Jamalisms

Also, I must admit that I continue to dismiss Total QBR. Emphatically. I have a few reasons but none truly weighty enough to convince anyone else.

Stats are cool. Advanced / adjusted stats are even cooler, (when done well). They tell the story of what was and they can be gleaned from to tell the story of an individual player's role. But what happens when stats go wrong?Stats don't trump true film breakdown but trusting the film breakdown of non-professionals is risky and professionals are too-oft loathe to share their analysis with others. From my perspective, stats are better than the conjecture and guessing that many fans engage in because there is a certainty to them. Given a large enough sample size, excuse-type context of stats becomes less meaningful and cumulative trends come to the fore. With that said, even though I like stats, I acknowledge two things. The presentation of stats can mislead even the person presenting them because... Determining the most appropriate lens through which to view and interpret stats is an inexact matter. Even worse than misused stats are assumed stats that result from adjustments to results based on context. Adjustments to results involve even more judgement because an undue adjustment can skew things. You also have the matter of people assuming that an adjustment will present players in a more favorable light when such may not be the case. In fan circles, (see: groups of passionate people who don't take the time to manually make the adjustment and prove that it results in line with their preconceived notions), this can lead to fruitless or misguided discussions. We dug into this a bit around here this offseason when discussing dropped passes thrown by Jake Locker and how that affected his completion percentage. In team circles, (see: The Jacksonville Jaguars who made some adjustments and presented the results to the media but did not compare them to adjusted results for other players), this can result in an embarassing rebuttal from ESPN Stats & Info. As we advance into a new season full of glorious statistical results and numbers upon numbers, let this serve as a reminder to all that due dilligence is always warranted and even professionals get it wrong. Follow Titans Report on Twitter: @TitansReport Follow Jamal on Twitter: @Jamalisms Photo credit: Joe Shlabotnik on Flickr. Used under the Creative Commons License. Click here to view the article

Let's see if I can double-negative the off topic tangents and right this ship: Vince Young.

In my estimation... unless he completely wets the bed, Jake is likely to get another year no matter who the head coach is. Even if he completely wets the bed, he might still get another one. At that point they may bring in some competition but Jake is going to be the presumed starter. Here's one other rhetorical thought - a lot of people say Locker hasn't started for a full year yet. I would say he has... he was the undisputed starter all of last year... he was just too injured to play all of the games. Maybe a 'full season as starter' vs 'served at the starter' caveat... but it always makes me want to start arguing when I hear people say it. And a lot of people do.

Interestingly, I saw Bironas listed as fifth most accurate on NFL.com... but I could have sworn he was said to be third most accurate when he got the new deal. Also, Wyatt came out with a similar post today: http://www.tennessean.com/article/20130819/SPORTS01/308190068/Tennessee-Titans-five-troubling-preseason-developments

I agree, mostly. That was part of the point. ... here are "conclusions" based what we've seen. There's little evidence against them so far, so they seem firm. They're based on two preseason games, however, so it's easy to overstate them (which I intentionally did).

Only one day? No.

What you see in the preseason is not always what you get when real bullets start flying. It would be easy to read too much into the results of the first two Titans contests. With that said, here are four observations from the year so far. This offensive line is going to make running the ball a breeze Chris Johnson has nine carries for 90 yards. Shonn Greene has eleven carries for 61 yards. Neither back has a negative rush so far. Both backs have seen much more consistent holes than in recent years and that is despite facing a pretty good defensive front against the Bengals during the second week of preseason. Chris Johnson has already busted off a big gain and even absent that run he’s averaging 4.0 yards per carry. Shonn Greene has converted a third and short and a fourth and short. He has a 19 yard run already, which is longer than all but two runs he had all of last year. Verdict: Running the ball and controlling the clock should be easy. Jake Locker is ready to take the next step His overall statistics haven’t been superb, (19 of 31 for 174 yards), but he has passed the overall eye test and an abnormal number of drops against the Bengals held his stats down. Locker has taken what was there, has been accurate with ball placement and has looked overall comfortable (enough) in the pocket. He hasn’t gone down field yet and he hasn’t shown much running the ball. When (if?) those elements are added, he’ll be that much more dangerous. At the least Locker won’t destroy an otherwise good offense - he won’t be a detriment. We’ll see how much of an added bonus he is, but his overall consistency and production should be enough to keep the ball moving, especially with the WR depth and run game this offense will have. Verdict: Move him down your list of concerns. The defense is going to lose us games New run defenders haven’t looked good against the run. Missed tackles are still too prevalent. Coverage is still off and our cornerbacks haven’t stepped up. Tommie Campbell hasn’t blossomed and the new draft picks haven’t shown anything. Ayers will probably be playing hurt from day one now. Wimbley is being marginalized and won't contribute even with less snaps. McCarthy is already injured and will never stay healthy. Pressure up front hasn’t been consistent. We’ve given up points too easily with the first team defense in both games. Vanilla game plans don’t account for all of the issues exhibited and they’re too similar to the issues we’ve seen before. Creative blitzing and coaching adjustments won’t be able to hide this wart when the regular season arrives. Verdict: The sky is falling. The kicking game is officially a concern Rob Bironas may be the third most accurate kicker in NFL history but he had an off year in 2012, making only five of ten attempts in the 40-49 yard range. Of all kickers with at least five attempts in that range, he was the worst in the NFL. He’s been hurt during camp this year and he missed a 37 yard and a 38 yard attempt against the Bengals. If the injury is the cause of his misses, that injury has lingered close enough to the regular season to cause concern. If it isn’t the injury that affected him, it’s even more concerning. Maybe he’ll turn things on for the regular season and he’ll earn the new deal he was given but the odds that he won’t, based on recent struggles, should concern fans. Verdict: Get some veteran kickers' phone numbers handy and on speed dial, just in case. Follow Titans Report on Twitter: @Titansreport Follow Jamal on Twitter: @Jamalisms Photo courtesy Brian Hill Photography. Photo can be seen in original form on his website. Click here to view the article

