Bridgewater falling in draft

[reo]

A few things to take into consideration: I've been watching Bridgewater for two years as well. My wife is a Louisville alum. My opinion on Bridgewater has not been influenced by the media - it is entirely my own. I like Bridgewater a lot and I think he's the best quarterback in the draft. He's the only guy I have rated as a first round pick as well.

 

However you do see grip issues at times with Bridgewater and you wonder if it's terminal. (it is - I'm convinced). With that in consideration he will likely struggle at times to throw intermediate to deep passes with velocity. This is going to be exacerbated when he's not playing in a clean pocket. This will probably be a limitation for his entire career. It doesn't show up every game and there's time when he's made beautiful 20+ yard passes with location. However it's real and I think that he needs to be in the right scheme fit. (WCO). 

 

Now the only question is the significance of this perceived limitation. Should he be the fourth quarterback off the board? No I wouldn't say that. Bridgewater is far superior to Manziel and Bortles as a player. I think many of his traits will translate very well to the NFL and I think he's the safest of the top quarterbacks. Most guys come into the league with some questions - the issue with Bridgewater is that you may not be able to ever "fix" his grip issue. (whereas coaches always think they can "fix" other QBs limitations).

 

You only have to ask whether you can work around it and put him in a position to succeed. (for example, I don't think he would be great in a windy, cold, wet, outdoor environment). A dome would be a preferable environment for him and so would a team that plays more with rhythm and a short to intermediate passing game. That undoubtedly impacts his stock because I don't think you can fairly say that Bridgewater can fit any scheme and play in any conditions. It is what it is though. If he lands in the right place and has homefield advantage in the playoffs I don't doubt that he can win a Super Bowl. But that doesn't mean that he's perfect and without any limitations.

 

Here's the Pro Day video for anyone interested:

 

 

 

 

if others have succeeded w/ similar or even smaller hands... they could also just simply look at increasing grip strength. If that would work b/c I don't know.

 

Just saying if it's not the size of his hands that are the real problem and it actually is strength... that can be fixed.

[Cyrus]

Hand size is measured by full extension from the tip of the pinky to the tip of the thumb. That doesn't really measure the size of the middle finger or the size of the palm in relation to the fingers. To that extent I'm not sure that all 9-1/4" hands are created equal.

 

But that's really beside the point. I'm not trying to judge him by the measured size of his hand, I'm doing so based on what's actually happening when he throws the ball. He struggles with grip because his hand/finger size. I can say that based on watching him throw the ball.

 

And again - no one is saying he's undraftable. He has a limitation that's real. The impact of that limitation on the next level is a bit of an unknown. All I know is that he will forever wear gloves, and I think that it might be smart for a team to design a custom glove for him.

[reo]

Hand size is measured by full extension from the tip of the pinky to the tip of the thumb. That doesn't really measure the size of the middle finger or the size of the palm in relation to the fingers. To that extent I'm not sure that all 9-1/4" hands are created equal.

 

But that's really beside the point. I'm not trying to judge him by the measured size of his hand, I'm doing so based on what's actually happening when he throws the ball. He struggles with grip because his hand/finger size. I can say that based on watching him throw the ball.

 

 

That's kind of what I'm getting at. Personally I can't tell if his problem w/ his grip is actual hand size (physical limitation that can't be fixed) or if it's actual grip strength (can be fixed). I'm not sure if that's something where you can see the difference just by watching him throw. The only way i could think that you could tell would be to find someone w/ similar hand size (palm in relation to fingers) that succeeded and even that's not really guaranteed. The main way would be to increase his grip strength and see if it helped which doesn't help us pre-draft. 

