Dmeade- Posted September 5, 2012 Report Share Posted September 5, 2012 Tebow almost put up 200 and missed the first six games. And I don't think you have the authority to dimiss class for someone who took Matt Ryan in the second round when you could have easily got him in the 4th. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamalisms Posted September 5, 2012 Report Share Posted September 5, 2012 This answer would be more than enough if it was the only factor going into the equation. If this were simply an issue of Brady vs. Locker. That's the reason Locker is currently the backup on that team. But you're overlooking the other factors soley based on the fact that Brady is a stone-cold fantasy stud. No one is arguing against that. The question is whether or not his fantasy prowess is ENOUGH to off-set not upgrading the RB2 spot when you've got the chance to get one of the top 2 or 3 point-getting RB's in all of football in Rice to pair with another top 2 or 3 point-getting RB in Foster. You said in a previous thread that you don't gamble, but fantasy football itself is a gamble is it not? You're gambling in 2008 when you draft Tom Brady #1 overall that he won't have his knee torn to shreds in the first game of the season. You're gambling in 2011 when you held off drafting WR's early so you could load up on RB's just to watch your later-round Kenny Britt selection go down in flames due to a torn up knee. You're gambling in 2012 when you trade away Tom Brady that Jake Locker will put up top 10-12 fantasy QB stats and not absolutely flop and turn into Colt McCoy. I get your hesitation to make a trade like that if you're the team with Brady, but you can make the argument that Locker is a good gamble, especially when the primary result of the trade is that your 1 & 2 RB's are the 1 & 2 RB's in all of fantasy football. Locker scored 24 fantasy points last year against the Saints, a game in which he didn't enter until the 2nd quarter, and he scored 14 points against the Falcons in a game he didn't even enter until the 3rd quarter. We've all heard the talk that he's a better QB this year than he was last year and he's going to have more guys around him to work with this year, including Kenny Britt when he gets back. I argue that it is NOT outside the realm of realistic that he might actually average 15 fantasy points a game.... unless you're just being anti-homer out of an arbitrary fear that you might be a homer. Currently, I am adressing a specific point that argues Locker will score close to Brady. It's nonsense, and that's the only picture I'm talking about now.Jake Locker is more likely to score in the range of the 180 Hasselbeck scored (while setting Titans records), than to score 225 over 15 weeks. 15 points a week isn't impossible, it's just unrealistic based on the number of guys who do it, what their talent level is, what they've shown versus what he's shown, and the combination of all other factors. Also, gambling was a response to a money bet proposition. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
NashvilleNinja Posted September 5, 2012 Author Report Share Posted September 5, 2012 Jake Locker is more likely to score in the range of the 180 Hasselbeck scored (while setting Titans records), than to score 225 over 15 weeks. 15 points a week isn't impossible, it's just unrealistic based on the number of guys who do it, what their talent level is, what they've shown versus what he's shown, and the combination of all other factors. I agree... and Locker's 2011 showing is a very small sample size to go on. But judging on what we've seen last pre-season, last year, and this pre-season I'd be willing to gamble that his talent level is on par with a 225-245 point fantasy season. Also, gambling was a response to a money bet proposition. Aso... yeah, this is a free league so it's all just for fun. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamalisms Posted September 5, 2012 Report Share Posted September 5, 2012 Tebow almost put up 200 and missed the first six games. Sanchez as an example worked so well, why not his backup? Top 10 for everyone! And I don't think you have the authority to dimiss class for someone who took Matt Ryan in the second round when you could have easily got him in the 4th. This comment is all sorts of stupid, but I'll indulge. First of all, if you are talking about the NFL.com league, he scored the 8th most points (for a QB) in this scoring system last year. Fast forward to this year when Julio Jones is currently the second highest ranked WR on NFL.com and Roddy White is the sixth, I think I'm pretty comfortable assuming he's vastly underrated as the 9th ranked QB. Second of all, this was a 12 team league and fully half of those teams took a QB in the first round. I took Matt Ryan as the 7th QB. Setting aside Julio Jones and Roddy White for a moment, I took the 8th highest scoring QB from last year and drafted him as the 7th QB this year. Forgive me while I laugh at your faux incredility. Third of all, let's begin explaining to you how and why I might have moved Ryan up the list at least one spot from last year (I actually have him at 4th so this was true value). Firstly, there are those guys we chose to ignore a moment ago. Ryan has two targets who, depending on the rankings list, are top 5 talents. I'll just assume you aren't dense enough to miss the connection. Secondly, the run game is expected to be scaled back. Thirdly, Matt Ryan wasn't just 8th last year, he was 8th the year before that. He is consistent money. Fourthly, and connected to the third point, the only QB available who scored more than Ryan in 2011 was Eli Manning. I've already noted why Ryan is in a better