10-Team, Standard Scoring Draft Strategy

[Bink]

I really think due to the lack of RB depth it is paramount to consider going RB/RB/WR/WR I say this exclusively because of depth versus drop off. RB becomes insanely inconsistent, and I think you really have to try to get two if you can. Especially based on what you've told us about how your league drafts. 

 

Let's say the draft shakes out like this: 

 

1. Peterson

2. Martin 

3. Spiller

4. Foster

5. Charles

6. Morris

7. Lynch 

8. Rice

9. Calvin Johnson  

10. Trent Richardson 

11 (10). McCoy 

12. (9). Chris Johnson

13. (8.) Forte

14. (7.) S-Jax 

 

15. Now, let's say you take a receiver here: AJ Green. Let me point out that Calvin Johnson could be here. Not likely, but it could happen. If he is, and you don't draft him...

 

 

16. (5). Ridley

17. (4). Dez  

18. (3). Gore

19. (2). MJD

20. (1). Brees

21. (1). Jimmy Graham

22. (2). Brandon Marshall

23. (3). Aaron Rogers

24. (4). Demariyus Thomas

25. (5). Reggie Bush 

 

WR still available: Cobb, Julio Jones, Roddy White, Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, Vincent Jackson, Wes Welker. 

 

RB still available: Lamar Miller, Darren Sproles, DeMarco Murray, Darren "Fantasy Suicide" McFadden.

 

Yikes. Yikes, Yikes, Yikes.

 

Let's keep going. You draft a receiver here, because RB value is so bad. There is a minor receiver "run."

 

26 (6). Larry Fitzgerald 

27 (7). Cobb

28 (8). Julio Jones

29 (9). Andre Johnson (ha--Johnson, Johnson and Johnson!)

30 (10). Roddy White

31 (10). Vincent Jackson

32 (9). Peyton Manning 

33 (8). Dwayne Bowe

34 (7). Lamar Miller 

33 (6). DeMarco Murrary 

 

Your best case scenario here is that Miller falls to you. Even then, he isn't consistent. 

 

So the question is, would you rather have Morris, Ridley, Fitzgerald, and Colston/Cruz/Welker 

 

or Morris, AJ Green, Fitzgerald, and Lamar Miller/DeMarco Murrary? 

 

it is more of a toss up than you might think. The risk, in a ten man league, is that the rest of the league goes RB crazy. If the opposite is true, and some are pushed down, you could get real value. Why not play the value then? It's possible some decent RB makes it to 15. If Jackson is there, why not take him? 

 

Personally, I'd jump on MJD but if you aren't high on him you should take him. Based on my draft projections it's equal risk is folks pretty much follow script. 

[Cyrus]

It's certainly close in terms of value - thus the dilemma. The issue for me is that chasing a RB in the 2nd round can net me a WR on par with Roddy White (per a mock). In such a case, I would have to hope that Chris Johnson's production exceeds an alternative RB (say Bush / Lacy) enough to cover the gap between White and Bryant/Green. It's possible that could be as much as 25-30 fantasy points over the course of the season.

 

Will Chris Johnson or Ridley score 25-30 FPs more than Bush? (who only scored 10 FPs less than Chris Johnson last year and 25 less than Ridley). What about the opportunity cost if I manage to get Bush in the 4th round, allowing me to grab another WR1 or WR2 with Top 10 upside? That may be another 15-20 FPs that Chris Johnson or Ridley would have to produce to exceed my other approach. 

 

I want to maintain as much flexibility as possible and I think that chasing a running back limits my flexibility greatly and leaves too much potential value on the table. I hate to draft "scared" and I don't think I will even though my RB2 position might get sketchy.

 

Also, Lamar Miller, DMC are basically no drafts for me. I won't even bother with them honestly. 

[Bink]

It's certainly close in terms of value - thus the dilemma. The issue for me is that chasing a RB in the 2nd round can net me a WR on par with Roddy White (per a mock). In such a case, I would have to hope that Chris Johnson's production exceeds an alternative RB (say Bush / Lacy) enough to cover the gap between White and Bryant/Green. It's possible that could be as much as 25-30 fantasy points over the course of the season.

