NFL Draft Top 11 Prognostications/Considerations

[Cyrus]

I'm finding it exceptionally difficult to put together a mock draft this year. From my view, there's so many pivot points in this draft with a lot of uncertainty with the quarterbacks. There's a number of new coaching staffs as well and some shifting schemes. As far as I can gather, there's only a few things we can really know.

 

1. Houston Texans: It's very possible that reports of the Texans taking a quarterback are inaccurate, but there are some reasons to suggest that they will. First - the Texans ownership encountered this dilemma years ago and they opted for the athletic defensive end in Mario Williams. Yes, only Cutler is starting but where is Mario Williams? Playing for the Buffalo Bills. This year I think the Texans will opt for the quarterback knowing that even a quality defensive player may not be the best decision - you still need a QB to win.

 

The next question is whom they will choose. At this point I think it's between Manziel and Bortles. Bridgewater could be a consideration, but there's nothing that would lead me in that direction for them. I don't think we can know for sure, but I find it hard to believe that Bortles is worth the first overall pick.

 

2. St. Louis Rams: The consensus best pick here is Clowney, but with Long and Quinn here I'm not sure that's likely. The Rams have made it known they want to trade down and Clowney is obvious as a target. Some suggest Greg Robinson as an option here and that's certainly possible, but it seems more likely the Rams will move from this spot instead. One other alternative is if the Rams stay and pick Sammy Watkins. The Rams have continually looked for receiver help and failed - perhaps they take one here or later on.

 

3. Jacksonville Jaguars: I genuinely believe the Jaguars do not want to commit to a quarterback this high. Maybe they feel comfortable with Bridgewater, maybe they don't. I think this is a team that wants to be more conservative which means taking a defensive player. The Jaguars missed when they took Gabbert high, they'll look to grab one later this time around and look to build a great defense. I think they would love to have Clowney, but Mack or Barr are serious considerations here. 

 

4. Cleveland Browns: The Browns are an exceptionally difficult team to predict. They obviously need a quarterback but I'm not sure whom it will be. At this point, I think they could be a target for Bortles or Manziel. With weather being a concern they might look to find a more physical QB with more arm strength. Carr could be an option if they fall in love, but I don't think that will be the case. Bridgewater doesn't seem like a great fit for a team playing in this division. 

 

A wide receiver could be an option here too if Watkins is available. They could grab a cornerback as well but I think they would prefer to do so with their other first round pick. I think the Browns are a candidate to move up.

 

5. Oakland Raiders: Another wildcard option. I don't believe the Raiders are looking for a QB this high. Bridgewater would be a good fit here however and it's possible that they may consider him. Derek Carr is rumored to be a favorite of theirs, but I believe that they are looking to grab a QB later than earlier. The Raiders have strong needs at a number of places including Cornerback, Tight End, Quarterback, Offensive Tackle, Wide Receiver and Defensive Tackle. Could they be a candidate to trade down? Possibly. 

 

I think that this is Sammy Watkins' floor. I don't envision him falling beyond this point, in which case the Raiders would likely try and grab a QB in the second round like the Bengals with Schaub hedging the bet of a QB falling. Greg Robinson could go here as well and we could see a dark horse candidate at DT go here too like Jernigan or Aaron Donald. It's also possible that they look for outside rush help, but I believe they have so many needs that they will look elsewhere.

 

6. Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons are obviously the most likely team to trade up. If they do so it would probably be to grab Clowney. The Falcons have serious issues on defense in addition to pass protection. With the transition to a 34 it's very possible if not likely that they grab Clowney, Mack or Barr. They could consider Jake Matthews here as well if they stay at this point, but they may muddle through a little longer with Sam Baker. If they don't believe that Sam Baker will be healthy then Jake Matthews is the most obvious pick.

 

7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Buccaneers are another very difficult team to predict. While they have been projected a defensive end, I believe that the Bucs will stay put with Michael Johnson and a healthy Adrian Clayborn. A defensive tackle could be an option here like Jernigan which might help Michael Johnson. They could also look to find their Tampa 2 Mike LB in the draft, but I don't believe a guy like Mosley is worthy of being a first round pick. Quarterback is another option too, but I believe that they would rather wait.

