OILERMAN

Irrational exuberance is unfounded market optimism that lacks a real foundation of fundamental valuation, but instead rests on psychological factors.

At the market low March 20th 2020 my 401k was 414k. After yesterday my 401k is 1,011,829.00 It's not because I was smart or made some great move. It's because I did nothing. I stayed in the market. Also because, Like @oldschool said, I'm a baller

I think Biden is doing just fine but Trump is probably putting more strain on the GOP than Biden ever could and it's pretty easy when the legislation you're trying to pass is supported by 70+% of the country

"Talking Real Money" "Paul Merriman" "The Money Guy Show" "InvestTalk"

How so?

BTW, the fang stocks didn't just pull up QQQ, over a long time frame they pulled up the entire market since most of the funds are market weighted

I'm pretty sure I saw that the decade with the tech bubble and great recession was the first rolling 10 yr period that the market wasn't up.

OK, so it took 16 years from the height of the tech bubble to get back to 118.00, that sucks. But the fang stocks have def crushed everything the last 4 or 5 years, not a decade plus though

Actually QQQ was even or lost money for a decade plus until just a few years ago. The Nasdaq was a loser for a very long time. March 2000 QQQ was 118.00 a share. It wasn't until Sep 2016 that it got back over 118.00..... 16 freaking years Now the last 3+ years the shit has went straight up

Tech stocks outperformed everything for a brief time as well and completely tanked.

The lesson learned in 08 was they were too cheap and it caused the rebound to drag out too long. The more stimulus the better

Bide is handling this perfectly BTW, I saw a poll that 70% of the country agreed with the 1.9 trill package So who exactly are the Republicans representing here? We all know

Well I listened to a lot of experts talk about how small caps have done better than the overall market/S&P 500 throughout history so about 12+ years ago I switched my(and wife's) whole 401k to the small cap fund. Small caps have done like 14% the last 100 years, compared to like 10% for bigger companies. But at the same time I invest two Roth IRAs and into a taxable account and to balance it out I put all large cap stuff. If a person is fairly young I always recommend they go 50-50 into small cap and large cap funds. The risk is small caps can also do worse than the overall market for stretches but over time you're rewarded.

@Supdawg you've been over the top bullish on it the whole time even when it went down and made predictions that overhyped it. We know you love it.

Gold sucks ass as an investment too

From Barron's: The Russell 2000 index of small-cap stocks is up 9% this year, surging past the S&P 500, which is up 2%. Small-caps and cyclicals have been outperforming since last fall. Whether the trends still have momentum is debatable, but several strategists argue they remain intact. The key factors are excess liquidity, lower valuations, and prospects for more government spending as Democrats forge ahead with a $1.9 trillion economic revival package. The market is only in the “6th inning of this rotation,” Raymond James strategist Tavis McCourt argued in a research note this week. Another favorable trend he cited is a “wall of cash” building in consumer savings. But some other typical warning signals aren’t yet apparent. We haven’t seen a decline in the number of stocks rising relative to those falling, or weakness in economic indicators or credit-risk metrics. And sentiment among consumers and businesses isn’t deteriorating. “The bubble’s existence is very concerning,” Senyek wrote, “however we don’t see anything that will trigger an unwind for the foreseeable future.”

I was kidding, I was acting on your anti market timing schtick. Much like you said you could collapse bitcoin by buying into it. Of course there will be more down turns. And we won't see them coming. But more to @9 Nines point. I heard some podcasts talking about all this and what the fed has successfully done(so far) is kept rates low, print money while controlling inflation. As long as they do that the run up could go on a long time. And the market has always been disconnected from the true economy.

Based on recent calculations I'm certain there will never be another market crash, ever.

Ah, the market timers battle cry! At least your timing wasn't as bad as Jamal's. He got out right before the fastest and one of the biggest rallies in market history! While bragging and mocking others!

Bitcoin will still end badly My mind hasn't been changed

Go back to the first first post in this thread. Abenjami's very premise was the market was at an all time high and he was getting out. That was almost 5 years ago and his guess was the market(Dow) would drop below 17k. It's over 31k now and never did. Even a pandemic that caused a collapse didn't do it. Abenjami: The market is higher than it's ever been right now. I'm liquidating and waiting for the fall. How much "can" we go up from here? A lot potentially but who knows. Pointless to guess

People didn’t jump out of the market in Jan 1 of 2020, they did when the market crashed and 41% is awesome anyway

You mean like unless they got out!