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Jamal's 2012 Fantasy Forecast


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In this Fantasy Football themed podcast, Two Tone Crew co-host Jamal is joined by brother Levin and Asher Mathews of tfds.com. The first of a multi-part series, the group looks to identify notably mis-ranked players leading up to fantasy drafts. Who is overrated and who are the diamonds in the rough?

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The history for running backs returning their first year from ACL surgery is really ugly. I don't think I can draft Jamaal Charles or AP. I'm hoping to get Hillis on my bench though.

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I'm considering taking a shot at Charles as a #2 RB if the value is there in the 3rd or 4th round of my keeper league. The timing of his knee injury is the only reason I make take that chance.

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If Hillis gets Thomas Jones treatment, he's not the worst bye week fill-in and can probably be nabbed really late. I'm still surprised people doubt AP... but maybe I've been reading @CMJ too much.

I realize that medical technology has gotten better but has there ever been a running back whose first year performance post-surgery was even above-average? I wish I could find the statistics, but a few months ago I saw a chart with a number of RBs post-acl and the numbers were hideous. Historically, there's nothing that would suggest that Adrian Peterson could bounce back so quickly in the first year back.

As for Hillis, it's kind of the same thing as with AP. The Chiefs don't really use Jamaal Charles in the redzone much anyways and he's returning from ACL surgery which would normally limit his touches. That means that whoever the goal line / change of pace back is in KC is going to get a lot of work.

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It's hard to know because it isn't all that frequent. I'm struggling to even think of the major backs who have had knee injuries in their prime (recently). Jamal Lewis as about a decade ago, I think, and he's the most recent that comes to mind. Who am I missing?

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To be honest, I don't remember who was on the chart and it's a fair point that you bring up. However, gambling on a running back after a late season ACL surgery doesn't seem like a good risk. There's a lot of atrophy associated with ACL surgery and it's prone to inflammation and swelling. For a guy who's going to be taking hits to his legs, I'm not sure if I want to be one with him on my team.

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To be honest, I don't remember who was on the chart and it's a fair point that you bring up. However, gambling on a running back after a late season ACL surgery doesn't seem like a good risk. There's a lot of atrophy associated with ACL surgery and it's prone to inflammation and swelling. For a guy who's going to be taking hits to his legs, I'm not sure if I want to be one with him on my team.

Which is why you can't draft Charles as a #1.

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Which is why you can't draft Charles as a #1.

Would you rather have Charles as your RB2 with a 3.9 round ADP or Steven Jackson with a 5.7 round ADP? I know I'd definitely rather have Steven Jackson in the late 5th round than Adrian Peterson in the late 2nd.

Or rather, would you rather have Mike Wallace/Hakeem Nicks/Julio Jones and Steven Jackson or Percy Harvin/Dwayne Bowe/Kenny Britt and Jamaal Charles?

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Would you rather have Charles as your RB2 with a 3.9 round ADP or Steven Jackson with a 5.7 round ADP? I know I'd definitely rather have Steven Jackson in the late 5th round than Adrian Peterson in the late 2nd.

Or rather, would you rather have Mike Wallace/Hakeem Nicks/Julio Jones and Steven Jackson or Percy Harvin/Dwayne Bowe/Kenny Britt and Jamaal Charles?

That really depends on how the scoring system is setup as well as if it's a keeperdynasty league or a standard one.I run a league where we keep 4 players, 2 on offense and 2 on defense, so all the good RB's are usually gone by the 2nd round anyway. That is why I don't put any stock into ADP.

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That really depends on how the scoring system is setup as well as if it's a keeperdynasty league or a standard one.I run a league where we keep 4 players, 2 on offense and 2 on defense, so all the good RB's are usually gone by the 2nd round anyway. That is why I don't put any stock into ADP.

Ah well that's a totally different scenario. :) Hypothetically then? Personally, even though it's a deep WR year I'd like to grab a higher tier WR2. The RB2 group is a bit if a mixed bag so I may take a bounce-back veteran and throw a bunch of guys in the bench while I take a WR2 that I can probably get good predictable returns from.

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Any over/under-rated guys to add to the list, and what would you like us to discuss on the next one?

Overrated:

Darren McFadden

Trent Richardson

Cam Newton

Victor Cruz

Steve Smith

Demaryius Thomas

Any Redskins running back

Aaron Hernandez

Underrated:

Demarco Murray

Torrey Smith

Stevie Johnson

Peyton Hillis

Tony Romo

CJ Spiller

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