[Face]

A lot can change in a year. Who here knew about Blake Bortles a year ago. But I agree just looking at it right now, I'm pretty mixed on next year's QB. I see more running QB types and I don't want to go that route again. We've drafted raw athletic QB in the 1st round three times in a row. I really want to go a different route this time. Let's get a more polished pocket passer who can actually stay healthy. When we've had pocket QB (NOD, Volek, KFC, Hass) they actually stay healthy. Everytime we draft a running QB they keep getting injured. I'm tired of seeing our QB down on the ground

 

I see some similarities with Teddy to Matt Ryan. Matt Ryan did not have a great pro day either. People question the fact that Teddy doesn't really have any elite physical skill. Neither does Ryan. Pretty average arm and not mobile. But high level football IQ, intelligence, accuracy, polished, etc like Teddy. And I do think Teddy has a bigger arm than Ryan and is more athletic

 

Great point Locker. I was thinking of this as well, of course alot can change in a year like you said but I'm not excited about next years QB's. There's a lot of athlete types like Winston, Mariota, and Hundley. If Locker busts out this year I really don't want to go through the whole process again with ANOTHER 1st rounder that happens to be ANOTHER athlete that isn't the best looking passer. There's too many years being wasted on this crap, especially with what I think is a good looking roster. In fact, if Locker busts out I'd prefer to go the FA/trade route.

 

But anyway, this is a great class to pick a QB from & we should take advantage of it. There's a bunch of different types, so there's someone for everyone. Lets get the ball rolling & take one, evaluate Locker & the draft pick this year, and take it from there. More options.

[Cyrus]

It's not really grip "strength" because you're not really trying to squeeze the ball too much. It's about how your hand interacts with the ball in order to maintain contact throughout the process of the pass. Ideally you need to be able to hold the ball off your palm so that the fingers are determining the trajectory of the pass. (in addition to being able to "spin" the ball with velocity).

 

If your hands are too small (or fingers too short) the ball is naturally going to make contact with your palm which influences how the ball comes out of your hand. This influences both accuracy (ball location) and velocity. This shows up often in deep passes because in order to generate additional velocity, the quarterback is going to need to maintain better contact with the ball and laces in order to spin it with greater force. For those with smaller hands, this becomes problematic because the ball has a tendency to come off the palm which consequently impacts ball location (because the quarterback is trying to maintain better grip). That's why I've said that Bridgewater struggles with velocity AND ball location. (which shows up in games from time to time). He can sometimes loft deeper passes with accuracy, but can struggle to do so with ball location and velocity. 

 

The gloves help because they obviously add greater grip because of the friction between the ball and the glove. This enables the quarterback to hold the ball off the palm more because their hand doesn't need to conform to the shape of the football as much due to the additional friction on the fingers from the different material.

 

This is what I mean when I say it's a terminal issue. This is why Bridgewater struggled to throw the ball without a glove. It's a real issue. The only question is the degree to which Bridgewater can compensate for his lack of grip on the ball through gloves and finger placement. This is a very serious issue when the ball becomes wet too (when the friction changes). 

[IsntLifeFunny]

Good stuff Cyrus.

[Jonboy]

It's not really grip "strength" because you're not really trying to squeeze the ball too much. It's about how your hand interacts with the ball in order to maintain contact throughout the process of the pass. Ideally you need to be able to hold the ball off your palm so that the fingers are determining the trajectory of the pass. (in addition to being able to "spin" the ball with velocity).

 

If your hands are too small (or fingers too short) the ball is naturally going to make contact with your palm which influences how the ball comes out of your hand. This influences both accuracy (ball location) and velocity. This shows up often in deep passes because in order to generate additional velocity, the quarterback is going to need to maintain better contact with the ball and laces in order to spin it with greater force. For those with smaller hands, this becomes problematic because the ball has a tendency to come off the palm which consequently impacts ball location (because the quarterback is trying to maintain better grip). That's why I've said that Bridgewater struggles with velocity AND ball location. (which shows up in games from time to time). He can sometimes loft deeper passes with accuracy, but can struggle to do so with ball location and velocity. 

 

The gloves help because they obviously add greater grip because of the friction between the ball and the glove. This enables the quarterback to hold the ball off the palm more because their hand doesn't need to conform to the shape of the football as much due to the additional friction on the fingers from the different material.

 

This is what I mean when I say it's a terminal issue. This is why Bridgewater struggled to throw the ball without a glove. It's a real issue. The only question is the degree to which Bridgewater can compensate for his lack of grip on the ball through gloves and finger placement. This is a very serious issue when the ball becomes wet too (when the friction changes). 

If you're saying it and seeing it, I trust your judgment. I have no doubt it's a real issue and I know you aren't pushing an agenda. Even Teddy himself seems to admit something close to it in the video with Gruden. Talking about cold weather v. warm weather, gloves v. no gloves, etc.  