I still don't see how Peyton injecting himself with stem cells is legal and not a banned substance and considered performance enhancing.

He also then praised the holes when he did well last year and repeated his belief that his success was due to the OL. It's either incriminate the OL or don't answer the question. He's never been the kind to not answer the question.

God forbid someone predict us to come in second in our division... EVERYBODY PANIC! You explained why you predicted second place. Again - second in the division. It may be a bit hopeful but it's reasonable. Ignore the trolls. It's not worth the explanation.

Anecdotal, but strongly I'd say... given history of respective programs, which ingrains fan interest. It's probably supported by merchandise sales and all sorts of other data... if that were readily available.

Good to see you here Bigg. nice wrote-up. I hope people don't overstate your Stafford comparison. You explained it pretty well and I would agree that Jake, if he stays healthy, will show more of his true colors this year. You think his true colors are that of a legit QB. I hope you're right. A projected cleaner pocket and healthy/emerging WRs, not to mention a hopefully better-able-to-contribute run game should do a lot to help him... one way or another.

Finally, someone who knows how to write an article. About time we had something like that around here. Welcome aboard.

Turner starting at C over incumbent Velasco. Verner at CB, as mentioned. Somewhat surprised Otto got the start over Singily, who start to end year and played in place of Stewart even this week.

Stewart is out, Otto to start at RT.