 

Wide Receiver and Tight End could be a possibility here too, but I don't think Watkins will be here, and Mike Evans would not complement Vincent Jackson. This may be the earliest we see Eric Ebron go, but I don't believe he has much value here. Offensive Tackle could be an option too, but they recently handed Anthony Collins a 5 Year $30M deal so he will likely stay at left tackle. Would they draft a right tackle seventh overall? I doubt it.

 

8. Minnesota Vikings: Another team that could use a quarterback. I think this is the earliest Derek Carr could go, but I get the sense that the Vikings may be hesitant to take a chance on a QB this high after being burned with Ponder. Could they consider Bridgewater since they'll eventually be back in a dome? Seeing as it's too early to take an interior offensive lineman I think it's very possible the Vikings add a defensive player. They currently have needs at linebacker, cornerback, strong safety and strongside DE. There's not much value at 43 DE, safety or linebacker at this point, so I would assume they would consider a cornerback. Justin Gilbert would be an intriguing fit. The Vikings are a candidate to trade down if there's some suitors.

 

9. Buffalo Bills: Even though the Bills may have some needs on defense, I think it logically follows that they will seek to surround Manuel with a supporting cast. Supposedly there's some animosity in Buffalo with Stevie Johnson. Robert Woods is a very good player and Marquise Woods could be a very good deep slot receiver. A tall, easy to find wide receiver like Mike Evans may make sense here. Alternatively, the Bills could look at a tight end like Ebron after muddling through at tight end for years. 

 

10. Detroit Lions: Caldwell is committed to Stafford and I think it will be up to him to get the most out of the mercurial quarterback. I think this is the earliest we could see a right tackle go. Taylor Lewan would be an intriguing fit here. The Lion also need serious help in the secondary which seems to be a reoccuring theme. If Gilbert is here he would be a strong consideration. Could see Bradley Roby make an appearance in the Top 10? Safety Clinton-Dix could be an option as well due to the strong need at the position.

 

11. Tennessee Titans: Obviously the most important collectively to the board. First - I don't think the Titans consider a quarterback here. Jake Locker has built up enough goodwill within the organization and I think he offers the Titans a legitimate option in 2014 without having to chase a need. I also don't believe the talent clear enough or great enough in this class to justify a Top 11 pick for any of the quarterbacks anyways. That said, I think the Titans will wisely consider their options later.

 

Right now I think the Titans' greatest needs lay on the defensive side of the ball. With the transition to a 34 one gap defense the Titans are lacking some ideal fits defensively. A pass rush linebacker, at this point, is the greatest need. If Barr or Mack are here, I don't think there's any doubt that they would be the pick. The issue is whether or not either player will be available at 11 which is what predicated earlier moves to add older veterans who could play this year if need be. Dee Ford could present himself as an option if the Titans were able to trade down.

 

34ILB and NT/DE are other potential needs. The Titans lack a 34 strongside ILB but may have to muddle through given the lack of talent at the position. Jernigan could prove to be a very intriguing 34NT which makes him a strong option, but it's also possible they consider Aaron Donald as well even though he may not be a conventional 34 DL. To this point the Titans have given themselves plenty of options on the defensive line which leads me to believe that they would be able to forego a DL pick if necessary, but if they are unable to trade down they may need to settle on a defensive lineman as a matter of BPA. 

 

Although it doesn't represent a strong need, cornerback could be a consideration. Justin Gilbert or Bradley Roby could be considerations even though the Titans have in-house replacements. Bradley Roby in particular may be a strong fit as a man cover corner who can easily play on the line of scrimmage. While I don't believe the Titans would look to add a cornerback given Sensabaugh and Wreh Wilson's presence, I don't think they would be opposed to drafting a cornerback if they believed it to be BPA if no DL or Rush LB were available. 

