OILERMAN Posted May 31, 2014 Report Share Posted May 31, 2014 Good thing wins count as wins I guess. Which has nothing to do with anything being discussed Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamalisms Posted June 1, 2014 Report Share Posted June 1, 2014 Considering the Titans beat other bad teams outside the division in head to head matchups with consistency, there is no reasonable conclusion but that they're better than those teams in those years. They've pretty much been the top of the bottom third for at least the last three years as a whole. Any argument to the contrary is nonsense. They played the other teams. They beat those teams. They finished right there in the 10 range twice and the 20 range the other time. Top of the bottom third. They are what they are, which can be phrased many ways and one of them is the best of the bad. That said, another way to describe them based on results over time is that they have a high floor and low ceiling. They beat bad teams, never beat good ones (though they got closer in 2013). That matters for Super Bowl odds because the other bad teams may be viewed as more likely to get hot and go on a run. Are the Titans, then, close because they have a high floor? Maybe. They lack proven difference makers so you could argue that they don't need to improve overall but get some high performers to carry the team and that's not necessarily an easy incremental change from year to year. Then again, you could argue that with better coaching players will emerge. You can argue about anything, except that the Titans got lucky (or it doesnt matter when assessing th team) to finish with better records than the other bad teams (like Oakland)... because they beat them head to head. This was a year of change. If the changes don't make the team better on the field in year one, those other bad teams could pass the Titans. Depends on how you personally view the offseason. Oh, and lol at people pointing to Vegas. The Titans are predicted at 7 wins but they're only favored in 4 games and somehow they're the 2nd lowest odds for a Superbowl win. That makes sense. Maybe recognize that their goal isn't accuracy. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
OILERMAN Posted June 1, 2014 Report Share Posted June 1, 2014 Oh, and lol at people pointing to Vegas. The Titans are predicted at 7 wins but they're only favored in 4 games and somehow they're the 2nd lowest odds for a Superbowl win. That makes sense. Maybe recognize that their goal isn't accuracy. It makes perfect sense actually, those are all completely different bets with completely different variables. 7 wins is reasonable with their division and their schedule Being favored in 4 games total right now is also reasonable. Post games they should be favored in right now were they ain't. Factoring in what it takes to win the SB and beating quality teams in the playoffs the Titans are def one of the worst with their QB situation and lack of pass rushing. LOL@ questioning Vegas, their predictions are scary good and their analysis is 1000 better than media or retired brain damaged players. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Denali Posted June 1, 2014 Report Share Posted June 1, 2014 It makes perfect sense actually, those are all completely different bets with completely different variables. 7 wins is reasonable with their division and their schedule Being favored in 4 games total right now is also reasonable. Post games they should be favored in right now were they ain't. Factoring in what it takes to win the SB and beating quality teams in the playoffs the Titans are def one of the worst with their QB situation and lack of pass rushing. LOL@ questioning Vegas, their predictions are scary good and their analysis is 1000 better than media or retired brain damaged players. Exactly. @Jamalisms post actually offers up an excellent rationale for the predictions that Vegas came up, even though he didn't intend it to be. That "low ceiling" is why Vegas gives them such long odds to win the Super Bowl, and their ability to beat lousy teams is why Vegas predicts that they will win 7 games, even though Vegas only favors them in 4. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamalisms Posted June 1, 2014 Report Share Posted June 1, 2014 4 and 7 are not different things. Either they predict a win or they don't. Add them up, they don't equal. There's no reconciling that difference. Superbowl odds can be different because it isn't strictly win-loss... but that depends on what you use it to represent. If you use it to represent odds of a Superbowl victory, it is what it is and it's different. If you use it, claiming it is as an accurate gauge of team merit because Vegas, it's conflicting with the other guages from the same source... and that was the use referred to. Beyond those, Vegas isn't going for accuracy as a matter of strict prediction so using them as a gauge is always at least a bit off. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctm Posted June 1, 2014 Report Share Posted June 1, 2014 Football Outsiders ranked the Titans 21st at the end of 2013. That included a ranking of 16th for offense, 22nd for defense and 26th for ST. That's very similar to where I said they should rank (22nd) when Evan Silva said they had the worst roster in the league. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
OILERMAN Posted June 1, 2014 Report Share Posted June 1, 2014 4 and 7 are not different things. Either they predict a win or they don't. Add them up, they don't equal. There's no reconciling that difference. Gee I guess Vegas is smart enough to know they can't actually predict which games the Titans will win and smart enough to know that just because they don't favor them to win some games they will actually win some of them. If you don't know the difference in trying to predict one game out of 16 compared to trying to predict one season of 16 games then there isn't much hope explaining it to you. They are different things and they are easily explained as different things. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-RAC Posted June 1, 2014 Report Share Posted June 1, 2014 4 and 7 are not different things. It can be. I didn't check it, but if 6 games are toss-ups, the Titans can be expected to win 3 of those. That would account for 7 overall while only being favored in 4. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
OILERMAN Posted June 1, 2014 Report Share Posted June 1, 2014 Football Outsiders ranked the Titans 21st at the end of 2013. That included a ranking of 16th for offense, 22nd for defense and 26th for ST. This isn't relevant in Vegas setting the odds we speak of. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
OILERMAN Posted June 1, 2014 Report Share Posted June 1, 2014 It can be. I didn't check it, but if 6 games are toss-ups, the Titans can be expected to win 3 of those. That would account for 7 overall while only being favored in 4. I believe 4 games were considered a push off memory Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctm Posted June 1, 2014 Report Share Posted June 1, 2014 This isn't relevant in Vegas setting the odds we speak of. Vegas is being cited as a form of evidence for where the Titans rank in the league. That's what this whole discussion is about. There are other, such as football outsiders, forms of evidence. Vegas is not the end all, be all authority. And that's not to mention the fact that vegas is setting a betting line which is not entirely identical to a prediction. The objective of a betting line to get 50% of the money on each side of the wager. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-RAC Posted June 1, 2014 Report Share Posted June 1, 2014 I believe 4 games were considered a push off memory Even still, oddsmakers don't consider a favored team as a 100% chance to win. So you have to account for upsets when calculating over-unders. For example, if a 6-point favorite represents a 75% chance to win and a team is a 6-point dog in all 16 games, then you set their over-under on wins at 4. See what I mean? It doesn't mean 4=0. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
OILERMAN Posted June 1, 2014 Report Share Posted June 1, 2014 Even still, oddsmakers don't consider a favored team as a 100% chance to win. So you have to account for upsets when calculating over-unders. For example, if a 6-point favorite represents a 75% chance to win and a team is a 6-point dog in all 16 games, then you set their over-under on wins at 4. See what I mean? It doesn't mean 4=0. I totally understand, it's pretty simple really Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
OILERMAN Posted June 1, 2014 Report Share Posted June 1, 2014 Vegas is being cited as a form of evidence for where the Titans rank in the league. That's what this whole discussion is about. Actually that was debated more in the Silva thread. This whole discussion was about Vegas having the Titans favored to reach certain goals. And where the Titans "rank" is totally up for interpretation. The NFL ranked them where they drafted, it's totally an opinion where they rank right now and the 2014 season. I actually don't think how many head to head games the Titans are favored to win as being very telling. Last year at this time the Titans were favored to win 2 games over the 16 game schedule, they won 7. I believe their over/under last season at this time was 6.5. There were 2-4 teams with a less chance of winning the SB at this time last season. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
OILERMAN Posted June 1, 2014 Report Share Posted June 1, 2014 We can always go back to the prediction threads the last couple of seasons and get a good laugh. I nailed the last two seasons. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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