Drafted Players Retention Rate by GM

[SleepingTitan]

1 hour ago, BudsOilers said:

I remember seeing one of these back when Webster was here trying to advocate that he was good because so many of the drafted players were on the roster. 

There was only one roster that would have them. 

 

I'd be interested to see this analysis done on the top GM's. Steeler's have a tough time keeping people, but there always seems to be another 3-5th rounder to take their spot and play well. 

[Mythos27]

3 minutes ago, scine09 said:

The one problem with this study is  what if the GM is retaining stiffs that he drafted?  Sure, his retention rate might be higher but that doesn't make him better than a GM that drafted a player, he didn't work out, the GM identified it and moved on.

Most definitely, which I why I made sure to include each player's current positional ranking. A lot of these guys just haven't cut the stiffs yet. J-Rob's retention rate is the lowest but he drafted the most studs and has one of the highest average positional rankings among retained players.  As I suspect his eye for talent is unquestionably elite. Proof is in the pudding. 

[ChemEngr79]

I observed this analysis doesn't capture the wealth Miami received for Tunsil either. I would consider that a blockbuster pick for their GM.

[Mythos27]

2 minutes ago, ChemEngr79 said:

I observed this analysis doesn't capture the wealth Miami received for Tunsil either. I would consider that a blockbuster pick for their GM.

I don't think the draft picks from that trade have all been realized into players yet and I suspect that any that have would likely get an N/A designation from me. The trade was in 2019 right?

[ctm]

I wouldn't consider players who haven't come up for contract renewal yet in the formula unless they got an early extension or were cut prior to the renewal date.  Why are guys like Evans, Landry, Fulton, Simmons and Brown considered in the formula when their contract isn't up?

 

JRob has had a chance to renew Conklin, Dodd, Johnson, Henry, Davis, Jackson and he cut Wilson.  In my book, he's 1 for 7 or 14%

 

 

[oldschool]

3 hours ago, ctm said:

I wouldn't consider players who haven't come up for contract renewal yet in the formula unless they got an early extension or were cut prior to the renewal date.  Why are guys like Evans, Landry, Fulton, Simmons and Brown considered in the formula when their contract isn't up?

 

JRob has had a chance to renew Conklin, Dodd, Johnson, Henry, Davis, Jackson and he cut Wilson.  In my book, he's 1 for 7 or 14%

 

 

 

This goes back to what I was sating a few days ago.  Jrob has flat out sucked on 1st and 2nd round picks for the most part. He deserves credit for hitting on guys like Simmons, Brown, and Henry but outside of those 3, the ROI has been abysmal. 

[BudsOilers]

34 minutes ago, ctm said:

I wouldn't consider players who haven't come up for contract renewal yet in the formula unless they got an early extension or were cut prior to the renewal date.  Why are guys like Evans, Landry, Fulton, Simmons and Brown considered in the formula when their contract isn't up?

 

JRob has had a chance to renew Conklin, Dodd, Johnson, Henry, Davis, Jackson and he cut Wilson.  In my book, he's 1 for 7 or 14%

 

In theory, I have no issue with using drafted players for the 4 or 5 years and having them leave in FA.  It's a sound strategy as long as you draft effectively on a consistent basis.  Now, when you use up Conklin and then his replacement is a one and done bust, it hurts.  Also, if you are having lower picks in each round, the value of your draft capital is less than it was in the first couple of years.  There's less margin for error now.

[Mythos27]

2 hours ago, ctm said:

I wouldn't consider players who haven't come up for contract renewal yet in the formula unless they got an early extension or were cut prior to the renewal date.  Why are guys like Evans, Landry, Fulton, Simmons and Brown considered in the formula when their contract isn't up?

 

JRob has had a chance to renew Conklin, Dodd, Johnson, Henry, Davis, Jackson and he cut Wilson.  In my book, he's 1 for 7 or 14%

 

 

I used them because IMO it paints a more accurate picture of the value those picks brought to the team. Also players aren't guaranteed to still be with you just because they haven't come up for a contract, Isaiah Wilson got sent packing well before then so if that's going to count against you then it seems fair that players who weren't complete busts like that should count in your favor.

 

For example, neither D.K. nor AJ are up for contracts but unless something changes dramatically for either guy I think it's a safe bet they'll each get contracts with their draft team so I think it's fine to include that as a hit/retention. Finally, without including such players there just wouldn't be enough data to really get a feel for anything. As you can see, if I were to use your method the league-wide retention rate would be pretty garbage as so few players are getting second contracts.

 

I did attempt to address this by including a likely/unlikely designation in regards to a second contract. How I decided who got which designation is a combination of their position, how they're playing and their draft year (I didn't label rookies or second year players no matter how bad they were).Admittedly I did have to make some judgement call but feel free to challenge me on any of those designations. Either way, I think this chart will be more instructive next offseason after we get a better feel for how many of these guys were actually retained. I hope that was an adequate answer. 

[scine09]

After going through that list it’s amazing to me that Ryan Pace still has a job.

[Mythos27]

2 minutes ago, scine09 said:

After going through that list it’s amazing to me that Ryan Pace still has a job.

Dude, I thought that guy was going to be the league's new, young hotshot GM after that draft where he got Eddie Goldman, Adrian Amos, Eddie Jackson, and Kevin White who I was super high on. He's completely eaten shit after that. I actually really enjoyed putting that together because I learned a lot of things I wouldn't have guessed.

 

For instance, we all knew that Butler was good last season but I didn't realize he was the 15th ranked corner. I also thought Rashaan Evans's grade would be terrible and much worse than Landry's but was surprised to find out it's the opposite. I know that the J-Rob angle will dominate the discussion but I'm more curious to see what other little nuggets people can find in that chart.

 

Also, Ballard gets a ton of hype (I'm guilty here as well) and has had a ridiculous amount of picks (12) and of those 12 the most likely outcome is that this time next season only 5 will remain with the Colts. Never would've thought that. If he has a shitty draft they might in some real trouble especially if Wentz underwhelms.