 

Although it has been mentioned, I don't think Wide Receiver is particularly likely even though it is indeed possible. With Hunter and Wright on the roster the Titans may not find a place for a first round pick unless they were to commit to 3 WR packages. Even then I'm not sure a player like Mike Evans would be a strong fit nor do I believe the talent justifies such a high pick for a team without a strong need. Running back is another option, but it seems more probable for the Titans to address the position in the second round given the available talent.  It is also conceivable that the Titans could consider a right tackle, but it seems very unlikely after the Oher signing even if Oher is not a long-term solution - he is simply being paid too much which represents the idea that the Titans feel he can be a solid starter. 

[JLocker10]

This topic should be changed to what Cyrus wants the Titans do in the 2014 draft

[Cyrus]

This topic should be changed to what Cyrus wants the Titans do in the 2014 draft

 

How so? I'm trying to conceive of some type of rational model on what teams may do. I'm assuming this has to do with the quarterback situation. The Titans owner has said that Locker will be the 2014 starter. The organization has openly endorsed Locker. Wyatt has been reporting that the team is not likely to pick at QB at 11 and would pass on the "top 3". I do not believe that there's any objective, rational way to make an argument for drafting a quarterback based on the facts and context.

[JLocker10]

I suppose if you take everything at face value

 

NFL coaches and GM lie all the time. Dennis Allen recently said Schaub would be the QB for the next several years. I guess we're supposed to believe that too. Or anything that comes out of Gruden's mouth.

 

Gary Kubiak said on on 9/30/13 Matt Schaub was his QB and he believed in him. Couple weeks later he was benched.

[JLocker10]

Who cares what Wyatt says. He's been wrong plenty of times. Still can't forget when all the Tennessean writers including Wyatt said we were going to draft Fairley

[Guest]

Great post Cyrus, as usual. I'd be interested hearing what you think about potentially taking Calvin Pryor or Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix.

 

 

I know safety is not an immediate position of need with Pollard and Griffin, but I think it's equally plausible that one or both players will be gone in a year or two. It seems like every year there is an elite safety prospect perfect suited for the draft slot between 11-15. Is one of these guys an Earl Thomas type player? If so, wouldn't it be worth it for us to strongly consider him?

 

I'm also intrigued by the possibility of Eric Ebron. He is one of the hottest prospects in the draft right now, and is gaining Vernon Davis-esque top ten buzz. I know Mayock in particular has lauded the guy, and I see him as both an option for us and as potential trade bait. 

[NashvilleNinja]

Great post Cyrus, as usual. I'd be interested hearing what you think about potentially taking Calvin Pryor or Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix.

 

 

I know safety is not an immediate position of need with Pollard and Griffin, but I think it's equally plausible that one or both players will be gone in a year or two. It seems like every year there is an elite safety prospect perfect suited for the draft slot between 11-15. Is one of these guys an Earl Thomas type player? If so, wouldn't it be worth it for us to strongly consider him?

 

I'm also intrigued by the possibility of Eric Ebron. He is one of the hottest prospects in the draft right now, and is gaining Vernon Davis-esque top ten buzz. I know Mayock in particular has lauded the guy, and I see him as both an option for us and as potential trade bait. 

 

There's Ha'sean Clinton Dix if you're sold on a safety, or Calvin Pryor, but I doubt either one of them would start this year and that would be such a waste of a 1st rnd pick. They'd be better to wait until later in the draft and look at players like Ahmad Dixon or Marqueston Huff.

 

I'd be all over an Eric Ebron selection. This offense hasn't had a top-tier option at tight end since Wycheck.

[Face]

I thought it was an awesome Cyrus post as usual. I think he was objective, and though I'm in the group that feels WR is more of a possibility than he does, he gave a very rational opinion on the subject.

 

My question to Cyrus is, do you think the Titans are 2-3 picks too far down the board to get one of the really elite talents in this draft? Mike Smith came out & said they're still a 4-3 despite signing all these 3-4 players but I'm 100% convinced that Atlanta is picking Barr, which sucks. I also agree that it's starting to look like Donald & Jernigan are our 2 best options.