position than he was last year, but let's look at Eli. He had 900 more yards than his previous career best. His 589 attempts was 50 more than he had in 2010, 80 more than 2009, 110 more than 2008, 60 attempts than 2007, and so on. It was a career high as well. Why is that? Does it have something to do with an injury riddled team that gave up scores to the tune of (25th in the NFL) 400 points? Does it have anything to do with the 6 regular season game winning drives he had to go out and pull off? (the answer is yes, and therefore Eli is likely to do worse in 2012... which is why he's rated 10th on NFL.com) Fourth of all, let's forget theory and look at that specific draft. Could I have gotten Matt Ryan in the fourth round? QBs drafted after my pick of Matt Ryan but before my 4th round pick, in the order taken: Peyton Manning, 3rd round, who switched to a new team and maybe can throw the ball. Philip Rivers, 3rd round, who I like generally as a fantasy QB but he didn't outscore Matt Ryan last year and he subsequently has lost his top target. Eli Manning, 4th round, previously discussed. Assuming that everyone who took a QB would still have taken one, I would have had to hope that Matt Ryan fell to be the 10th QB drafted (six in the first round, two in the third, one in the fourth before my pick) in order for him to have fallen to me the fourth round. That's one spot below his actual ranking and it assumes nobody else is high on Ryan after considering the points above. In fact, we'll never know if Ryan would have fallen that far but... let's use my favorite new term... it's realistic he would not have. More than realistic, it's doubtful. The real question is whether or not I should have waited until the third round... and that is a damn good question. I was pretty close to the bookend with only two guys each getting a couple picks before my third round pick. One took Aaron Rodgers with his first pick which means there's really only one team (two picks) to worry about. I rank Ryan as the 4th QB and all the other guys available are a solid tier down. I also rank Murray and Steven Jackson a solid tier above where the other available RBs are. There are two teams (four picks) to worry about taking those guys. Odds are even. Which do I risk losing? The answer... is clearly the RBs. 1. QBs are going early, so the odds another QB isn't taken are questionable. Elite WRs are still there, so maybe they get taken and non-elite RBs fall. 2. Murray and Jackson stand a far better shot of being injured. 3. Murray and Jackson stand a far better shot of being phased out of gameplans if a team gets down. 4. The biggest and most important factor - QBs just score too many points. In fact, by choosing Matt Ryan I took the 10th highest scorer in this league (at any position) with the 22nd pick... and I suspect he'll do even better. Risking a top 10 scorer, the 4th QB on my list, or risking mediocre RBs... I'm happy with my choice even if Murray going the pick before me still pisses me off. Please, though, regale me with more stories about Jake Locker's 30 TD season. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dmeade- Posted September 6, 2012 Report Share Posted September 6, 2012 Regardless of all the long winded bullshit you are spewing, all 3 of my leagues on NFL.com Ryan was available after the 3rd round. You could have got the 2nd best WR as you say and still got Matt Ryan, most likely. And you obviously don't understand how waves work during drafts. Time will tell this fantasy season.. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldschool Posted September 6, 2012 Report Share Posted September 6, 2012 Sanchez as an example worked so well, why not his backup? Top 10 for everyone! This comment is all sorts of stupid, but I'll indulge. First of all, if you are talking about the NFL.com league, he scored the 8th most points (for a QB) in this scoring system last year. Fast forward to this year when Julio Jones is currently the second highest ranked WR on NFL.com and Roddy White is the sixth, I think I'm pretty comfortable assuming he's vastly underrated as the 9th ranked QB. Second of all, this was a 12 team league and fully half of those teams took a QB in the first round. I took Matt Ryan as the 7th QB. Setting aside Julio Jones and Roddy White for a moment, I took the 8th highest scoring QB from last year and drafted him as the 7th QB this year. Forgive me while I laugh at your faux incredility. Third of all, let's begin explaining to you how and why I might have moved Ryan up the list at least one spot from last year (I actually have him at 4th so this was true value). Firstly, there are those guys we chose to ignore a moment ago. Ryan has two targets who, depending on the rankings list, are top 5 talents. I'll just assume you aren't dense enough to miss the connection. Secondly, the run game is expected to be scaled back. Thirdly, Matt Ryan wasn't just 8th last year, he was 8th the year before that. He is consistent money. Fourthly, and connected to the third point, the only QB available who scored more than Ryan in 2011 was Eli Manning. I've already noted why Ryan is in a better position than he was last year, but let's look at Eli. He had 900 more yards than his previous career best. His 589 attempts was 50 more than he had in 2010, 80 more than 2009, 110 more than 2008, 60 attempts than 2007, and so on. It was a career high as well. Why is that? Does it have something to do with an injury riddled team that gave up scores to the tune of (25th in the NFL) 400 points? Does it have anything to do with the 6 regular season game winning drives he had to go out and pull off? (the answer is yes, and therefore Eli is likely to