ChemEngr79

I am sure Jared is working on Phase 2...

So the Fed drops interest rates to 0% and starts large scale QE again. The Dow still tanks > 3000 points... Looks like Trump autographed a dead cat bounce on Friday...

Trump riffing is soo sad at this point...he should just stop talking...

Sadly, they will point to these failures as a reason to de-construct further... Same game plan that has been employed for 40 years...

Brutal manufacturing numbers coming out... https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/survey/empire/empire2020/esms_2020_3_survey.pdf?la=en

Probably opens on the -7% circuit breaker...

Futures opened -1000...

Trump's 3pm speech still hasn't started... I wonder if they realized they could wait until the market closes...

I wonder what Donny has in store for our Friday the 13th special? Here are his previous statements: --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TRUMPS OWN WORDS ON CORONAVIRUS January 22: Trump on Coronavirus “We have it totally under control”! January 24: Trump on Coronavirus “It will all work out well”! January 30: Trump on Coronavirus “We have it very well under control, and I think its going to have a very good ending. So that I can assure you”! February 2: Trump on Coronavirus “Well, we pretty much shut it down coming in from China, but we did shut it down!” No clue whatsoever of the severity of what’s coming. February 10: On Fox News Trump says without evidence that the coronavirus "dies with the hotter weather” "You know, a lot of people think that goes away in April with the heat February 24: Trump tweeted another baselessly claims: "The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA.” February 25: Trump falsely claims : you may ask about the coronavirus, which is very well under control in our country. We have very few people with it, and the people that have it are … getting better. They’re ALL getting better! Obviously he doesn’t care for those who died from it. (Like captured soldiers) February 26: Trump wrongly says the coronavirus "is a flu" February 26: Trump baselessly predicts the number of US cases is "going very substantially down" to "close to zero” February 26: Trump wrongly says the flu death rate is "much higher" than Dr. Sanjay Gupta said. Coronavirus has 10X death rate compared to flu. If 60K die from flu then 600K will die from Coronavirus! February 27: Trump baselessly said: "It's going to disappear. One day -- it's like a miracle -- it will disappear. February 28: Trump said at a rally: Coronavirus is a democratic” Hoax”. No, it was a warning he did not listen to as usual. It’s always all about him. March 2: Trump falsely claims "nobody knew" the number of US flu deaths, nope he’s the only one that doesn’t know as usual. March 2: Trump says a vaccine is coming "relatively soon” Trump did not mention that CDC had told him earlier that day that a vaccine was "a year to a year and a half" away. March 5: Trump wrongly claims the virus only hit the US "three weeks ago” Trump was informed of a confirmed case on January 21(6 weeks prior). He lied. March 5: World Health Organization (WHO) based on data collected around the world stated the global mortality rate for coronavirus at 3.4%. Trump says :”I think the 3.4 % is really a false number, this is just my “Hunch”! (Hunch over Facts in Trumps world) March 6: As the number of cases and deaths in Italy rises, Trump says “I hear the numbers getting much better in Italy” Another Lie. March 6: Trump falsely claims anybody can get tested if they want.That wasn't true. There were an insufficient number of tests available, as Pence said the day prior, and Americans could not get tested simply because they wanted to get tested. "You may not get a test unless a doctor or public health official prescribes a test," March 6: Trump baselessly muses that "maybe" the coronavirus improved US jobs numbers, Trump never thinks in terms of people and families losing lives… just numbers to boost his ego. March 11: Trump TV speech wrongly states Insurance companies will pay for patients Coronavirus treatment. Next day Insurance Coalition corrected Trump and said they will pay ONLY for Co-payments ,NOT Treatment. Big Difference! March 11: Trump TV speech wrongly states his Travel Ban to Europe will “apply to the tremendous amount of trade and large”. Next day white House Officials corrected Trump misinformation and said” Travel ban will NOT include trade!”. Trumps can’t even read a Teleprompter correctly. March 11: Trump’s Ban to Europe does NOT include Britain and Scotland, were there are more confirmed coronavirus cases than in some European countries. Trump owns Golf Resorts in Britain and Scotland, I’m sure that’s just a coincidence.

Dead cat bounce #3 is loading...

How many weeks has Wuhan been locked down for so far? Started Jan 23...so about 7 weeks and counting... Don't assume this is only for 2 weeks...

Damn. I have zero confidence in the Crypto casinos, so I only check those occasionally...

Things that are curious: gold fell with everything else today vs the typical run up...hypothesis: lots of margin calls to cover forcing lots of gold sells...viscous circle... I think the blood is just starting to run in the streets...most people are only now becoming aware that something big is going on...

A 3rd dead cat bounce might be what comes next, but I think we still have a ways to go down...

Similar here. I sold Feb 18, and what I bought is up 5%. I am up a net ~19% vs holding at the moment.

Opened on -7% circuit breaker... ?

The Dow is rolling into the open frozen at the futures' circuit breaker -5% level...

Futures pointing to a -1200 opening...

Agreed there, but I wonder if a big bank like Deutsche Bank might collapse and trigger a domino effect...

Many corporations are heavily debt loaded due to share buy backs from the last decade... A credit downgrade can sink many if this goes off the rails the next few months...

This has a very October 2008 ish vibe too it... Of course, I haven't watched a -10% day this time...yet...

I stockpiled hardcore starting about 3 weeks ago... I hit Costco up for 60 double rolls of TP and all the other sanitation products right out of the gate (in addition to my normal inventory). We are good in the house for ~3 months if not allowed to leave. I am good even without utilities for 2-3 weeks if it comes to that.

Goddamn that was a scary speech. He could barely talk and looked sedated. The narrative appears to be we are doing so much better than Europe b/c of his strong actions... Of course, we will be where Europe is in a few days (Germany/Spain/France) to 10 days (Italy)...exponential growth is a MOFO. Blocking travel to Europe might have helped a month ago, but now it is far too late...

I cashed out in Feb 18 (Dow 25k) thinking the downside risks outweighed any possible upside...I earned about 5% since then in ultra safe investments and missed a net ~13% vs the market in Jan 20 (Dow 29.5k). However, those downside risks are showing up with a vengeance now, putting me luckily well ahead (for now). I will consider partially buying back in the 20-22k range...perhaps later this week...we shall see. We are all playing with fire being in the market these days...

It might be hitting now...number of identified cases increased ~3x yesterday...