 

For me personally, I just don't see it showing up enough to be a huge issue in actual games. While we can identify throws here and there, he's had fantastic completion percentages that improved each year at Louisville. He's also played in rainy and cold games. Would be interesting to see how his numbers dipped in these types of games (do weather conditions show up on box scores for games? If not, they should). 

 

How did he look across the whole game against Cincinnati this past year? I remember that game being really wet and rainy (http://www.al.com/sports/index.ssf/2013/12/teddy_bridgewater_leads_no_19.html). His numbers were solid. 23-37, 255 yds, 3 TDs. He also did this...

 

[reo]

 

Even though it was completed, I have trouble seeing that as a good play. it's not nearly as bad as Manziel's hail mary 

 

 

But he still kinda just chunked it up there.

 

 

 

Just a classic case of people looking for/at completely different things when evaluating players.

[Jonboy]

Even though it was completed, I have trouble seeing that as a good play. it's not nearly as bad as Manziel's hail mary 

 

But he still kinda just chunked it up there.

 

Just a classic case of people looking for/at completely different things when evaluating players.

Come now, reo. You know full well that a QB's job in the vid of Teddy is to either throw it away or throw it to the back corner of the endzone where only the receiver has a shot at it. It was also in the 4th quarter on 3rd down with his team down more than a FG.

 

Manziel stupidly threw right into the middle of a crowd and got lucky at the start of the 2nd quarter with the game tied. 

[reo]

Come now, reo. You know full well that a QB's job in the vid of Teddy is to either throw it away or throw it to the back corner of the endzone where only the receiver has a shot at it. It was also in the 4th quarter on 3rd down with his team down more than a FG.

 

Manziel stupidly threw right into the middle of a crowd and got lucky at the start of the 2nd quarter with the game tied. 

 

I didn't say it was a bad play either. More of a throw away play. Not really good or bad. Shows elusiveness I guess but it's not like he's reading anything or making good decisions. it's an athletic see it/throw it play. It's not something to really base anything off of.

 

And like I said, it's no where near as bad as Manziel's throw but he's just kind of chunking it down field and I'd lean more toward saying he got lucky than anything else.

 

it's a good highlight reel play but it's not really something I'd look at to evaluate him on.

[reo]

@Jonboy put it this way... he's not making any reads. he's not seeing his guy open (barely looking down field when he hurls it). he's not seeing a window or anything. He's just getting a glimpse and chunking it. If that corner had better coverage (he probably couldn't tell), it's a pick and the game ends.

 

It ended well. It's a good highlight reel play but when it comes to evaluating him as a QB on that play... I dunno. It's a throw away play imo.

 

The problem is that end results (stats) aren't the beat all end all when it comes to evaluating players.

[Jonboy]

@Jonboy put it this way... he's not making any reads. he's not seeing his guy open (barely looking down field when he hurls it). he's not seeing a window or anything. He's just getting a glimpse and chunking it. If that corner had better coverage (he probably couldn't tell), it's a pick and the game ends.

 

It ended well. It's a good highlight reel play but when it comes to evaluating him as a QB on that play... I dunno. It's a throw away play imo.

 

The problem is that results aren't the beat all end all when it comes to evaluating players.

You're making more of it than I was intending. Only reason I posted was because it was from the game against Cincy in rainy weather and yes, it's a flashy highlight play good for a GIF  . I agree it doesn't show him going through reads (which isn't an issue for him anyway). I would definitely call it somewhat of a prayer, but I'd like to think he saw the space there (CB was way off) and thought there might be a chance. Like I said earlier, throw it away or chuck it to the corner of the endzone. He did exactly what you should in that situation. 

[reo]

You're making more of it than I was intending. Only reason I posted was because it was from the game against Cincy in rainy weather and yes, it's a flashy highlight play good for a GIF  . I agree it doesn't show him going through reads (which isn't an issue for him anyway). I would definitely call it somewhat of a prayer, but I'd like to think he saw the space there (CB was way off) and thought there might be a chance. Like I said earlier, throw it away or chuck it to the corner of the endzone. He did exactly what you should in that situation. 

 

it's just been posted a couple times and every time I've just been kinda "meh" ... just finally said something.

[Mercalius]

The Teddy and Manziel plays are two entirely separate plays.

