1st Pick QB/TE vs RB/WR

[SleepingTitan]

None of those people will score 450-500 fantasy points (wr/rb). You'd be lucky to have them (pick any 2 wr/rb combo) score that with 2 yrs combined. The difference between Calvin #wr2013 (219pts) & say Desean #10wr2013 (187pts) is about 30 points. The top WR (Gordon) got 10 more than Calvin yet only 40 more than Desean. That's an avg of 2.5 more pts/gm.

 

On the flip side we have Brees 487pts 2013 #2 overall compared to #10 Russell Wilson 355pts (-132 diff or 8.25 pts/gm) Even if you got greedy with these calcs and said that I could've waited for the 2nd or 3rd for a QB and still got a top QB...look at #6 QB last year Cam Newton (379pts) The difference between Brees & Newton even though they're only 4 slots away by position is over 100pts AND choosing to go for a WR to gain 2.5pts/gm causes you to lose 6.75 which will be net loss of 4.25pts for that choice. Hell, even the difference between Peyton & Brees was 80ptsish! 

 

You can do the same thing for RB, TE positions. You'll find there why I jumped on Julius Thomas. (The diff between a top 3 TE & say #10 is over 100pts.)

 

This explanation of pts lost per game can go EVEN FURTHER when you look at the pts/gm in terms of 14 gms vs 16. 

 

The scarcity and opportunity for maximizing at top of tier goes QB-->TE-->RB-->WR and thus should be your order of importance, always trying to draft BPA in that order. You should always choose BPA though. For ex, if you DON'T get that top 4 qb, you need to go top 3 TE, or top 10 RB/WR whichever is better.

 

Here's a brief example. My 4 best qb/wr/rb/te combo vs another drafted combo. 

 

Me Brees (487) Jthomas (150) Levon (171) CJ (198) =  1006.  My OPPONENT: Matt Ryan (345) Greg Olsen (117) Jamaal Charles (308) Calvin (219)

 

You see in the above example that I will gain over 1000pts and my opponent will gain UNDER 1000 pts. We are pretty close in pts though and anything could happened...but WHAT WILL NOT HAPPEN is One team drafting BOTH Calvin AND Charles. They'll both go first round...it'll never happen! Even in the BEST CASE scenario of drafting WR/RB 1st/2nd round, you won't win. You're always better off shooting for the qb/te (most scarce at top tier) first & second rounds...

[SleepingTitan]

With your first 2 picks, you will NEVER IN YOUR LIFE draft a top rb/wr combo, but you can still draft a top qb/te combo with a top 10 rb. 

[wiscotitansfan]

My argument to that is if you are in position to take a top TE on the wrap around it would be in the middle to late in the first, that means you won't take a RB until the 3rd round at the earliest. Since that is the case I just looked at my previous years draft in my longest running league (4 pts Passing TDs) and you would have taken the 22nd RB of the draft. It's not all about the point differential but the scarcity of players at a position where you play 2-3 of them a week.

 

Do you really want to go into the season with the 22nd, 30th and 35th or so RB taken in the draft? Obviously the draft position doesn't dictate pts by seasons end but if you take RB in rds 1 and 2 you can easily make up the pt differential of taking a QB that scores 6-10 pts less a week over both RB spots.

 

 

 

...I think it is much easier to take a flyer on a QB in the 10th round and have him score in the top 6 than to take a RB in the 5th round even and have him score 6th highest for that position.

[Guest]

My argument to that is if you are in position to take a top TE on the wrap around it would be in the middle to late in the first, that means you won't take a RB until the 3rd round at the earliest. Since that is the case I just looked at my previous years draft in my longest running league (4 pts Passing TDs) and you would have taken the 22nd RB of the draft. It's not all about the point differential but the scarcity of players at a position where you play 2-3 of them a week.

 

Do you really want to go into the season with the 22nd, 30th and 35th or so RB taken in the draft? Obviously the draft position doesn't dictate pts by seasons end but if you take RB in rds 1 and 2 you can easily make up the pt differential of taking a QB that scores 6-10 pts less a week over both RB spots.

 

 

 

...I think it is much easier to take a flyer on a QB in the 10th round and have him score in the top 6 than to take a RB in the 5th round even and have him score 6th highest for that position.

 

I agree with this being a factor and would like to add to it. 

 

This is the same logic I see here. It isn't just what you get, it's what others will do around you, and the trends in your league. I've seen Brees slip to the spot you are picking at in the second round in a few mock drafts, Aaron Rogers is there in many of those spots. I don't disagree that you take a QB early and try to snag an elite TE. Hell, in my league I'm hoping to draft Graham at 8 and Brees on the back end (10 team league). BUT the top few RBs are a precious commodity promising a consistency you will have to get lucky to replicate with the rest of the RB population. If nothing else, QB is a bit more certain to predict. Only a handful of RBs are consistent. 

 

The guy who won in my money league had Kaepernick and Dalton at QB, but was carried by McCoy into the playoffs. The person who beat in the playoffs had Charles, Dez Bryant, and Reggie Bush. QBs? Luck and Romo. I won the league regular season with Calvin, Gordon, and Foles and Newton. The guy who got me in the playoffs had Tannehill and RGIII at QB but ran Forte and Bernard down my throat. 

 

 

I know individual experience is not necessarily evidence, but there are myriad reasons that experts across the board don't advocate the strategy you are. 

 

First of all, TE and QB have one potential slot they can fill on game day. This matters. RB and WR can be moved around, allowing you more flexibility with your matchups. You take Brees and you are pretty much starting Brees, or spending a roster spot on a player who will be guaranteed inactive. Let's say you take Dalton to be Brees's backup. 