 

Will Chris Johnson or Ridley score 25-30 FPs more than Bush? (who only scored 10 FPs less than Chris Johnson last year and 25 less than Ridley). What about the opportunity cost if I manage to get Bush in the 4th round, allowing me to grab another WR1 or WR2 with Top 10 upside? That may be another 15-20 FPs that Chris Johnson or Ridley would have to produce to exceed my other approach. 

 

I want to maintain as much flexibility as possible and I think that chasing a running back limits my flexibility greatly and leaves too much potential value on the table. I hate to draft "scared" and I don't think I will even though my RB2 position might get sketchy.

 

Also, Lamar Miller, DMC are basically no drafts for me. I won't even bother with them honestly. 

 

That puts a lot of pressure on getting Reggie in Round 3. 

[Bink]

Also, I would rather draft a gun with a single bullet so I can kill myself than Darren McFadden. 

[Cyrus]

That puts a lot of pressure on getting Reggie in Round 3.

In Yahoo 10 team mocks, Bush is there in the 3rd round almost 95% of the time. Lacy is there in 5th most of the time, along with DeMarco Murray.

[Bink]

In Yahoo 10 team mocks, Bush is there in the 3rd round almost 95% of the time. Lacy is there in 5th most of the time, along with DeMarco Murray.

 

It's amazing how rankings on the site affect value. 

[wiscotitansfan]

It's amazing how rankings on the site affect value. 

Absolutely, I hate doing online mocks to prep for a real life draft without the interactive pregiven values of each player

[Cyrus]

Very weird draft. Several RBs dropped beyond reason to fourth or later round (Gore, Steven Jackson and MJD). WRs went very early with about 8 WRs going between my 3rd and 4th pick. QBs went very early as well, with some people grabbing a backup QB in the 6th and 7th rounds which greatly complicated things for me. (Brady went in the 4th, then the same person drafted Russell Wilson in the 6th - in a 1 QB league.)

Here's what I ended up with

QB: Tony Romo (I don't love this but he's finished Top 7 the last two years - was the last starting QB selected)

RB: Alfred Morris

RB: Stevan Ridley (drafted in the 3rd round)

WR: AJ Green

WR: Jordy Nelson (was best WR available after a run of WRs)

WR: Mike Wallace

TE: Jason Witten

K: Dan Bailey

DEF: St Louis

Bench: Frank Gore (took him in the 5th when there wasn't value for other positions), Green-Ellis, Kenbrell Thompkins, Shonn Greene, Josh Gordon and EJ Manuel

I'm concerned that I made a mistake when I put Gore on my bench instead of grabbing another starting position. I didn't like the value for 3rd WRs at the time and I wasn't real enthused about any of the QBs either. I mistakenly anticipated equally valuable QBs being available for me later because I didn't think anyone would grab a backup QB so early (Wilson and RGIII are on the bench for other teams).

My only real option other than Gore in the 5th round was Rob Gronkowski and that may have been the best option, but being concerned with his injuries I figured I might wait another round or two and see where the other TEs started going and try and grab one of the solid tier guys. (Gronkowski went a spot or two before my 7th pick and Davis immediately before my pick).

I would like to have a more solid QB and am disappointed I couldn't grab Brady in the 5th round where he had been going 99% of the time in mocks drafts. I'm hoping that I will be able to flip Gore for an improved QB since some of the guys that went QB early have some injury prone RBs. Romo will do for now, but I want to improve that position by the playoffs.

Also, I felt like the 6th position really killed me. Tiers of players were consistently falling between my picks and I was frequently the first to grab a lower tier of player, or the very last to grab a better tier (if I was lucky). Some of the volatility at WR and QB didn't do many favors - but it's something I'll have to address during the season.

[Dmeade-]

I'm leaning towards taking a WR there in the 2nd round and hoping for the best. My contingency is to reach on someone like Eddie Lacy in the mid rounds if necessary (I have a lot of confidence in him). I also feel pretty confident with Reggie Bush if he's there in the 4th round. I just don't want to go chasing a position when there's not value.

I love Morris. I think he's the real deal. I don't think he finishes Top 3 (although he could), but his floor is very, very high. He's going to be a consistent player for me week to week.

Side note, but would you trade Morris for MJD straight up?