isn't really possible in your eyes, yet KC does here... So, are these more/less objective than what FO does? Are they prone to bias? What's your general take? ... if you don't mind me asking ... Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldschool Posted July 23, 2012 Report Share Posted July 23, 2012 I've never been a fan of Joyner's work and this articles sums up why. He seems more interested in identifying a view point and then making the data fit rather than seeing where the data leads you. His fantasy analysis is way off too. In any league that favors QB play to the point that Rodgers is the de facto #1 pick, then there are numerous other QBs that would hold more value than even the best RBs. The only thing I can come up with is that Joyner is a CJ fan and it's coloring his findings. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
OILERMAN Posted July 23, 2012 Report Share Posted July 23, 2012 Ranking him as the #1 RB in FF right now is delusional Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
NashvilleNinja Posted July 24, 2012 Report Share Posted July 24, 2012 It's amazing how many people have commented on how subpar the run blocking was last year... ...yet CJ remains a bum. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaTitan Posted July 24, 2012 Report Share Posted July 24, 2012 It's amazing how many people have commented on how subpar the run blocking was last year... ...yet CJ remains a bum. NN, what's more amazing to me is how split our fanbase, and this board in particular is going to be come the start of the season. We'll actually have people rooting for the guy to fail just to be able to type "i told you so" for years to come on here. Never have I seen that before from any fanbase. It's pathetic. If you root for the team then you should hope for the best out of it's players. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
NashvilleNinja Posted July 24, 2012 Report Share Posted July 24, 2012 NN, what's more amazing to me is how split our fanbase, and this board in particular is going to be come the start of the season. We'll actually have people rooting for the guy to fail just to be able to type "i told you so" for years to come on here. Everyone wants to be right. That's what internet forums are typically all about. Otherwise you're just a lurker... or nendzone (whatever happened to her?). But it does seem a little sadistic the preoccupation with one guy's failure. A guy might say "hey, I hope he does well just like anybody" but that just reads like lip service to save face. Everything else that's said about CJ from them is contrary to that and it's either to puff up ones chest about how right they are... or it's just to irk those who are "wrong". But hey... that's just part of our charm around here. At least it's not boring. I'd rather have that than be posting on a forum like TOMB where everyone is 9, still goes trick-or-treating, and are afraid of wirty dords. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
OILERMAN Posted July 24, 2012 Report Share Posted July 24, 2012 Another terrible bit of analysis in this article is the mention of Palmer and his success with the run game one time back in 1998. In NFL standards 14 years is a life time and has no bearing on today's NFL. Palmer has a history of being the OC of teams with terrible run games over many seasons. Palmer is a reason to downgrade CJ as a FF RB, not elevate him. I find it hilarious that the entire time Dinger was the OC we actually had people bitching about how the coaches used CJ. Now we're reading that the key for Palmer is to use Dinger's plays to get the most of CJ. It's also very generous of Joyner to say CJ looked "unhappy with the standard blocking scheme" the first half of the season. Another way to say it is he looked like he didn't care and was totally terrified of contact, the same way he looked the last 4 games which led to Hall and Harper getting key carries. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanruss Posted July 24, 2012 Report Share Posted July 24, 2012 Another terrible bit of analysis in this article is the mention of Palmer and his success with the run game one time back in 1998. In NFL standards 14 years is a life time and has no bearing on today's NFL. Palmer has a history of being the OC of teams with terrible run games over many seasons. Palmer is a reason to downgrade CJ as a FF RB, not elevate him. I find it hilarious that the entire time Dinger was the OC we actually had people bitching about how the coaches used CJ. Now we're reading that the key for Palmer is to use Dinger's plays to get the most of CJ. It's also very generous of Joyner to say CJ looked "unhappy with the standard blocking scheme" the first half of the season. Another way to say it is he looked like he didn't care and was totally terrified of contact, the same way he looked the last 4 games which led to Hall and Harper getting key carries. i agree with the first part. the second part is just stupid bullshit again that has zero truth. RB's other than CJ carried the ball 46 times the first 8 games and 36 times the last 8... any thought that CJ was losing carries was not even close. CJ's average carries didn't drop... harper/hall just got broken-ass ringers carries. In fact, CJ's 6th,7th, and 8th "highest carries" games for the season are the 3 specific ones you are speaking of. i of course took out the 4th game you mention because no RB but CJ even carried the ball that day... i can use it if you want... but that would just be too easy wouldn't it? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
OILERMAN Posted July 24, 2012 Report Share Posted July 24, 2012 With the playoffs on the line and the clock needing to be run down Hall and Harper got the carries against the Texans. In this very game CJ was getting consoled and very upset on the sidelines. Gee I wonder why? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanruss Posted July 24, 2012 Report Share Posted July 24, 2012 With the playoffs on the line and the clock needing to be run down Hall and Harper got the carries against the Texans. In this very game CJ was getting consoled and very upset on the sidelines. Gee I wonder why? that again, is a horrible and baseless argument that has a lot inferring on your part.... and not to mention not exactly true. in fact, i'm having a hard time figuring out what you are basing your argument on at all?... titans claim the lead and CJ runs the ball 2 times in a row to start the next and final titan drive. harper comes in on 3rd and medium and busts a draw for 12 yards. D wasn't expecting it and tried the change of pace back again who was stuffed the next play. CJ is back on the field on the next play where palmer gambled again and hall fumbled. are you speaking of that 5 play series?... of which CJ was on the field for the majority of the plays and even ran the ball twice? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
OILERMAN Posted July 24, 2012 Report Share Posted July 24, 2012 LOL... those two running play by CJ are exactly why he didn't get the ball anymore. They were pitiful rushing attempts where he didn't even try. It was a hot topic in the chatroom as people recognized how bad the attempts were and it was obvious Munchak had seen enough of CJ running the ball. You can spin it all you want and you're so delusional regarding CJ you can't be taken seriously anyway. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldschool Posted July 24, 2012 Report Share Posted July 24, 2012 The Point here is that Joyner is way off. Based off of the past two years, there is no way that you can say that CJ should be the #1 RB drafted in Fantasy Football. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamalisms Posted July 24, 2012 Report Share Posted July 24, 2012 that again, is a horrible and baseless argument that has a lot inferring on your part.... and not to mention not exactly true. in fact, i'm having a hard time figuring out what you are basing your argument on at all?... titans claim the lead and CJ runs the ball 2 times in a row to start the next and final titan drive. harper comes in on 3rd and medium and busts a draw for 12 yards. D wasn't expecting it and tried the change of pace back again who was stuffed the next play. CJ is back on the field on the next play where palmer gambled again and hall fumbled. are you speaking of that 5 play series?... of which CJ was on the field for the majority of the plays and even ran the ball twice? LOL... those two running play by CJ are exactly why he didn't get the ball anymore. They were pitiful rushing attempts where he didn't even try. It was a hot topic in the chatroom as people recognized how bad the attempts were and it was obvious Munchak had seen enough of CJ running the ball. You can spin it all you want and you're so delusional regarding CJ you can't be taken seriously anyway. Note he doesn't argue with you and insist that he didn't make crap up, he just replied with an "all else failed" CJ insult. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
OILERMAN Posted July 24, 2012 Report Share Posted July 24, 2012 The issue isn't CJ, it's Joyners terrible analysis Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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