Grantland: "Are We Witnessing the Rise of Jake Locker?"

[Cyrus]

http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/75752/are-we-witnessing-the-rise-of-jake-locker

 

Just hit Grantland a few moments ago. Sports Illustrated will be posting an article on Locker Friday. I've yet to read it, but I'm assuming it's a must-read. Thoughts to follow.

 

Edit: Just finished reading it and I'm not sure what to think. Barnwell shows some passes and talks about Locker's ability/mistakes because he doesn't really answer the question he proposes. "Are we witnessing the rise of Jake Locker?" He doesn't really say his opinion, just that he'll continue to watch Jake Locker.

 

And I want to put on my semantic hat here for a moment. Jake Locker is not "overthrowing" receivers here. Locker is throwing to a spot. On the post route Locker's pass hits the imaginary plane aligned with the left goal post in the middle of the endzone. The pass is early - yes, but the receiver isn't what Locker is attempting to throw to, it's the spot which he hits. Locker misses the opportunity, that's given but it's not a function of inaccuracy it's a function of timing. (which I think is a lack of chemistry really - but needs to be resolved and Locker is a huge part of that).

[Jonboy]

Peter King has been teasing the SI article all week. I'm looking forward to it. 

[Jamalisms]

Glad they talked about deep ball accuracy instead of knee-jerkin that he must be good at it because of the TD.

Probably more negative overall than I expected, though. Definitely more negative than discussions around here about that SD game.

[Cyrus]

Glad they talked about deep ball accuracy instead of knee-jerkin that he must be good at it because of the TD.

Probably more negative overall than I expected, though. Definitely more negative than discussions around here about that SD game.

 

In the gameday thread I mentioned that the pass could have been better to Hunter. It looked better on replay, but my initial impression was that the TD was mainly the result of Hunter and that Locker was giving him a chance to make the play.

 

I think that the misses to Walker and Williams are functions of the offense and lack of chemistry. Just not being able to connect rather than inaccuracy. ("Overthrows").

[Jamalisms]

One of the things I have been considering doing... and maybe it should be a site-wide All-22 offseason project because I don't have the time... is to gif every throw of his career and divide them into buckets by type of throw. I think that would be a fascinating thing to review.

[Jonboy]

"It's just funny to consider that, when we start thinking about two-minute drills and who wins games, had Gilchrist held on to this pick, after a week or two passed and the highlights went into storage, we would have looked back and noted that Locker couldn't come up with a game-winning drive when his team needed him."

 

These are the kind of quotes that really get under my skin and I'm so thankful it didn't happen. It would have been a complete tragedy, not to mention inaccurate, to blame this "loss" on Locker. "Couldn't come up with a game-winning drive when his team needed him." Gimme a break. It's just completely ridiculous considering the INT would have been 100% on Walker, not to mention the 4 prior drops and at least 2 missed PI calls. Sadly, fans (even some from TR who I won't name) were already starting to lay the blame on him before the game even ended.  

[Jonboy]

Finished the article and while I agree with parts of it, there are many aspects that are just flat-out unfair for someone claiming to do an objective analysis. I'm at work or I would write out a more in-depth response. 

[Number9]

Locker has come a long way.  You can go back through any performance and make a case for a lot of different things.  When Johnson goes up and makes those kind of catches Hunter made, how often does anybody say Stafford could have made a better throw.  The game was on the line, that was a great throw in a pressure situation.  I think the lack of ints does mean something.  Can he make all the throws in the future?  We just have to see.  But he is making a lot of progress.

[cenj]

That article is pretty spot on, but probably too critical for most around here.

 

People shouldn't be blowing off the high passes -- there's a trend there and it's still a major concern. Locker sails a lot of balls and lacks consistent deep accuracy at the moment -- the numbers are not good. He's a developing QB though and is still getting in sync with his WRs, so I'm willing to give him time to build on that. Can't expect him to be perfect. It may correct itself as he builds chemistry with everyone not name Nate and the offense gets its timing down.

 

That rollout pass to Washington was interesting because Wright was wide open and waving his hands for a couple seconds to get Jake's attention, who was locked onto Washington. Wright was the better pass and could have turned upfield, but this is really just nitpicking.

 

[edit: Cyrus -- I know you hate people who rip on that as a lack of accuracy, and many on this board clearly disagree on what constitutes accuracy (I think understanding timing and hitting a moving target factor into accuracy).]

[scine09]

Locker has come a long way.  You can go back through any performance and make a case for a lot of different things.  When Johnson goes up and makes those kind of catches Hunter made, how often does anybody say Stafford could have made a better throw.  The game was on the line, that was a great throw in a pressure situation.  I think the lack of ints does mean something.  Can he make all the throws in the future?  We just have to see.  But he is making a lot of progress.

That's a great point. A ton of the QB's that are consider upper tier throw the ball high and expect their WR to win the battle. Matt Schaub did that at the end of the game against the Titans. But how many times have guys like Schaub, Stafford, Matt Ryan, even Andy Dalton just thrown the ball up, far from perfectly, but up enough that they expect that their all pro WR will win the battle. Tom Brady made a living on this when he had Randy Moss. Same with Daunte Culpepper.

[cenj]

The Hunter TD was not a perfect pass, but he obviously gave the WR a chance to make a play. Hunter could also have jumped to catch it at its highest point, which would have made it look better. Still, this is a bit nitpicky for what was a well arcing deep pass.

[Cyrus]

edit: Cyrus -- I know you hate people who rip on that as a lack of accuracy, and many on this board clearly disagrees on what constitutes accuracy (I think understanding timing and hitting a moving target factor into accuracy).]

 

It's statistically driven which is the issue. Completion / incompletion factors into a completion percentage which we commonly regard as a function of accuracy. When I think about accuracy in a qualitative sense, I think about ball "location". Where is the quarterback putting the ball? You can have poor ball location on completed passes and excellent ball location on incompleted passes. 

 

I think over a large enough sample size you should see ball location correspond with completion percentage, but that still doesn't take into factors like scheme / receiver consistency etc. 

[cenj]

That's a great point. A ton of the QB's that are consider upper tier throw the ball high and expect their WR to win the battle. Matt Schaub did that at the end of the game against the Titans. But how many times have guys like Schaub, Stafford, Matt Ryan, even Andy Dalton just thrown the ball up, far from perfectly, but up enough that they expect that their all pro WR will win the battle. Tom Brady made a living on this when he had Randy Moss. Same with Daunte Culpepper.

 

To be fair, too many posters on here lack respect for those throws. Schaub placed some beautiful balls high and to the sideline. They were much better balls than the Hunter throw, which was to the inside shoulder of the WR.

[Jamalisms]

 

To be fair, too many posters on here lack respect for those throws.

Yep.

[cenj]

It's statistically driven which is the issue. Completion / incompletion factors into a completion percentage which we commonly regard as a function of accuracy. When I think about accuracy in a qualitative sense, I think about ball "location". Where is the quarterback putting the ball? You can have poor ball location on completed passes and excellent ball location on incompleted passes. 

 

I think over a large enough sample size you should see ball location correspond with completion percentage, but that still doesn't take into factors like scheme / receiver consistency etc. 

 

I'm not sure I buy the statistically driven argument. I'm certainly not basing it on numbers (never even knew the numbers until I read that article).

 

Throwing to a spot is one thing. Throwing to a spot so that the moving target arrives at the spot at the same time as the ball -- that's what Locker currently has a problem with on many deep throws. Especially throws down the middle. Define it however you want. I'm hoping it's just a timing issue with the WRs that can be worked out.

 

The fact Locker throws a lot of balls high on shorter throws too makes it harder for me to blow off.