Jamalisms Posted December 31, 2012 Report Share Posted December 31, 2012 Robert Grffin III, Russell Wilson, or Andrew Luck. One of these guys is going to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year award.I don't think the winner is clear. It's not cut and dry by any means. In fact, I don't know who I think should win the ROY award... but what drives an offense and what a QB is asked (forced) to do matters. Greatly. I see this consideration mentioned often, but then I see people dismiss Andrew Luck from real contention. This leads me to think that many observers haven't stopped to look at the facts very closely. It's more than just the simplification of the offense which benefits RG3 and Wilson. Way more. In fact, let's just look at things quantitatively and ignore the complexity angle, (which is itself more important than people care to admit). RG3 and Wilson might as well still be playing in college in terms of what is asked of them compared to Andrew Luck. Let's start by looking at the counter-balance to their respective passing attacks. Rushing Offense Rank: 1 - 2,709 yards, Washington 3 - 2,579 yards, Seattle 22 - 1,671 yards, Indianapolis Yards Per Rush Rank: 2 - 5.2 ypc, Washington 5 - 4.8 ypc, Seattle 23 - 3.8 ypc, Indianapolis Alfred Morris? Second leading rusher in the league. Marshawn Lynch? Third leading rusher in the league. Vick Ballard? Come on. Passing Attempts: 5 - 627 attempts, Andrew Luck 25 - 393 attempts, Russell Wilson 25 - 393 attempts, Robert Griffin III It's not even in the same ballpark. RG3 and Wilson passed 62.6% as many times as Luck. The important thing to note here is that it's not just that Luck passed a lot. He did, but Wilson and RG3 have meager totals. In fact, no full-time starter had fewer passes than Wilson... and RG3 and Wilson ranked 39th and 40th in attempts per game, respectively. Even if you add in rushes it is only 487 instances for Wilson, 513 for RG3, and 689 for Luck. That's still not even remotely similar... and, yes, Luck's passing atempts are remarkable. He wasn't just forced to pass a lot. He was forced to pass more often than any rookie ever. He passed the old mark by 37 attempts (and still won games). That's just passing attempts, though. Andrew Luck completed a low percentage, so how about offensive rank passing the ball? Passing Offense Rank: 7 - 4,128 yards, Indianapolis 20 - 3,422 yards, Washington 27 - 3,031 yards, Seattle The fact of the matter is that Seattle and Washington were not passing offenses. They were rushing offenses. Both teams put their quarterbacks in solid position by moving the ball running, forcing defenses to focus elsewhere, and then asked their rookie QBs to capitalize on favorable situations as infrequently as possible. Credit to RG3 and Wilson, they did a lot of capitlizing. Indianapolis, on the other hand, was a passing offense by necessity. They flat out struggled to run and asked Luck to find a way to keep the offense moving. Credit to him, he often did. It came with far more mistakes but consider this: Despite the major disparity in rushing attacks wielded by all three teams... Indianapolis' offense ranked tenth in the NFL, just 21 yards per game behind fifth ranked Washington and 12 yards per game ahead of seventeenth ranked Seattle. Sure, look at what Wilson and RG3 did when asked to do something. You can't dent their success, and they did what was worthy of praise... especially later in the season in Wilson's case. Accomplishments matter. These two guys are deservedly in contention for the award. At the same time, don't doubt for a minute that running backs drove the offenses in Washington and Seattle. Don't doubt for a minute the effect that has on how a defense game plans. Don't doubt for a minute how much easier that makes the game for quarterbacks. Don't doubt how stark and overwhelming the difference is, either... this most importantly. Is that enough to give the award to Luck, who passed with far less efficiency? I don't know. I am glad that I don't have a vote. This year is a tough one. Note: When you consider defenses as well, Wilson's exploits take a notable hit. Seattle surrendered the fewest points in the NFL, 143 fewer than Washington and 142 fewer than Indianapolis. Wilson's situation was remarkable. Best defense, third best rushing attack, pass less than anyone else? What more could a young QB wish for? Click here to view the article Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperFreak90 Posted December 31, 2012 Report Share Posted December 31, 2012 My gut says Russell Wilson Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
JLocker10 Posted December 31, 2012 Report Share Posted December 31, 2012 I'd pick Harrison Smith for DROY Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan Posted December 31, 2012 Report Share Posted December 31, 2012 RG3 easily. He led his team from 3-6 to win the division and they get to host their first playoff game since 1999. That's almost 14 years since hosting a playoff game, that's a really long time even in football years. As well as Mike Shannhan winning coach of the year. Only the 5th team in NFL history to start 3-6 and make the playoffs. Hasn't been done since 94. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
WG53 Posted December 31, 2012 Report Share Posted December 31, 2012 @Stan that is not nearly as impressive as Luck taking the worst team to 11 wins. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan Posted December 31, 2012 Report Share Posted December 31, 2012 Either way who ever wins it really deserves it. Luck, Wilson, RG3, Doug Martin, Alfred Morris it's been a really good rookie class. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
