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Mettenberger Stat Analysis


BudsOilers

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In looking at Mettenberger's splits, there are a couple of glaring areas where he needs to improve this offseason.

 

1.  2nd & 4-6 yards - amazingly this should be a good situation but he was 3 of 9 for 17 yards with 2 INT's in this area - QB rating of 2.8!

 

2.  3rd down % 1-6 yards - makeable situations.  8 of 23 (34.8%) for 110 yards with 2 TD's and 0 INT's - QB rating of 80.0 but only 7 first downs in the 23 opportunities (30.4%).  3rd and >10 illustrates check downs as he was 11 for 16 for 117 yards (89.8 QB rating) but only 1 first down conversion (6%). 

 

Overall on 3rd down, the passing stats look OK on the surface in terms of QB rating - 75.5 but the huge issue is 3rd down conversions - 11 of 47 - 23.4%.  My contention is that if he improves dramatically in the medium range area then the overall number should jump up to where you need it to be.  The league medium was around 40% but good offenses are generally 45-50% conversion rates.

 

3.  Intermediate Passing in general.  If you break out his production by length of the pass, his numbers are very good in every area except for 11-20, where they are awful:  Here it is:

 

 

Length of Pass

 

Behind LOS - 20/24 (83.3%) for 108 yards (4.5 YPA) with 1 TD and 0 INT - 99.3 QBR

1 - 10 YDS - 55/81 (67.9%) for 513 yards (6.33 YPA) with 3 TD and 1 INT - 92.3 QBR

11-20 YDS - 23/52 (44.2%) for 431 yards (8.29 YPA) with 2 TD and 6 INT - 46.7 QBR

21 -30 YDS - 6/16 (37.5%) for 231 yards (14.44 YPA) with 1 TD and 0 INT - 106.3 QBR

31 - 40 YDS - 2/3 (66.7%) for 123 yards (41 YPA) with 1 TD and 0 INT - 149.3 QBR

41+ YDS - 0/1 (0%) - 39.6 QBR

 

If Mettenberger is going to be the guy, he has to improve in these areas to be a good QB.  In looking at the production numbers, I will say that it stood out to me that his QBR is inflated by the 3rd down check downs (as is the case with every QB).  To me, 3rd down conversion rate is a more accurate indicator.  It's the money down and that's where good QB separate from bad ones.

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Mett looked good to me at any type of throw in college. But his accuracy did look a bit off more than I expected this year. He needs to improve, but I'm not overly worried about it all things considered.

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