[Jonboy]

This draft is certainly hard to peg. I do think there are a few "locks" that make it a little bit easier to try and determine who will be on the board at 11.

 

- Khalil Mack, Jadeveon Clowney, and Greg Robinson are elite talents who will almost certainly go in the top 10, maybe even top 5. I think we can go ahead and remove them from our board unless we want to consider trading up. 

 

- Jake Matthews and Sammy Watkins are pretty close to top 10 locks as well. 

 

- The biggest question mark in this draft is the quarterbacks. Where the first one is taken will play a huge role in how the draft shakes out and who is available at 11.

 

- If the top-10 QB needy teams pull the trigger on QBs, then the Titans will benefit as guys like Anthony Barr, Kony Ealy, Eric Ebron, Mike Evans and Taylor Lewan will be there for the taking at #11.  

 

- I'm starting to think the most likely scenario is the QBs fall. Three months ago I would have said it's impossible, but I do think there's a very real possibility the premier defenders are gone and Bridgewater, Bortles, and Manziel are all there when we pick at 11. At that point, the Titans will have a huge decision to make: take a QB, attempt to trade down, or perhaps overdraft someone on the defensive side of the ball. 

 

- Trading down is easier said than done. I feel like we say almost every year that it would be a good idea to trade down (and it would...especially this year with our lack of a 3rd rounder). Unfortunately, it doesn't always work out. 

 

My take: If we have our pick of the litter at QB, I honestly don't see how you pass that up. If the QBs go early, then we reap the reward of the best defender who falls. If you can trade down to get back a 3rd rounder and still get one of those defenders (preferably, a pass rusher), then go for it. 

[JLocker10]

I thought it was an awesome Cyrus post as usual. I think he was objective, and though I'm in the group that feels WR is more of a possibility than he does, he gave a very rational opinion on the subject.

 

My question to Cyrus is, do you think the Titans are 2-3 picks too far down the board to get one of the really elite talents in this draft? Mike Smith came out & said they're still a 4-3 despite signing all these 3-4 players but I'm 100% convinced that Atlanta is picking Barr, which sucks. I also agree that it's starting to look like Donald & Jernigan are our 2 best options.

I know. I'm just giving him a hard time.

 

Still can't forget him mocking Matt Barkley at 7 last year though

[Omar]

Good write up Cyrus.

 

I change my mind almost daily, but today I am on the Timmy Jernigan bandwagon. Just seems like a very athletic, strong, disruptive force in the middle of the DL. That type of player just makes the whole defense better, him and Casey would be a hell of a pair in the middle. He played big in the biggest games.

 

Ask me tomorrow and it could be Barr, Ealy, or even Eric Ebron.

[NashvilleNinja]

My take: If we have our pick of the litter at QB, I honestly don't see how you pass that up. If the QBs go early, then we reap the reward of the best defender who falls. If you can trade down to get back a 3rd rounder and still get one of those defenders (preferably, a pass rusher), then go for it. 

 

We probably won't have our pick of QB. We'll have whatever is left, who'll probably be Manziel. Jacksonville and Houston both have a strong need at QB. Bridgewater and Bortles both could be their picks.

 

But even if we did, QB likely isn't happening. Not if ownership and the coaches are to be believed. I know you want Bridgewater, but there are better players available on defense (and offense), relatively speaking, and we are in a weird position of maybe needing a QB but not necessarily needing a QB. As much as you want to move on from Locker, he's reportedly going to be the starter in 2014 and you don't draft a guy in the 1st round just to sit him on the bench. I think we see the folly in that now given what happened with Locker (should've been starting from day 1).

 

Donald, Ebron, Barr... I think those are the top three guys we should be targeting, along with keeping a weather eye on the horizon in case Mack falls.

[Face]

This draft is certainly hard to peg. I do think there are a few "locks" that make it a little bit easier to try and determine who will be on the board at 11.