titansfan Posted December 31, 2012 Report Share Posted December 31, 2012 Redskins are in the playoffs. RG3 will win the award. He has the hype, pedigree, East Coast bias, stats, production, highlights, and appeal. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldschool Posted December 31, 2012 Report Share Posted December 31, 2012 I think it should be Wilson. he scored 30 total TDs, beat the Packers, 49ers, Patriots, and Bears, made clutch plays down the stretch in numerous big games, and finished with over a 100 passer rating. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamalisms Posted December 31, 2012 Author Report Share Posted December 31, 2012 If I was pressed, Wilson is the odd man out for me. He's much like RG3, except 2x as many interceptions on identical attempts and a way, way better defense. If it's what was asked, it's Luck. If it's doing well with favorable, it's RG3. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aramis Posted December 31, 2012 Report Share Posted December 31, 2012 The winner will be whoever goes the furthest in the play-offs. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldschool Posted December 31, 2012 Report Share Posted December 31, 2012 (edited) Wilson is the odd man out for me. He's much like RG3, except 2x as many interceptions on identical attempts and a way, way better defense. If it's what was asked, it's Luck. If it's doing well with favorable, it's RG3. I don't know. I think Luck really tailed off the last 3rd of the season. Of course voters may just hitch their wagon to the 9 game improvement in the win column, I just don't know. If you look deeper than basic stats, RG3 did not have the same impact as Wilson. He played against a group of terrible defenses in the NFC East 6 times. The skins also also played some of the leagues worst defenses out of the division in the Saints and Panthers. To top it off, they only had 3 wins against teams with a winning record. The Seahawks on the other hand play in a tougher division with the 49ers and a very competitive Rams team. They also had 5 wins against teams that won 10 or more games. I like RG3 but if you watched the Skins this year you saw how many of his big TDs were the result of blown coverages or great plays being made by his WRs. I can see it going either way but in a league where VY can win ROY with crap stats, anything can happen. Edited December 31, 2012 by oldschool Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
imemtitan Posted December 31, 2012 Report Share Posted December 31, 2012 You really can't go wrong with any of them, all three would be deserving of the award. I personally lean towards Wilson as having a slight edge, I just think he has look more poised and in control than the other guys, but then I have seen more Seahawks games, opinion might be different if more Indy or Skins games were televised up here. I will say I thought RG3 looked pretty bad last night but thought he looked good earlier in the year before his injury. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamalisms Posted December 31, 2012 Author Report Share Posted December 31, 2012 I don't know. I think Luck really tailed off the last 3rd of the season. Of course voters may just hitch their wagon to the 9 game improvement in the win column, I just don't know. If you look deeper than basic stats, RG3 did not have the same impact as Wilson. He played against a group of terrible defenses in the NFC East 6 times. The skins also also played some of the leagues worst defenses out of the division in the Saints and Panthers. To top it off, they only had 3 wins against teams with a winning record. The Seahawks on the other hand play in a tougher division with the 49ers and a very competitive Rams team. They also had 5 wins against teams that won 10 or more games. I like RG3 but if you watched the Skins this year you saw how many of his big TDs were the result of blown coverages or great plays being made by his WRs. I can see it going either way but in a league where VY can win ROY with crap stats, anything can happen. Wilson looked much better as the season progressed. I'm not sure the others did. His situation was far and away more favorable than the others. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
NashvilleNinja Posted December 31, 2012 Report Share Posted December 31, 2012 If I was pressed, Wilson is the odd man out for me. He's much like RG3, except 2x as many interceptions on identical attempts and a way, way better defense. If it's what was asked, it's Luck. If it's doing well with favorable, it's RG3. Favorable? The Skins may not have lost 14 games last year, but they did lose 11. "Favorable" is stretching it to say the least considering how bad their defense has been. Luck and RG3 both deserve equal consideration and possibly even deserve to share the award. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldschool Posted December 31, 2012 Report Share Posted December 31, 2012 Favorable? The Skins may not have lost 14 games last year, but they did lose 11. "Favorable" is stretching it to say the least considering how bad their defense has been. Luck and RG3 both deserve equal consideration and possibly even deserve to share the award. Do you have any idea how bad the Giants, Eagles, and Cowboys defenses were this year? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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