OILERMAN Posted July 17, 2014 Report Share Posted July 17, 2014 Kaep has to play 80% of the snaps, make 1st or 2nd all pro and SF has to make the SB in 2014, or his 2015 base goes down... each year he doesn't reach those incentives his base the following year drops another multiple of 2 mill. So in 2017 if he hasn't done all 3(he won't) his 2017 base is 8 mill instead of the scheduled 16.5 mill. An 8 mill base in 2017 will likely be dirt cheap. SF got over big time on Kaep and the Bengals would give that deal to Dalton in a heart beat Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
OILERMAN Posted July 17, 2014 Report Share Posted July 17, 2014 Out of curiosity, what's the cap hit on our OL? 21.5 mill not counting Lewan Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
abenjami Posted July 18, 2014 Author Report Share Posted July 18, 2014 Here's an interesting stat. If you look at the top 100 players in terms of cap hit next season, 16 of the top 50 are QB's. Then there are zero QB's from 51-100. In other words, if you have a solid QB you pay him because otherwise you have no shot at winning a Super Bowl. Sure, you could draft a rookie and pay him less but he most likely won't win you a Super Bowl until year 4 or 5 when you've gotta start paying him those dollars anyway. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Face Posted July 18, 2014 Report Share Posted July 18, 2014 (edited) You get the QB that you feel has the best chance of success. If you can trade a lower pick for a QB, does that mean he has a higher ceiling and chance of success than a 1st round QB? If so then why is he worth a lower round pick? Do your evals. Trust your scouts and make the pick. Bring in a vet in FA or via trade as well if you feel it's warranted. But right now, we focus on Locker and hope it doesn't come to that. Oh yeah you're a 100% right it's just that this team has turned me into an emotional basket case. All kidding aside I think we have pretty good roster talent & Im tired of waiting for a QB to put it together. Hopefully Locker makes this a moot point though. Edited July 18, 2014 by Face reo 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldschool Posted July 18, 2014 Report Share Posted July 18, 2014 A red herring that accounts for 10% of cap allocation! Having your QB suck up 10% of the cap is nothing. NFL contracts favor the teams in every possible way. Come up with a better argument. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superhorn Posted July 18, 2014 Report Share Posted July 18, 2014 As of right now, Kaep's cap hit next season is #10 at the QB position. Chances are it will be closer to #15 once some other deals get redone. In other words, his cap hit is middle of the road for his position. True. But, of those guys above him (in order - Romo, Brees, P. Manning, E. Manning, Ryan, Roethlisberger, Rodgers, Stafford, Rivers), only Brees, Manning and Rodgers are capable of carrying their teams while they are burdened with their contracts. Making a player that - again, in my opinion - is only above average the highest paid player on the team isn't something I'd do as a GM. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superhorn Posted July 18, 2014 Report Share Posted July 18, 2014 Basically you don't think either guy is worth a second deal, so you'd rather keep the worse player since he gives you the best shot at drafting a new one? Eh. Not really. For Dalton, yes. I don't think he'll be worth the money he'll command. For Locker, it's different because he won't command that kind of money. My position is basically that if you want to be in contention to win the league you either need: a) an elite QB or a great team with at least an adequate quarterback. I think it's very challenging to build a great team with above average QB that's being paid 10-15+% of the cap space. Sticking with Locker one of two things happen. Either he fizzles and you go back to the drawing board. Or, he plays well enough to get paid a middle of the road contract. Both these situations allow you to keep rebuilding this team from the inside out, which is the way I'd prefer to build a team. At the end of the day, we do need a QB that's at least above average to be meaningfully competitive. That's not lost on me. scine09 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superhorn Posted July 18, 2014 Report Share Posted July 18, 2014 Here's an interesting stat. If you look at the top 100 players in terms of cap hit next season, 16 of the top 50 are QB's. Then there are zero QB's from 51-100. In other words, if you have a solid QB you pay him because otherwise you have no shot at winning a Super Bowl. Sure, you could draft a rookie and pay him less but he most likely won't win you a Super Bowl until year 4 or 5 when you've gotta start paying him those dollars anyway. Seahawks just managed to win the Super Bowl with a QB on his rookie deal. 49ers have been Nationally competitive with a QB on his rookie deal. This is a relatively new phenomenon, too. New rookie wage scale is only a few years old. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