 

- Khalil Mack, Jadeveon Clowney, and Greg Robinson are elite talents who will almost certainly go in the top 10, maybe even top 5. I think we can go ahead and remove them from our board unless we want to consider trading up. 

 

- Jake Matthews and Sammy Watkins are pretty close to top 10 locks as well. 

 

- The biggest question mark in this draft is the quarterbacks. Where the first one is taken will play a huge role in how the draft shakes out and who is available at 11.

 

- If the top-10 QB needy teams pull the trigger on QBs, then the Titans will benefit as guys like Anthony Barr, Kony Ealy, Eric Ebron, Mike Evans and Taylor Lewan will be there for the taking at #11.  

 

- I'm starting to think the most likely scenario is the QBs fall. Three months ago I would have said it's impossible, but I do think there's a very real possibility the premier defenders are gone and Bridgewater, Bortles, and Manziel are all there when we pick at 11. At that point, the Titans will have a huge decision to make: take a QB, attempt to trade down, or perhaps overdraft someone on the defensive side of the ball. 

 

- Trading down is easier said than done. I feel like we say almost every year that it would be a good idea to trade down (and it would...especially this year with our lack of a 3rd rounder). Unfortunately, it doesn't always work out. 

 

My take: If we have our pick of the litter at QB, I honestly don't see how you pass that up. If the QBs go early, then we reap the reward of the best defender who falls. If you can trade down to get back a 3rd rounder and still get one of those defenders (preferably, a pass rusher), then go for it. 

 

Pretty much agree, though I doubt very much all 3 QB's will be there. I absolutely think one will be though, and perhaps even 2. I think I overlooked Barr, I didn't realize how good he is. For all of this talk about how he's raw, just switched positions, etc, he had an awful lot of sacks the last 2 years. I was really hoping Atlanta would reach for Kony Ealy, who I don't like, because he's a traditional 4-3 DE, but thats out the window, no matter what Mike Smith says about staying in the 4-3.

 

Unfortunately I think we're just a few picks too low on the board to nab the real top talents, though of course you never know who will really work out. But man, this would have been a great year to be 5-11. We need pass rush help in a big way, and I think Clowney, Mack, and Barr are rare talents. I'm pretty sure they'll be gone by 11 so at that point you're looking at Donald, Jernigan, maybe Evans or an OT as the top non QB. I can't imagine they'd take an OT even though it might be the best value at 11, so I'm really thinking one of the 2 DT's, which I'm OK with. I can see TB surprising though & taking Donald, the guy was born to be a Tampa 2 DT. But I think we're pretty good at DT, we have some pretty good players & depth. So you have to wonder if the top 10 shakes out a certain way if it really makes sense to pick a QB? Even though they each have their detractors, I'd be pretty tempted to pull the trigger on Teddy or Manziel if there.

[Cyrus]

I know. I'm just giving him a hard time.

 

Still can't forget him mocking Matt Barkley at 7 last year though

 

You have to be bold sometimes. I still think that Barkley is a good player and I hope that he gets a greater chance to play at some point.

 

I personally think Anthony Barr is an elite talent. He still needs some development and isn't a finished product - but he has exceptional tools and he has been productive. My hope is that he falls to 11 and I think this is the best case scenario for the Titans. I think that Ebron is an interesting guy but my concern is that he never becomes more than a red-chip guy in the NFL, if that. He's not Vernon Davis athletically and I wish he would play "bigger". I'm not in love with Ealy and I think he's quite raw but has tools. I wouldn't take him in the first round because I don't think there's a high degree of confidence that he becomes anything more than a rotational rusher. Dee Ford is definitely a better option in that sense, he has a high floor with tools. He may never be an elite guy but he'll play a long time in the league.

 

Quarterbacks are obviously the major wildcard and I think after Manziel's pro day that he's a lock to go in the Top 10. Hopefully three QBs go Top 10. (Texans, Browns and Vikings) I also think that the tackles are a bit of a wildcard too. The Falcons could very easily take Matthews given Sam Baker's injury history.