Both required a certain amount of luck/skill in their scrambles to execute and luck/skill in the outcome of the play, but that's about where the comparisons end.  As Jonboy said, Manziel's was an outright questionable, if not stupid, decision given field position, score, time left in the game, and where he decided to throw the ball.  He was fortunate to not only get the pass off but immensely lucky that his late throw in the middle of the field, which was contested by numerous defenders, was caught by his teammate.  

Teddy's, though it still is in the "how much was luck versus skill" category does two things:  1.)  It shows the mobility/scrambling ability of Teddy, which has (at least at some point) been questioned.  This was never a question about Manziel.  So, it does benefit Teddy more.  2.)  It was an infinitely smarter/safer throw.  Bridgewater saw his receiver not only had a several stride lead on his man, but he also put the ball in a place that only his guy could get it.  In addition to "needing the play" more given the score/time left in the game, it was more of a combination of athleticism and intelligent distribution of the football mixed with some luck, whereas Manziel's was athleticism mixed with a very large amount of luck.

 

As for the glove/grip thing - there's no real way to answer or a way to fairly address that.  Could it be he has a grip issue that extends beyond his hand size?  Maybe.  Some throws in his college resume can support this theory, though a much higher volume of throws through varying weather conditions tend to make it look overblown.  Are the number of iffy passes notably higher than any other highly regarded prospect would make during the course of a season?  No idea, and I doubt many have the time to truly break that down.  I certainly don't.  They don't all come out perfect, every time, but if there are a larger % of bad throws for Teddy relative to other prospects, it is something that has to be evaluated.  And we also have to consider that a player who has worn gloves since highschool to throw would look different (and worse) when opting to throw without them for the first time in half a decade.  Much like pitching in baseball, many small seemingly insignificant things can change the end result of a throw, and when your hand and grip are accustomed to the feel of a glove over an extended period of time, it's highly doubtful a couple of weeks training without said glove will fully compensate for entire high school and college career's worth of reps and live games where you wore one.  Is it fixable?  Maybe, maybe not.  Does it matter?  Maybe, maybe not, given that there aren't any foreseeable bans on gloves in the NFL anytime soon.  Is it something to consider when drafting him?  Absolutely, but again you look back at his overall body of work and dissect things from there.  On a consistent basis in games, I've never seen any overwhelming evidence to suggest that Teddy has a fundamental problem gripping/throwing the football that will be a hindrance in the NFL.  They don't all come out like lasers, but they don't have to.  

 

Was it a tad concerning at his pro-day?  Yes, but much like a wideout having a game where he drops 5 perfectly placed passes when he's generally known for making consistent catches - you tend to view it as a fluke rather than the norm.  Especially if that wideout later says he decided not to wear gloves, which were typically the norm for him, for whatever reason that day.

[reo]

The Teddy and Manziel plays are two entirely separate plays.

Both required a certain amount of luck/skill in their scrambles to execute and luck/skill in the outcome of the play, but that's about where the comparisons end.  As Jonboy said, Manziel's was an outright questionable, if not stupid, decision given field position, score, time left in the game, and where he decided to throw the ball.  He was fortunate to not only get the pass off but immensely lucky that his late throw in the middle of the field, which was contested by numerous defenders, was caught by his teammate.  

 

The Manziel play was definitely the far worse of the 2. That wasn't the point.

 

 

Teddy's, though it still is in the "how much was luck versus skill" category does two things:  1.)  It shows the mobility/scrambling ability of Teddy, which has (at least at some point) been questioned.  This was never a question about Manziel.  So, it does benefit Teddy more.  2.)  It was an infinitely smarter/safer throw.  Bridgewater saw his receiver not only had a several stride lead on his man, but he also put the ball in a place that only his guy could get it.  In addition to "needing the play" more given the score/time left in the game, it was more of a combination of athleticism and intelligent distribution of the football mixed with some luck, whereas Manziel's was athleticism mixed with a very large amount of luck.

 

Unless you've got another angle, there's a lot of guess work in this. You can't tell what Bridgewater saw. And he just hurled it down field. I can't say the ball placement was much more than luck. About all that play showed was mobility. Anything more than that is a stretch at the very least. Not saying it was bad by any means but it's a throw away play. You can't base much off of it just b/c it was completed.