abenjami Posted August 26, 2015 Report Share Posted August 26, 2015 I'm guessing a large portion of the people Trump has supposedly "alienated" can't legally vote or are too fucking lazy to actually cast a ballot. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rogue Posted August 26, 2015 Report Share Posted August 26, 2015 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
abenjami Posted August 26, 2015 Report Share Posted August 26, 2015 Did they check the legal voting status of those who answered this poll? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
CMJ Posted August 26, 2015 Report Share Posted August 26, 2015 Trump appeals to me. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legaltitan Posted August 26, 2015 Author Report Share Posted August 26, 2015 And a goofy looking black guy with a middle name that is the same as one of America's number one boogeymen couldn't possibly win either. Never say never in politics, esp when Trump has what Carville refers to as "the big mo" right now. I agree that it is very much in doubt as to whether he becomes the Republican nominee. And Hillary is no longer the shoe-in she was assumed to be either. But if they both did, I think Trump would take her out. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
CMJ Posted August 26, 2015 Report Share Posted August 26, 2015 Our country has become so influenced by reality TV and celebrities (pseudo or legitimate) I have no doubt Trump could win. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldschool Posted August 26, 2015 Report Share Posted August 26, 2015 come on Legal. This is below your standard. No chance Trump wins a General Election. Whats going on is that Republicans are making their dissatisfaction with the establishment known. Thats all. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pragidealist Posted August 26, 2015 Report Share Posted August 26, 2015 Did they check the legal voting status of those who answered this poll? Bush needed 44% of the hispanic vote to win. Romney got 27%. The only people Trump is "energizing" is the GOP base. Personally, I can't stand him. He's a bully. He's whats bad about capitalism; rich bully the smaller to keep and maintain their wealth. If he had a Mark Cuban style story, then his entrepreneurial story would have weight. I cant see him coming close to winning a general election- no matter who the dems nominate. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pragidealist Posted August 26, 2015 Report Share Posted August 26, 2015 come on Legal. This is below your standard. No chance Trump wins a General Election. Whats going on is that Republicans are making their dissatisfaction with the establishment known. Thats all. That and their overall candidate pool really really sucks. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Starkiller Posted August 26, 2015 Report Share Posted August 26, 2015 That and their overall candidate pool really really sucks. yeah, but it's still better than 4 years ago... Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pragidealist Posted August 26, 2015 Report Share Posted August 26, 2015 Legal you would actually vote for this guy?!? http://politicalwire.com/2015/08/26/trump-proves-facts-dont-always-matter/ http://www.redstate.com/2015/08/25/awesome-terrible-majesty-donald-trump-press-conference/ "He opened the conference by yelling at Univision anchor Jorge Ramos, who he claimed asked a question without being called on. He continued to yell at Ramos at some length about being out of turn, then turned to one of his campaign staffers, nodded, and pointed at Ramos, whereupon the staffer removed Ramos from the conference. (Note: I would have zero problem on principle with throwing Ramos out of a press conference on the merits). The next reporter’s question, naturally, was, “Why did you have him thrown out?” Amazingly, Trump responded to this question, I’m not kidding, by answering, “I didn’t have him thrown out, you’ll have to ask security, whoever they are.” When reporters pressed him with the obvious fact that the person who had him removed was on his staff (he appeared to be wearing a Trump button even, but I can’t swear to that), he immediately changed his tune to say that it was because the reporter was a “highly emotional person,” with no mention of the fact that 30 seconds earlier he had been denying that he had Ramos thrown out at all." I simply can't understand that.... you were joking right? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
CreepingDeath Posted August 26, 2015 Report Share Posted August 26, 2015 Don't get too caught up in the first act. There's some misdirection as the key pieces are set into place. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctm Posted August 26, 2015 Report Share Posted August 26, 2015 If you really want to get down in the weeds and study the numbers, read these two articles. The first shows the rate of demographic change since 2012 in the swing states. Look especially at chart 3. The second article is a model that allows you to adjust vote % and turnout % by demographic group and shows the new result for 2016 in popular and electoral terms. http://cookpolitical.com/story/8608 http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/08/26/demographics_and_the_2016_election_scenarios.html I ran a model in the second article that assumed that republicans got 42% of the Hispanic vote (Bush got 42% in 2004, Romney 27% in 2012). I also assumed republicans got 10% (Romney got 6%) of the black vote and I increased the white share of the vote from 64% in 2012 to 70% in 2016. All changes favorable to republicans. Result---democrats got 281 electoral votes. (Col., Vir. & Fla. were the states that flipped from 2012 when Obama got 332 electoral votes) Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legaltitan Posted August 26, 2015 Author Report Share Posted August 26, 2015 come on Legal. This is below your standard. No chance Trump wins a General Election. Whats going on is that Republicans people are mad as hell at the political establishment making their dissatisfaction with the establishment known. Thats all. Fixed it. How is it below my standard? I'm not saying it's right, or he should win, I'm just saying I think head to head he beats Hillary silly for all the reasons he is beating Jeb Bush silly. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legaltitan Posted August 26, 2015 Author Report Share Posted August 26, 2015 Legal you would actually vote for this guy?!? Hell no I wouldn't vote for Trump. I never said I am voting for him. I will not and would not vote for Trump. The most I said was in another thread where I said of all the Republican candidates, he's the one I could most easily live with because he is the least conservative. All I have said about voting in this thread is that Hillary will not be getting my vote. That doesn't mean in a head to head I would vote for Trump over Hillary. I'd stay home or prob vote third party in the scenario I am describing. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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