 

My belief right now is that Barr and Mack are gone. Anyone reading the general forum knows I'm not real in love with Evans. Watkins will be gone by 11 too. I don't think there's any value for WR at 11 and the draft is too deep with other intriguing guys to grab one at poor value at the top of the first. I think that there's going to be decent value on DL prospects at 11 and this is probably where the Titans will need to look (Top 15/20 guys). Donald, Jernigan, Tuitt and Nix are all possibilities (I like Hageman too - but off-field questions are supposedly an issue). Both Notre Dame prospects are real engimas - boom or bust prospects which doesn't give me a lot of confidence. Donald has enough strength to be play multiple positions, but his best fit is at 3-tech. Jernigan is the best fit schematically - but does he have great value there? Not sure, but he would be a solid pick nonetheless. 

 

I'm a big fan of Bradley Roby and I think there's an outside chance they could add a cornerback if they believe it to be the best value. I'm not sure how everyone sees Roby but his stock has seemingly gone up recently - I imagine it will continue to do so up until the draft. My opinion on him is quite clear: Blue-chip, shutdown, elite potential. I would have no qualms with him at 11 but the Titans don't have a strong need there and I see it as unlikely they would consider him. Could they really like a guy like Justin Gilbert? I don't know. But it's a possibility and they could conceivably draft one if other options were exhausted.

 

I don't think there's many bad picks for the Titans unless they grab someone like Mike Evans or CJ Mosley (who is massively overvalued in the first round). Webster has given the team flexibility at a number of positions and they could upgrade anywhere on the DL (outside of Casey) and it's easy to rotate in guys like Al Woods and Pitoitua even if they're not starting. 34 Rush LB is easily the greatest need mid to long-term even if they have stop gaps. Tre Mason or Carlos Hyde should be there in the second round and Hyde would be an excellent fit all around and would have very good value there. 

 

As for quarterback, none of these guys have a high degree of confidence in being a franchise quarterback. There's no sense in taking one in the first round with Locker on the roster. The margin between Locker being a franchise QB and any drafted guy is not large enough to take one at 11. They're better off playing the odds and grabbing one later and see what happens with Locker. None of these guys are can't-miss and Whisenhunt/Webster have the luxury of time.

 

I think Bridgewater is easily the best QB in the draft but he has potential physical limitations (particularly grip / hand size) that I highlighted months ago. He's a very good college quarterback but I'm concerned that his lack of grip will impact his ability to throw with velocity AND accuracy at the second and third levels in the NFL. (Tight windows). The positives with Bridgewater is that he's smart, tough and has the instincts for the position. If I were pressed to take a QB at 11 it would obviously be him, but I would be concerned that his physical limitations would prevent him from being a truly great quarterback. He's going to play in the league barring injury for a long time, but will he be a back-up or top starter? I don't know - there's a very large range of projection with him and I think it's a mistake to believe that his physical limitations are not an issue. JLocker10 mentioned my opinion on Barkley. Honestly - what's the difference between Barkley and Bridgewater? (outside of the shoulder injury) Not much, truly. 

 

I would rather take a guy like Mettenberger later and I don't see a huge disparity in their NFL prospects. Certainly there's higher confidence in Bridgewater but Mettenberger has very good traits and projects well. who knows how these guys will pan out though and they'll be highly dependent on where they go and how they mesh with the scheme and staff. All I know is that I wouldn't touch Manziel and that Bortles is way less developed than people believe. 

[TampaTitan]

Good write up Cyrus.

 

I change my mind almost daily, but today I am on the Timmy Jernigan bandwagon. Just seems like a very athletic, strong, disruptive force in the middle of the DL. That type of player just makes the whole defense better, him and Casey would be a hell of a pair in the middle. He played big in the biggest games.

 

Ask me tomorrow and it could be Barr, Ealy, or even Eric Ebron.

Not sure I could contain myself. Instant fan favorite, guaranteed.