abenjami Posted July 18, 2014 Author Report Share Posted July 18, 2014 Eh. Not really. For Dalton, yes. I don't think he'll be worth the money he'll command. For Locker, it's different because he won't command that kind of money. My position is basically that if you want to be in contention to win the league you either need: a) an elite QB or a great team with at least an adequate quarterback. I think it's very challenging to build a great team with above average QB that's being paid 10-15+% of the cap space. Sticking with Locker one of two things happen. Either he fizzles and you go back to the drawing board. Or, he plays well enough to get paid a middle of the road contract. Both these situations allow you to keep rebuilding this team from the inside out, which is the way I'd prefer to build a team. At the end of the day, we do need a QB that's at least above average to be meaningfully competitive. That's not lost on me. I get your theory but who are these adequate QB's not making money? And when they do break out and become "good enough to win with" then they are only cheap for a season or two before they become highly paid. I just don't see how you are going to pay a QB better than Dalton less money unless you get lucky in the draft. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superhorn Posted July 18, 2014 Report Share Posted July 18, 2014 Having your QB suck up 10% of the cap is nothing. NFL contracts favor the teams in every possible way. Come up with a better argument. It's not really an argument. It's my opinion and how I'd handle the situation. I can't on board with paying an above average QB the most money of any player on the team. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
OILERMAN Posted July 18, 2014 Report Share Posted July 18, 2014 If Locker plays well enough to be kept I do not think he'll get a "middle of the road contract". They'll have to either franchise him or pony up to keep him off the market Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
abenjami Posted July 18, 2014 Author Report Share Posted July 18, 2014 Seahawks just managed to win the Super Bowl with a QB on his rookie deal. 49ers have been Nationally competitive with a QB on his rookie deal. This is a relatively new phenomenon, too. New rookie wage scale is only a few years old. Right but Russell Wilson was the exception to the rule. That's not going to keep happening. Unless of course Wilson is the next Brady or Big Ben. And IMO if the Niners had a better QB the past few seasons, they'd have won a championship. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
abenjami Posted July 18, 2014 Author Report Share Posted July 18, 2014 If Locker plays well enough to be kept I do not think he'll get a "middle of the road contract". They'll have to either franchise him or pony up to keep him off the market Agreed. For Christ sake Arizona has to pay like $8M for shitty Carson Palmer. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superhorn Posted July 18, 2014 Report Share Posted July 18, 2014 I get your theory but who are these adequate QB's not making money? And when they do break out and become "good enough to win with" then they are only cheap for a season or two before they become highly paid. I just don't see how you are going to pay a QB better than Dalton less money unless you get lucky in the draft. It's an opportunity cost thing. And, it's an insanely difficult situation for me if I'm the GM of the Bengals. He's just good enough to keep them consistently competitive for as long as he plays. Jeff Fisher competitive. But, between him and the money that AJ Green is about to command...it's the Lions all over again. People want to win now, and Dalton would help with that, but I don't think he'd ever get us to the highest levels. I like the Seahawks method. Build without a QB. And, you're right, you do have to get lucky to an extent in the draft. But, the Seahawks would be really good without Wilson too. I think the same could be said for the 49ers (we saw this pre-Kaep). Build from the inside out. Become excellent at the fundamentals and create an environment where you're a QB away from competing for the whole thing. Now, were my opinion that Dalton could become upper echelon (Brees, Manning, Rodgers, etc), then I would gladly pay him that money. I'd give Wilson a monster contract. I think he's worth it. I'm kind of in the minority, but I love what Webster's doing. HIs approach is the right one, IMO. scine09 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superhorn Posted July 18, 2014 Report Share Posted July 18, 2014 If Locker plays well enough to be kept I do not think he'll get a "middle of the road contract". They'll have to either franchise him or pony up to keep him off the market I don't see a scenario where he commands the same kind of contract that Kaep and Flacco have received. I think it would be far less. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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