NFL teams keep things pretty close to the vest during the preseason but these next four games still have interesting storylines. What are some things to keep an eye on and what questions may get (partially) answered in preseason game one?Offense The Titans enter the 2013 season with a new offense and a renewed focus on running the football. With that said, the signal caller is still the focus of fan interest. The run game and the passing game each have things to watch for. Quarterback In today’s NFL, you want your QB to do well. When you have a highly drafted QB, you want him to do well. When you have a QB who hasn’t yet proven he’s a quality starter coming into year three, you want him to do well. Jake Locker, please do well. Ryan Fitzpatrick was signed to be the backup for Locker. He’ll likely play for awhile on Thursday night. Rusty Smith has been the Titans third quarterback for a number of years. Between the Vince Young / Kerry Collins combo, then the Matt Hasselbeck / Jake Locker era and now the Fitzpatrick era – Rusty hasn’t been given much of a shot at the backup QB role. How does he look in the new offense and is there any potential the Titans part ways with him? It would seem unlikely that the Titans don’t carry three QBs, but at some point a player either progresses past a status as “the other QB” or he ceases to hold value. Offensive Line Injuries and quality of play were an issue in 2012. Big investments were made in free agent starting left guard Andy Levitre and 10th overall draft pick (and assumed starting right guard) Chance Warmack. How does the line look in terms of improved quality and early cohesiveness? Does right tackle David Stewart look returned to form and healthy after breaking his right leg in a game against Houston last year? With rookie Brian Schwenke missing time, there appears to be a two-way battle at Center. How do Rob Turner and Fernando Velasco look? Does one or the other have a leg up in the competition? Wide Receiver Kenny Britt is more than a year removed from his knee injury and reports from camp indicate that he is playing well. The Titans are having him focusing solely on the X role while other receivers learn all positions. Will a return to physicality and potential dominance be foreshadowed? Kendall Wright led the Titans in receptions as a rookie last season. In watching highlights from last year he looked more explosive than I had remembered. Will losing weight and maturing into the NFL turn him into a playmaking receiver? Nate Washington was the subject of offseason trade rumors. The assumed maturation of young receivers makes for an interesting numbers game despite that recent reports indicate Nate is a team leader. With so many injuries at wide receiver across the league, trade rumors are bound to rise again. Will Nate be featured enough to quell the rumors? The Titans traded up in the second round to nab wide receiver Justin Hunter. Reports from training camp indicate that fiery WR coach Shawn Jefferson has been working hard to prepare Hunter mentally. What will his debut indicate about his rookie year, if anything? With Britt, Wright, Washington and the rookie Hunter firmly in the discussion at WR, Damian Williams becomes an interesting player to watch. He’s a proven versatile player and, given that the Titans are having receivers learn all positions, such versatility would seem to make him a strong fifth candidate to make the roster. After the top five, Michael Preston and Marc Mariani are presumed to be in a battle for the sixth spot (assuming six players are kept). Preston saw more and more playing time as the season wore on last year. He’s a tall WR who seems to work hard. Mariani is returning from a gruesome injury last year. If he makes an impact, I would assume it’s in the slot. Is that a big enough need and is he healthy enough to fill it? Kevin Walter will also be in the final roster-spot battle but he is still injured and will not play this week. Runningback Chris Johnson is the top back and Shonn Green is second in line. Darius Reynaud, Jalen Parmele and Jackie Battle are fighting for the third back role. How many carries will each get and how will their respective performances reflect on the battle? Returner Both Marc Mariani and Darius Reynaud are in contention for the returner role and each is a bit of an afterthought at their respective positions (WR and RB). Might the battle for returner decide who does or doesn’t make the roster? Damian Williams is also a possibility at returner, though less likely. He was on the roster when Mariani won the role and when Reynaud was given the role after Mariani suffered an injury a year ago. Tight End Versatile newcomer Delanie Walker is still injured. This will give other players more opportunity to step up. Taylor Thompson was a project last year and may step into a larger role in 2013. Craig Stevens played more snaps than departed Jared Cook. Both have potential to see a changed role in the new offense. Will Thompson be used creatively to take advantage of his athleticism? Will he be able to showcase the progress he has made? Will Craig Stevens see more work as a receiver in the new offense or will he still be primarily used as an in-line option who runs routes but sees few opportunities? Jack Doyle is an undrafted rookie who has made some noise. Will he show enough to force the Titans to keep four tight ends on the roster? If not, will he show enough to make it difficult to hide him on a practice squad? Fullback Quinn Johnson or Collin Mooney at fullback? How about maybe neither? Could versatile TEs reduce the need to carry an already underused true FB? Defense Enter Greg Williams. Enter a number of run-specific defenders. Enter attitude. Enter maturation of young players. The Titans defense will feature many of the same players as the 2012 defense that underwhelmed. At the same time, they expect that the new pieces and maturation of young players will pay dividends. Fans hope so. Don’t expect too much to be revealed in the preseason, but here are some players and positions to watch. Linebacker Zach Brown impressed as a rookie. As the season wore on he played more and better. By the end of the year he was playing more than 90% of snaps in multiple games. His speed makes him a valuable asset. Brown’s potential maturation between year one and year two will be a big factor for the defense in 2013. Akeem Ayers had a solid rookie year and followed that with a solid sophomore year as well. The Titans are talking about using him more to rush the passer this year. They did that last year as well. With Brown coming into his own and a (hopefully) more settled position at middle linebacker, will Ayers be truly freed up to get used creatively? As a young player in his own right, Ayers’ potential maturation is a big factor for the Titans. Colin McCarthy is nursing a hamstring injury. Moise Fokou was signed in the offseason and has spent quite a bit of time playing with the first team defense. Will he prove a valuable player in the middle? Scott Solomon was drafted as a defensive end last year but will look to make the transition to linebacker. Can he make an early impact to prove the transition merits a roster spot? Cornerback Jason McCourty is the top cornerback but there is a battle for the second spot. Incumbent Alterraun Verner and third year player Tommie Campbell seem to be getting the most reps with the first team defense. Verner will start game one and Campbell is slated to start game two. Which guy will play himself into (or out of) the starting role? Coty Sensabaugh locked down the nickel CB role last year. Will he hold onto it or could Verner move inside if Campbell wins the outside role? How does Sensabaugh look in his sophomore campaign? Safety Michael Griffin will be freed up to play free safety. How much will this role aid him in a return to form? Bernard Pollard and George Wilson were signed in the offseason to lock down the role opposite Griffin. Pollard has a mouth and has been working to instill a “killer” attitude in the Titans defense. Pollard is generally perceived as better against the run while Wilson is better in coverage. How will these two players be used/rotated? Will Pollard live up to the hype he has self-generated? Will the Titans feature three safeties with any regularity? Markelle Martin is slated to make his long-awaited debut after spending his entire rookie season on the physically unable to perform list (PUP). How much rust will manifest in his game and what kind of player did the Titans draft in the sixth round last year? Verner has seen some time playing safety in camp. Will he get some playing time in that role tonight? There’s a numbers game going on at safety. As such, it’s always interesting to see who steps up. Al Afalava, rookie Daimon Stafford and Robert Johnson all have roles to win, though injuries will be a factor. Johnson is currently on the PUP list. Defensive Line Derrick Morgan had a solid year in 2012, playing a large majority of snaps at left defensive end. Training camp has shown him being used on both the right and left side. His continued progress as a player is one of the most important factors for a defense in need of elite performers. Kamerion Wimbley played a large majority of snaps at right defensive end. He’s likely to play less this year. How much less is debatable, as is a potential increase in production/quality per snap associated with usage more suited to his skill-set. He has a history playing linebacker in the NFL which gives the Titans some flexibility to use him creatively. Ropati Pitoitua is a big defensive end, (potentially a tackle, at times), and may play a big role in trying to improve the defense on run downs. Jurrell Casey is a clear starter at tackle and is young enough to yet progress. Considering the number of injuries he played through last year, an improvement in 2013 isn’t unlikely. After Casey are free agent Sammie Lee Hill and Mike Martin. Hill was signed to stop the run. Martin had a solid rookie year and could make an impact in year two. After the above mentioned players, the defensive line as a whole, possibly more-so than any other group on the Titans defense, is a numbers game. Karl Klug is looking to transition from a penetrating defensive tackle to a defensive end. He’ll have a lot to prove to earn a roster spot, given the presence of Morgan, Wimbley and Pitoitua, as well as rookie DE Lavaar Edwards. Tackles Antonio Johnson, DaJohn Harris, Zach Clayton and Stefan Charles won’t all be kept. Young players are always trying to prove themselves but because of the numbers game, all defensive linemen will be looking to make an impact to earn a roster spot. Charles is an interesting case because he might otherwise be a practice squad candidate if he didn’t have a CFL career waiting for him. He was the 10th overall pick in the CFL draft this year. The Titans might lose him to Canada if he isn’t on the roster. How much and how well newcomers Pitoitua and Hill play will be worthy of note. If both are leaned on with regularity instead of being primarily run-stopping specialists, this could impact how many linemen are deemed necessary on the final 53-man roster. Follow Titans Report on Twitter: @Titansreport Follow Jamal on Twitter: @Jamalisms Click here to view the article

