Grantland: "Are We Witnessing the Rise of Jake Locker?"

[Pragidealist]

"It's just funny to consider that, when we start thinking about two-minute drills and who wins games, had Gilchrist held on to this pick, after a week or two passed and the highlights went into storage, we would have looked back and noted that Locker couldn't come up with a game-winning drive when his team needed him."

 

These are the kind of quotes that really get under my skin and I'm so thankful it didn't happen. It would have been a complete tragedy, not to mention inaccurate, to blame this "loss" on Locker. "Couldn't come up with a game-winning drive when his team needed him." Gimme a break. It's just completely ridiculous considering the INT would have been 100% on Walker, not to mention the 4 prior drops and at least 2 missed PI calls. Sadly, fans (even some from TR who I won't name) were already starting to lay the blame on him before the game even ended.  

 

I agree Jonboy. 

 

90% of the time this is the type of thing that I end up replying to and attempting to correct.  Because it drives me nuts. It's faulty logic and it should be a simple thing to point out. Yet rarely do many people see it that way. 

[Pragidealist]

I'm not sure I buy the statistically driven argument. I'm certainly not basing it on numbers (never even knew the numbers until I read that article).

 

Throwing to a spot is one thing. Throwing to a spot so that the moving target arrives at the spot at the same time as the ball -- that's what Locker currently has a problem with on many deep throws. Especially throws down the middle. Define it however you want. I'm hoping it's just a timing issue with the WRs that can be worked out.

 

The fact Locker throws a lot of balls high on shorter throws too makes it harder for me to blow off.

 

Except this is where the logic breaks down.  These two types of misses are completely different and are way too often connected. The fact that his footwork gets messy under pressure- leading to throw high is a completely different issue hitting a deep timing route.  

 

The second may be an issue. I am fine if you want to make that argument, but the two shouldn't be connected. They are logically different issues. 

[Pragidealist]

To be fair, too many posters on here lack respect for those throws. Schaub placed some beautiful balls high and to the sideline. They were much better balls than the Hunter throw, which was to the inside shoulder of the WR.

 

Where I think too much credit is given. Adjustments by the WR to shield, slow down, speed up, go up for the ball- all have too much effect.  I think too much credit is generally given based on the final product of the throw. If the wr does his job shields, times his jump right and overall makes the right adjustment then the throw looks great and pin point. If the Wr makes a bad decision or does a bad job on any of those things, then the throw looks awful.   Too much credit is given on those deep throws by the qb. 

[begooode]

Much farther to the sideline on the Hunter catch and the db doesn't even have to play the ball; he should just force the receiver out of bounds as soon as the ball arrives.

[Pragidealist]

Much farther to the sideline on the Hunter catch and the db doesn't even have to play the ball; he should just force the receiver out of bounds as soon as the ball arrives.

 

And that's calling for a high degree of accuracy on a very deep ball. Earlier we all saw the article with a heat map on the accuracy of deep balls. There is a reason that those are called low percentage throws.  The accuracy on those deep throws are not generally as great as people want to pretend.  

[Pragidealist]

Put this in context of another sport.  A basketball three point line is 19 ft or about 6 yards.  Pro athletes rarely hit that shot 50% of the time.  The degree of accuracy that some people seem to assume on a 35 yard pass seems to far surpass that. 

 

That seems to be too high of expectations, but I maybe I am off somewhere in that logic. 

[abenjami]

Put this in context of another sport.  A basketball three point line is 19 ft or about 6 yards.  Pro athletes rarely hit that shot 50% of the time.  The degree of accuracy that some people seem to assume on a 35 yard pass seems to far surpass that. 

 

That seems to be too high of expectations, but I maybe I am off somewhere in that logic. 

 

Well, let's take a look at the comparison.

 

The basketball player is attempting to loft a 9.5 inch wide ball into an 18 inch wide hole that is located about 3-4 feet higher than the player's eyes.  The receiving hole does not attempt to help achieve success by moving itself into position to adjust to a non-perfect throw.

 

The football player is attempting to throw a ball aerodynamically made to be thrown to another player that is much larger than the ball and has the ability to jump, dive, etc. to widen the successful landing zone and move itself into position to adjust to a non-perfect throw.

 

You could of course add other factors into the analysis which tend to prove one is more difficult than the other.  For example, the football player has to deal with defenders attempting to interfere with the throw from his hand all the way to the target.  The basketball player only deals with that opposing factor right in his face as near the target is not allowed (goal tending).

[Jonboy]

Not directed at anyone in particular, but posts from earlier made me remember an earlier article from Grantland. There's a reason the completion percentage drops the further you're throwing the ball.

 

http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/73694/pass-atlas-a-map-of-where-nfl-quarterbacks-throw-the-ball

[Cyrus]

From Louis Riddick from ESPN NFL Insiders (former scout):

 

@LRiddickESPN RT:@Grantland33: Are we witnessing the rise of Jake Locker? by @BillBarnwell http://es.pn/18WUvJ9 >>>agree with all except deep ball eval

[Pragidealist]

Well, let's take a look at the comparison.

The basketball player is attempting to loft a 9.5 inch wide ball into an 18 inch wide hole that is located about 3-4 feet higher than the player's eyes. The receiving hole does not attempt to help achieve success by moving itself into position to adjust to a non-perfect throw.

The football player is attempting to throw a ball aerodynamically made to be thrown to another player that is much larger than the ball and has the ability to jump, dive, etc. to widen the successful landing zone and move itself into position to adjust to a non-perfect throw.

You could of course add other factors into the analysis which tend to prove one is more difficult than the other. For example, the football player has to deal with defenders attempting to interfere with the throw from his hand all the way to the target. The basketball player only deals with that opposing factor right in his face as near the target is not allowed (goal tending).

That's my point. Some posters are talking like throwing a football is like shooting a basketball

Some are critiquing 35 yrd throws like they should br hitting small targets. Thats just not correct.

The further the throw = the bigger the window the qb is shooting towards

[Jonboy]

From Louis Riddick from ESPN NFL Insiders (former scout):

 

I followed him after you mentioned his tweet earlier and after I looked at his credentials. Very impressive. Seems like someone who definitely knows his stuff. Hope to see more evals of Locker from him in the future.

[scine09]

If nothing else this is by far the most positive press that Locker has gotten since being in the NFL. I've heard multiple members of the media who questioned him when he was drafted sing his praises this week.

 

His game against the Lions last year was very good but I don't remember this kind of a reaction by the national media then.

[oldschool]

Barnwell also wrote an article after week 1 how the Eagles offense was going to revolutionize the NFL. He's a little emotional and is quick to judge.

[abenjami]

That's my point. Some posters are talking like throwing a football is like shooting a basketball

Some are critiquing 35 yrd throws like they should br hitting small targets. Thats just not correct.

The further the throw = the bigger the window the qb is shooting towards

 

Both examples rely a lot on the specific situation if you want to analyze or compare them in a vacuum.

 

A wide open 3-pointer shot from the top of the key is going to be made a higher percentage of the time than one shot from the baseline with a hand in your face.

 

Similarly, the completion percentage of hitting a WR 35 yards down field when you are able to plant your feet and he's got the sole defender beat is going to be higher than when you are throwing on the run, about to get hit, and there's a safety over the top.

[chef]

Barnwell also wrote an article after week 1 how the Eagles offense was going to revolutionize the NFL. He's a little emotional and is quick to judge.

 

 

He's jumping the latest-greatest story du jour with hyperbole to generate traffic and discussion.  That's his job.