Legaltitan Posted April 19, 2016 Report Share Posted April 19, 2016 Cruz could very well steal this thing but on what planet is he the favorite? Guy is still losing states to Trump and Kasich is gaining on him. And everyone in the Republican establishment hates Cruz. I don't know what is going to happen, but to say Cruz is a favorite is way way premature. Republican party didn't go through all this handwringing and knee-capping of Trump just to nominate Cruz. Cruz is a helpful, but expendable, foil right now for the party, nothing more. They will work harder to fuck him over than they have against the Donald. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Starkiller Posted April 19, 2016 Report Share Posted April 19, 2016 10 minutes ago, Legaltitan said: Cruz could very well steal this thing but on what planet is he the favorite? Guy is still losing states to Trump and Kasich is gaining on him. And everyone in the Republican establishment hates Cruz. I don't know what is going to happen, but to say Cruz is a favorite is way way premature. Republican party didn't go through all this handwringing and knee-capping of Trump just to nominate Cruz. Cruz is a helpful, but expendable, foil right now for the party, nothing more. They will work harder to fuck him over than they have against the Donald. As long as Trump can't win a majority of delegates, Cruz is the favorite to me. He is loading up on delegates and tons of the delegates who have to vote for Trump on the first ballot will abandon him on the 2nd. Could an entirely different candidate come out of the blue during the convention? Perhaps. They would need to change the nominating rules before anyone other than Trump or Cruz could be the nominee, which could happen over both of their objections. But at least for now Cruz is their only real alternative. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldschool Posted April 19, 2016 Report Share Posted April 19, 2016 2 hours ago, Legaltitan said: Cruz could very well steal this thing but on what planet is he the favorite? Guy is still losing states to Trump and Kasich is gaining on him. And everyone in the Republican establishment hates Cruz. I don't know what is going to happen, but to say Cruz is a favorite is way way premature. Republican party didn't go through all this handwringing and knee-capping of Trump just to nominate Cruz. Cruz is a helpful, but expendable, foil right now for the party, nothing more. They will work harder to fuck him over than they have against the Donald. You are wrong on this. To many conservatives Cruz is the lesser of two evils between he and Trump because he's actually a conservative. The party base will get behind Cruz as the sacrificial lamb in general election. The same can't be said for Trump. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
9 Nines Posted April 19, 2016 Author Report Share Posted April 19, 2016 2 hours ago, Legaltitan said: Cruz could very well steal this thing but on what planet is he the favorite? Guy is still losing states to Trump and Kasich is gaining on him. And everyone in the Republican establishment hates Cruz. I don't know what is going to happen, but to say Cruz is a favorite is way way premature. Republican party didn't go through all this handwringing and knee-capping of Trump just to nominate Cruz. Cruz is a helpful, but expendable, foil right now for the party, nothing more. They will work harder to fuck him over than they have against the Donald. Cruz campaign, via active grassroot working during state conventions, is locking in Trump delegates with his supporters. Once their pledges are released, they will vote for Cruz on further ballots, and Cruz will likely overtake the vote with ease. Reports are coming out that perhaps half or maybe a majority of Trump pledged delegates, across all states, are actually Cruz supporters. For example, in Texas all 155 of the delegates personally back Cruz. Trump has 48 pledged delegates from Texas. Per Texas rules, they are not released from Trump until after the 2nd ballot. So if no nominee winner after the second ballot, that is 48 Trump delegates that will switch to Cruz giving him all 155 Texas delegates. The same thing is playing out in almost all states. So while Cruz is roughly behind 200 pledged delegates, upon furtehr ballots he is likely ahead 400 or 500 - he is probably near or over 1237 already on actually delegates that support him - they just have to wait until further ballots free them from their pledges. So Trump needs near or over 1237 delegates to win. Cruz is probably near 100% of winning if Trump does not do that. On someone besides Cruz and Trump: A Cruz nomination would already cause some degree of friction, if Trump has many more votes and delegates to start the convention. If the GOP tries to get a nominee that has no votes (did not go through the primary process) or very few (Kasich or Rubio etc.), that is going to be a very hard sale in the general election with all the anti-establishment views. Those views would likely grow even larger if the GOP did that (a measurable percentage of republican voters would perhaps stay home.) Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legaltitan Posted April 19, 2016 Report Share Posted April 19, 2016 15 minutes ago, oldschool said: To many conservatives Cruz is the lesser of two evils between he and Trump because he's actually a conservative. I'll give you that - grass roots tea partiers like Cruz. But he isn't a lesser of two evils - get past the "anti-establishment" vote and there otherwise is not much overlap between Cruz and Trump. The party base will get behind Cruz this is the party I am doubting. I don't see it happening. I think they are using Cruz to keep Trump from getting a majority pre-convention. Cruz won't get a majority either. as the sacrificial lamb in general election. The same can't be said for Trump. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legaltitan Posted April 19, 2016 Report Share Posted April 19, 2016 BTW, I am not at all doubting Cruz could end up as the nominee. In fact I am dreading that possibility. He has a decent chance of that happening. But I just think it is way premature to deem a guy who is hated by the party bosses - the same party bosses who are against Trump and who set the convention rules and control the nomination process - as the "favorite." Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldschool Posted April 19, 2016 Report Share Posted April 19, 2016 3 minutes ago, Legaltitan said: BTW, I am not at all doubting Cruz could end up as the nominee. In fact I am dreading that possibility. He has a decent chance of that happening. But I just think it is way premature to deem a guy who is hated by the party bosses - the same party bosses who are against Trump and who set the convention rules and control the nomination process - as the "favorite." Have you been paying attention? The Party base absolutely prefers Cruz and they hate him. That should tell you how they feel about Trump. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