I doubt Griffin is at much risk of being cut.

http://espn.go.com/blog/afcsouth/post/_/id/51673/spelling-out-the-titans-identity My biased interpretation, considering I've said it before and absolutely believe it: Football can be won and lost in the trenches. If you are deficient there, you need a miracle. Fix the trenches, then see what else needs work.

Looking at 2013: We know CJ. Roos and Stewart are the second two biggest cap hits we've got at $7.5 and $7 each. Both could be near the end or could be extended to bring their numers down. Then come McCourty and Griff. Both are likely staying right where they are. Next come Wimbley and Washington. I'm not convinced either are here in 2014 but I'd say Wimbley has a decent shot. Those guys alone are $50+ million this year and Levitre hits hard next year. That's where your big money is. ... with that said, I wish I was familiar enough with most teams to know how high a % most teams have in, say, their top 5 or 6 guys. Is there a mix of positions between teams or a theme? Are the Titans top-heavy or do they maybe have too much money in middling contracts of the $2-$4 mil range... that would be interesting stuff to get a feel on.

Agreed, but not in conflict with what I was saying. It was not a broad statement about the cap in general, it was specific to prospective CJ savings and what that alone will buy. The Titans have spent a bit in recent years. They may finally be getting close to having to choose to cut people other than obvious overpaid and probably useless vet choices. ... and I do think that if (a somewhat notable if) Britt has a breakout year then he makes for a difficult choice.

That case wasn't made. It was simply a mathematical point that they aren't resigning a bunch of core, up and coming guys with CJ's cap savings next year... as compared to the highest paid RB who signed a deal at about the same time and often gets lumped in when discussing huge RB deals. This is not a complex matter and shouldn't really be leaving you so confused. Their contracts are structured differently and it's quite relevant (when discussing cap savings in future years) to note that CJ's doesn't escalate in cap hit (actually it goes down) from here out, whereas the other expensive back's contract does escalate. Because of this drop in cost, people often overstate how much will be saved by projecting hyperbole about how many people can be signed. If you think they will be able to resign those guys with $6 million, I'd love to hear why and you may even be right because I haven't bothered with the exact numbers. If that's not what you're addressing, though, you're imagining an argument.

It probably wasn't mentioned because the point was purely a financial issue that has zero to do with play. I'm just guessing, though.

It was, though I qualified it as going off memory and it still served to elucidate the point I was making... if one can bother with a detail like whats actually being said instead of "gotcha" posting. I'm ok with that sort of inaccuracy.