do worse in 2012... which is why he's rated 10th on NFL.com) Fourth of all, let's forget theory and look at that specific draft. Could I have gotten Matt Ryan in the fourth round? QBs drafted after my pick of Matt Ryan but before my 4th round pick, in the order taken: Peyton Manning, 3rd round, who switched to a new team and maybe can throw the ball. Philip Rivers, 3rd round, who I like generally as a fantasy QB but he didn't outscore Matt Ryan last year and he subsequently has lost his top target. Eli Manning, 4th round, previously discussed. Assuming that everyone who took a QB would still have taken one, I would have had to hope that Matt Ryan fell to be the 10th QB drafted (six in the first round, two in the third, one in the fourth before my pick) in order for him to have fallen to me the fourth round. That's one spot below his actual ranking and it assumes nobody else is high on Ryan after considering the points above. In fact, we'll never know if Ryan would have fallen that far but... let's use my favorite new term... it's realistic he would not have. More than realistic, it's doubtful. The real question is whether or not I should have waited until the third round... and that is a damn good question. I was pretty close to the bookend with only two guys each getting a couple picks before my third round pick. One took Aaron Rodgers with his first pick which means there's really only one team (two picks) to worry about. I rank Ryan as the 4th QB and all the other guys available are a solid tier down. I also rank Murray and Steven Jackson a solid tier above where the other available RBs are. There are two teams (four picks) to worry about taking those guys. Odds are even. Which do I risk losing? The answer... is clearly the RBs. 1. QBs are going early, so the odds another QB isn't taken are questionable. Elite WRs are still there, so maybe they get taken and non-elite RBs fall. 2. Murray and Jackson stand a far better shot of being injured. 3. Murray and Jackson stand a far better shot of being phased out of gameplans if a team gets down. 4. The biggest and most important factor - QBs just score too many points. In fact, by choosing Matt Ryan I took the 10th highest scorer in this league (at any position) with the 22nd pick... and I suspect he'll do even better. Risking a top 10 scorer, the 4th QB on my list, or risking mediocre RBs... I'm happy with my choice even if Murray going the pick before me still pisses me off. Please, though, regale me with more stories about Jake Locker's 30 TD season. Boom. Checkmate. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamalisms Posted September 6, 2012 Report Share Posted September 6, 2012 Waves were irrelevant, as I was on/near a bookend. I either start a wave or miss it. Besides, the wave I ranked Matt Ryan in had already passed. My third pick was actually the 3rd best WR from 2011, Wes Welker. He was the sixth WR taken and I would have taken him over Greg Jennings who was the only guy taken in between picks... so I got the WR I would have taken even though I didn't consider WR there. I would have preferred Murray and Ryan but I'll survive. ... especially after watching Murray so far tonight. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dmeade- Posted September 6, 2012 Report Share Posted September 6, 2012 Waves absolutely matter and it is stupid to think otherwise. If over half the people took Qbs then they aren't going to be looking to take back to back high picks on a back up QB. I just looked on my 3 other leagues on NFL.com and Ryan went 7th round, 10th round, and 10th round. You could have had Jenning, Welker, and Ryan very easily. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamalisms Posted September 6, 2012 Report Share Posted September 6, 2012 You need better competition... and waves are a tool for tools. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dmeade- Posted September 6, 2012 Report Share Posted September 6, 2012 We will see how well your season plays out with that team...there's not much left to argue about. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldschool Posted September 6, 2012 Report Share Posted September 6, 2012 You need better competition... and waves are a tool for tools. Clearly this is the case. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamalisms Posted September 9, 2012 Report Share Posted September 9, 2012 Matt Ryan, Matt Ryan, why hast thou forsaken mmmmeee.... oh wait. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dmeade- Posted September 10, 2012 Report Share Posted September 10, 2012 Matt Ryan, Matt Ryan, why hast thou forsaken mmmmeee.... oh wait. Matt Ryan not being a good pick was not my point and you should know that. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamalisms Posted September 10, 2012 Report Share Posted September 10, 2012 At this point, I'm going to ignore anything that doesn't suit me and just pretend that your entire point was Matt Ryan in the 4th round. Since he basically topped the league, I got a steal in the second round. Everything else falls on deaf ears and I'll accuse you of changing the subject. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dmeade- Posted September 10, 2012 Report Share Posted September 10, 2012 At this point, I'm going to ignore anything that doesn't suit me and just pretend that your entire point was Matt Ryan in the 4th round. Since he basically topped the league, I got a steal in the second round. Everything else falls on deaf ears and I'll accuse you of changing the subject. My point was you could have got him and Julio Jones regardless if he scores 500 points this season. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.