9 Nines Posted April 19, 2016 Author Report Share Posted April 19, 2016 1 hour ago, Legaltitan said: BTW, I am not at all doubting Cruz could end up as the nominee. In fact I am dreading that possibility. He has a decent chance of that happening. But I just think it is way premature to deem a guy who is hated by the party bosses - the same party bosses who are against Trump and who set the convention rules and control the nomination process - as the "favorite." The rule committee formulates the rules, and all the delegates approve the rules. From my understanding, the rule committee is made up of 2 delegates from each state. In most states, Cruz has a majority of delegates that personally support him, whether they are pledged to him or someone else. Therefore, the rule committee is likely going to be packed with people who actually support Cruz. With a committee made up of a majority of personal Cruz backers, I assume, they are likely going to lawyer-ball all kinds of rules that favor Cruz over other candidates. For example, there is already a rule, from the last convention, prohibiting any candidate who did not win at least 8 states from being the nominee. The rule committee can propose changing or deleting that rule. I assume that if most of the people on that committee support Cruz, they will likely modify/strengthen that rule in order to keep out anyone from competing with the two front runner so that Cruz has no added competition in a contested scenario. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legaltitan Posted April 19, 2016 Report Share Posted April 19, 2016 18 hours ago, oldschool said: Have you been paying attention? The Party base absolutely prefers Cruz and they hate him. That should tell you how they feel about Trump. The party base doesn't hate Cruz. The party establishment hates him. Some may mislike him personally but for the tea party base Cruz checks all the right boxes. He is for many rank and file conservatives their wet fucking dream. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legaltitan Posted April 20, 2016 Report Share Posted April 20, 2016 Well well, as the Stop Trump movement falters and has all but failed, just like clockwork we see articles like this: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/trumps-real-magic-number-is-less-than-1-237-222184 The establishment does not want Trump. That is clear. They cast their lot behind failed candidate after failed candidate to try to defeat Trump and it never worked. They warmed a little to Cruz recently, as every other reasonable option had failed. Even then they did not throw establishment weight behind Cruz like they did Jeb and Rubio. Clearly their heart wasn't in it. And I maintain that what was really going on is that Cruz was simply the strongest non-Trump candidate at the time, so backing him was a way to deny the necessary delegates to Trump Actually, we don't have to guess at that. They FUCKING TOLD US that. Everyone remember Romney's speech? He laid out the groundwork. "Vote Rubio in this state, vote Cruz in this one, vote Kasich in Ohio, so that Trump can't get the majority of the delegates." The establishment was never really for Cruz, just against Trump, and to the extent they were for Cruz it was very lukewarm. They hate the fucking guy. Peter King just came out this week and said he would take cyanide if Cruz was the nominee. Lindsey Graham used similar language. They are scared of Trump, but they absolutely detest Ted Cruz and they don't really try to hide it. I think you will slowly see over the coming weeks and months an extremely grudging recognition that the Stop Trump campaign has failed. The establishment through everything they knew to throw at it and it hasn't worked. Trump got derailed and lost momentum at times, but he is still the frontrunner, still way ahead in delegates, still won way more votes than anyone, and the only other viable candidate is someone they hate and makes most of America's skin crawl. So, it really looks like despite everyone's prediction, Trump may actually win this nomination. But if he doesn't, it will be because of a herculean, no holds barred convention blood bath. And I am saying there is no fucking way they are going to go through those kinds of efforts and piss off the Trump guys and tear the party apart all to see Cruz sitting at the top of the ticket. I maintain it will either be Trump, or an establishment pick. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Starkiller Posted April 20, 2016 Report Share Posted April 20, 2016 I think you are underestimating how much the establishment hates the idea of Trump winning the nomination. They don't like Cruz, but at least they see him as a Republican. There are going to be major party repercussions regardless of whether Trump wins the nomination or he loses it at the convention. I think they will pull the ripcord as soon as possible and fight like hell to keep Trump from being their standard bearer. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Denali Posted April 20, 2016 Report Share Posted April 20, 2016 In his NY concession speech last nite, Cruz is now claiming that he's an "outsider". LOL. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Starkiller Posted April 20, 2016 Report Share Posted April 20, 2016 2 minutes ago, Denali said: In his NY concession speech last nite, Cruz is now claiming that he's an "outsider". LOL. To the human race? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legaltitan Posted April 20, 2016 Report Share Posted April 20, 2016 38 minutes ago, Starkiller said: I think they will pull the ripcord as soon as possible and fight like hell to keep Trump from being their standard bearer. Man have you been following this race? They have already done that. Are you suggesting there is some more aggressive tactic or bombastic language then can use to reject Trump? They've tried everything they know. There are no other tricks up their sleave, other than an all-out convention bloodbath to deny Trump the nomination. And I don't think they have the stomach for that. If they do, I don't believe they will do it to hand it to Cruz. They don't want Cruz anymore than Trump. Look at that article, and it seems pretty clear establishment folks are slowly coming to terms with the possibility they are stuck with Trump. We shall see, but I just don't see them going to the mat for Cruz over Trump. And I think if you asked these guys in private they would rather have Trump than Cruz. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legaltitan Posted April 20, 2016 Report Share Posted April 20, 2016 10 minutes ago, Denali said: In his NY concession speech last nite, Cruz is now claiming that he's an "outsider". LOL. Well, he is Canadian. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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