big2033 Posted November 14, 2015 Report Share Posted November 14, 2015 http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/skeptical-football-for-once-my-mvp-isnt-peyton-manning/ Rookie of the Midyear This was a really easy pick and required no trickery. Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota had a ridiculous debut on opening day and has been putting up good stats for a QB on such a bad team. I know, Tennessee fans, you’ve been down this road before when you saw Vince Young win the Rookie of the Year award in 2006, only to watch him fade and leave football entirely in just six years. But the gap between Mariota and Young is like the gap between Peyton Manning and Rick Mirer. Mariota has averaged 8.2 yards per pass attempt (adjusted for sacks, touchdowns and interceptions), while Young averaged just 5.2. Young’s accolades were mostly based on his 8-5 record as a starter — making Young yet another example of how things like win-loss record are completely irrelevant for evaluating rookie QBs. Mariota has struggled to find wins (he is 2-4), but that should be perfectly acceptable to Titans fans: You need your rookie QB to produce yards and touchdowns (or possibly interceptions), not wins. Even better, Mariota has already missed games. If you’ve read Skeptical Football much, you know I love when QBs sit, because it’s just about the closest you can come to isolating a variable that the sport has to offer. Seven starting quarterbacks have played and missed at least two games each this year.7 You can see what happened once the QBs were out in the chart next to this paragraph. I’ve also added the “gold standard” of WOWY seasons, Aaron Rodgers’s absence from the Green Bay Packers in 2013, for comparison. Note that Mariota’s line is strikingly similar to Rodgers’s! Of course, the latter came over a larger number of games (played nine and missed seven), but this does raise the tantalizing possibility that Mariota may be an elite-level QB already. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonboy Posted November 14, 2015 Report Share Posted November 14, 2015 Was just about to post this. I love this line: "I know, Tennessee fans, you’ve been down this road before when you saw Vince Young win the Rookie of the Year award in 2006, only to watch him fade and leave football entirely in just six years. But the gap between Mariota and Young is like the gap between Peyton Manning and Rick Mirer." Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamalisms Posted November 14, 2015 Report Share Posted November 14, 2015 What does a negative EPA mean? Do that have the definition of EPA somewhere? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
big2033 Posted November 14, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 14, 2015 4 minutes ago, Jamalisms said: What does a negative EPA mean? Do that have the definition of EPA somewhere? Expected Points Added. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
TitanDuckFan Posted November 14, 2015 Report Share Posted November 14, 2015 9 minutes ago, Jamalisms said: What does a negative EPA mean? Do that have the definition of EPA somewhere? http://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/index.php/home/stats/stats-explained/expected-points-and-epa-explained Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamalisms Posted November 14, 2015 Report Share Posted November 14, 2015 Something about their expansion strikes me as off but I can't write decide what. Either way, it's simple enough. With Mariota the offense scores slightly better than a theoretical perfectly average offense, whereas Mett turns this team into a worse than average scoring team. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Titans279 Posted November 14, 2015 Report Share Posted November 14, 2015 The advanced statistics are favorable on Mariota and it's nice to have things like that to back up the general observations we've been making on him thus far this season. FiveThirtyEight has had a number of favorable pieces on him. PFF really doesn't rate Mariota well though, so it'll be interesting to see who's right. How did PFF rate Bridgewater/Carr/Bortles last year? Just to expand on the VY thing, VY had more holes in his game than Mariota does. VY also had a poor work ethic and probable mental health issues. Mariota obviously has holes in his game, along with some typical rookie flaws, but with his mentality and work ethic I think he will improve in those areas. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamalisms Posted November 14, 2015 Report Share Posted November 14, 2015 Sometimes PFF blindly pins a tail on the donkey but you don't go to them for instruction on donkey anatomy. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Titans279 Posted November 14, 2015 Report Share Posted November 14, 2015 Just now, Jamalisms said: Sometimes PFF blindly pins a tail on the donkey but you don't go to them for instruction on donkey anatomy. I don't value my time so I'm at least kind of interested in what they have to say, generally. ;) Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
big2033 Posted November 14, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 14, 2015 3 minutes ago, Titans279 said: The advanced statistics are favorable on Mariota and it's nice to have things like that to back up the general observations we've been making on him thus far this season. FiveThirtyEight has had a number of favorable pieces on him. PFF really doesn't rate Mariota well though, so it'll be interesting to see who's right. How did PFF rate Bridgewater/Carr/Bortles last year? Just to expand on the VY thing, VY had more holes in his game than Mariota does. VY also had a poor work ethic and probable mental health issues. Mariota obviously has holes in his game, along with some typical rookie flaws, but with his mentality and work ethic I think he will improve in those areas. PFF doesn't rate any QB well. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Titans279 Posted November 14, 2015 Report Share Posted November 14, 2015 They picked Teddy for their all-rookie team last year. Quarterback: Teddy Bridgewater (MIN) Others generated more talk but no rookie quarterback got about their business as efficiently and impressively as Bridgewater. Sure there were some teething pains but his strong finish to the year was an eye-catcher. He finished with the best grade of any QB over the past five weeks of the season.https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2015/01/13/2014-pff-all-rookie-team/ Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonboy Posted November 14, 2015 Report Share Posted November 14, 2015 10 minutes ago, big2033 said: PFF doesn't rate any QB well. IIRC, they gave Rodgers a poor grade in the game where he threw 5 TDs against the Chiefs. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
earlers Posted November 14, 2015 Report Share Posted November 14, 2015 Interesting considering that both Qbs(Simms Esiason) on Inside the NFL cast their ROY mid year votes to Winston. Here's the money quote from Phil Simms, "The Bucs have been in every game because of him" Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
rns90 Posted November 14, 2015 Report Share Posted November 14, 2015 1 minute ago, earlers said: Interesting considering that both Qbs(Simms Esiason) on Inside the NFL cast their ROY mid year votes to Winston. Here's the money quote from Phil Simms, "The Bucs have been in every game because of him" Phil Simms is a fucking idiot. He changes his opinions every five minutes or so and I think he is one of the worst NFL broadcaters. I'm baffled as to why CBS has kept him as the game analyst for their #1 game. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
TitanJoe Posted November 14, 2015 Report Share Posted November 14, 2015 10 minutes ago, earlers said: Interesting considering that both Qbs(Simms Esiason) on Inside the NFL cast their ROY mid year votes to Winston. Here's the money quote from Phil Simms, "The Bucs have been in every game because of him" Titans and Panthers both blew Tampa out so how has he kept them in every game? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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