A little math and perspective as to the Titans chances at the 1st pick

[ctm]

Best way to solve quality vs quantity issue imo is keep the 1st pick but auction off the 2nd pick for more picks to add depth

 

Or just accept the fact that the team can't solve all its problems in 2015, take the best talent available and keep a multi-year approach.

[Nash]

I've come to think this way .. We can use talent at literally every position, but have a desparate need at lb

[scine09]

The Titans do need talent everywhere but a couple of positions, but sometimes when you address the biggest need the other holes aren't so glaring.

 

The Titans are so bad at the linebacker position that it's literally bringing the entire team down. 

[MIKE75]

Tennessee--2-12;at Jags and home against Colts

 

Tampa---2-12;home against Packers and home against Saints

 

Jax---2-12;home against Titans and at Texans

 

Oakland---2-12;home against Bills and at Denver

 

N.Y. Jets---3-11;home against Patriots and at Dolphins

 

Washington---3-11;home against Eagles and home against Cowboys

[Dmeade-]

Trade down. We need MORE good players than a few great ones. Unless everyone is forgetting this is the Titans, that 1 great player will be flopping around on the field and out for the season by game 6, possibly game 8.

No way.

[Carpy]

 

Games that count twice:

 

Houston beats Baltimore (at Hou)

 

Intuitively that doesn't sound right?  We played Houston twice, so wouldn't a Houston win actually increase our SOS (and take us further from the top draft pick).  I think that should be the other way around.

[scine09]

Intuitively that doesn't sound right?  We played Houston twice, so wouldn't a Houston win actually increase our SOS (and take us further from the top draft pick).  I think that should be the other way around.

Yeah I meant to write Baltimore beats Houston. I'll fix that.

[Jonboy]

"The loser of Thursday night's Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars contest will have an excellent chance to eventually jump Tampa Bay for the No. 1 overall pick."
 
1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2-12 0.467

2 Tennessee Titans 2-12   0.503

3 Jacksonville Jaguars 2-12 0.538

4 Oakland Raiders 2-12   0.571

5 Washington Redskins 3-11   0.469

6 New York Jets 3-11   0.536

7 Atlanta Falcons 5-9   0.495

8 New York Giants 5-9   0.505

9 Chicago Bears 5-9   0.513 

10 Carolina Panthers 5-8 1 0.503

 
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/nfl-draft-scout/24893415/updated-2015-nfl-draft-order-week-15

[ctm]

Actually the strength of schedule spread between the bucs and titans widened slightly this week.

 

http://www.gbnreport.com/weeklydraftorder.html

 

Last week the spread was .010.  This week it is .013  The bucs are going to have to win a game for the titans to get to #1.

 

Here's the key quote from the CBS article:

 

However, the Bucs will host the Green Bay Packers and New Orleans Saints to finish the season, which will elevate their SOS, regardless of the outcome.

 

What this means is that CBS hasn't calculated the last two games into the SOS.  Gbnreport bases their SOS calculation on all 16 teams on the schedule, not just the games played to date.  With so many games already played, these numbers just aren't going to move very much.

[scine09]

Actually the strength of schedule spread between the bucs and titans widened slightly this week.

 

http://www.gbnreport.com/weeklydraftorder.html

 

Last week the spread was .010.  This week it is .013  The bucs are going to have to win a game for the titans to get to #1.

 

Here's the key quote from the CBS article:

 

However, the Bucs will host the Green Bay Packers and New Orleans Saints to finish the season, which will elevate their SOS, regardless of the outcome.

 

What this means is that CBS hasn't calculated the last two games into the SOS.  Gbnreport bases their SOS calculation on all 16 teams on the schedule, not just the games played to date.  With so many games already played, these numbers just aren't going to move very much.

Read my initial post. You don't have to read that article. The post I made explains it a lot more clearly.

[scine09]

"The loser of Thursday night's Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars contest will have an excellent chance to eventually jump Tampa Bay for the No. 1 overall pick."

 

1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2-12 0.467

2 Tennessee Titans 2-12   0.503

3 Jacksonville Jaguars 2-12 0.538

4 Oakland Raiders 2-12   0.571

5 Washington Redskins 3-11   0.469

6 New York Jets 3-11   0.536

7 Atlanta Falcons 5-9   0.495

8 New York Giants 5-9   0.505

9 Chicago Bears 5-9   0.513 

10 Carolina Panthers 5-8 1 0.503

 

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/nfl-draft-scout/24893415/updated-2015-nfl-draft-order-week-15

Wrong

[ctm]

Read my initial post. You don't have to read that article. The post I made explains it a lot more clearly.

 

The Titans are ahead by several games right now including the last two opponents. They will have to have all but either 3 or 4 games go their way depending on whether they involve one of the 3 games that cause a two game swing or the several others that cause a 1 point swing.

 

New Orleans winning last night made it more complicated for the Titans.

 

I read your post and agree.  The bucs are going to have to win a game for the titans to pass them.  CBS sports is wrong unless almost every single game falls the titans way.  If both teams have 2 wins, its highly likely the bucs have the top pick.

 

And btw, Gerald McCoy went to IR.

[scine09]

I read your post and agree.  The bucs are going to have to win a game for the titans to pass them.  CBS sports is wrong unless almost every single game falls the titans way.  If both teams have 2 wins, its highly likely the bucs have the top pick.

 

And btw, Gerald McCoy went to IR.

The Bucs are a better team than the Titans. It's not even close.

 

But the Bucs are going to finish 2-14 and hopefully draft Mariota so we don't have to hear about this nonsense like the Clay Travis article.

[Jonboy]

New Orleans winning last night made it more complicated for the Titans.

How is this possible? TB's SOS should have jumped as a result, right? And your first post said...

 

...

New Orleans beats Chicago (at Chi) Only counts once because the Bucs played Chicago once and New Orleans twice

...

 

If all but 4 of the top things happen and all of the bottom things happen then the Titans would pick 1st (5 things happening gets a tie and TB wins the tie-breaker). 

[scine09]

Yes. Not sure what I was thinking. I am hoping against hope that the Titans do not get the #1 pick so I wrote that incorrectly.

 

The Titans were helped, not hurt by last night's game. Although in my mind they were hurt and not helped.

 

Sorry about that.