 

What happens when Dalton faces a bleeding Raiders secondary while Brees meets with the Panthers? You have to make a judgment call, one where the smart play could end up with your stud player taking a seat. Meanwhile, let's say you rolled with Jamal Charles (against the Broncos that same week) and Gio Bernard. You don't have to decide, you start them both. In the second scenario you are maximizing your potential points available. It's a lot easier to make decisions and be flexible with your QB play of your investment isn't extreme. 

 

Also, your slotting doesn't necessarily add up because QB runs tend to happen much later. Andy Dalton dropped 300+ fantasy points. Where was he taken? Round 12. 

 

I think in this case you have to push a bit harder against looking at pure stats and think about all of the variables at play. This doesn't make the sleepingtitanplay a bad one, it is a strategy and one with obvious merits. I just don't think it is without flaws, and there is a reason conventional wisdom is what it is. 

[SleepingTitan]

My argument to that is if you are in position to take a top TE on the wrap around it would be in the middle to late in the first, that means you won't take a RB until the 3rd round at the earliest. Since that is the case I just looked at my previous years draft in my longest running league (4 pts Passing TDs) and you would have taken the 22nd RB of the draft. It's not all about the point differential but the scarcity of players at a position where you play 2-3 of them a week.

 

Do you really want to go into the season with the 22nd, 30th and 35th or so RB taken in the draft? Obviously the draft position doesn't dictate pts by seasons end but if you take RB in rds 1 and 2 you can easily make up the pt differential of taking a QB that scores 6-10 pts less a week over both RB spots.

 

 

 

...I think it is much easier to take a flyer on a QB in the 10th round and have him score in the top 6 than to take a RB in the 5th round even and have him score 6th highest for that position.

10 pts less per wk translates to a LOT of points over the season. RBs get hurt or enter committees. You won't find that with a top QB unless it's Rogers

[SleepingTitan]

I've used different strategies over the years. The winning years (1st, 2nd or most total pts) for me and a vast majority of others came with very strong QB play. Many times a guy will draft very well and fail to adjust over the season. For WR/RB I always prefer potential over proven. Proven is too expensive for WR/RB, especially when you consider that last year almost 50% of top 10 rb's BUSTED. Put that in your pipe and smoke it. Probowl qb's that are proven NEVER bust unless they get hurt. Same with TE.

[NashvilleNinja]

I went with your formula in a 12-team ESPN standard league. This is how it shook out, by round. I picked 7th to start off so I was picking pretty much right in the middle of each round the whole draft:

 

1) QB - Aaron Rodgers

2) TE - Julius Thomas

3) WR - Randall Cobb

4) RB - Ryan Mathews

5) RB - Bishop Sankey

6) WR - Cordarrelle Patterson

7) WR - Kendall Wright

8) RB - Knowshon Moreno

9) WR - Hakeem Nicks

10) WR - Brandin Cooks

11) D/ST - Bengals

12) RB - Terrance West

13) QB - Eli Manning

14) TE - Eric Ebron

15) K - Nick Novak

16) WR - Jordan Matthews

 

Draft recap can be seen here: http://games.espn.go.com/ffl/tools/draftrecap?leagueId=949877

 

So here's my skill position depth chart (so far)

 

QB - Aaron Rodgers, Eli Manning

RB - Ryan Mathews, Bishop Sankey, Knowshon Moreno, Terrance West

WR - Randall Cobb, Cordarrelle Patterson, Kendall Wright, Hakeem Nicks, Brandin Cooks, Jordan Matthews

TE - Julius Thomas, Eric Ebron

D/ST - Bengals

K - Nick Novak

 

---

 

I'm happy I got Rodgers, Thomas, and Cobb. Patterson is a pretty big gamble given some of the other WR's on the board at the time, and Wright could boom or bust. If this were a PPR league he'd be pretty solid, but it's a standard league. Hopefully Whiz finds ways to get him opportunities in the RZ.... shit, hopefully the offense gets to the RZ with some frequency. I'm also glad I was able to get Cooks given all the hype he's been getting lately, but he could just be a flash in the pan.

 

I'm just not thrilled at all with my RBs. Bleh. I hope Bishop Sankey turns out to be a key piece in the Titans offense and Whiz gets him plenty of opportunities. We'll see. Ryan Mathews was a groaner pick. I was back and forth between him and CJ Spiller, but Matthews had the better season between the two last year. But... I'm just not a fan of the guy. He's potential fool's gold. He looks like he could be a real workhorse, and he was last year, but before that he was Darren McFadden-lite... always getting hurt.

 

Well, there you go. There's your formula at work.

[Guest]

NN's example is an interesting one, and points to why questions of value factor into it so much for me here. Aaron Rogers would have been a available in round 2. If not, Brees would have been. 

 

If nothing else, this indicates why you never, EVER hold fast to one strategy blindly. 

 

Really, the logic behind sleepingtitan's draft strategy only holds if the other people in the league are playing by it (they won't be). To maximize the potential of what he is indicating, you should probably go TE1, QB 2 unless you really have a preference over Brees and Rogers and are picking in the top three of your draft (or just absolutely want Peyton. 

 

Last year Jimmy Graham was by far the top scoring TE, with 217.50 total points. If you would have drafted him, you still could have landed Brees or Rogers. 

[NashvilleNinja]

Playing devil's advocate, Rodgers may have been taken instead of the other players had I not taken him there. Since I was going by SleepingTitan's formula I had to take the best available, and imo Rodgers will be the #1 QB in 2014. In fact I would've gone with Rodgers even if Peyton had been available for that fact.

I don't personally like being tied to any strategy because to me you put yourself into a box and put a cap on the players you can get. I'd rather have gone with Lacy in the 1st and BPA in the 2nd. Also, I'm just not a fan of going TE anywhere in the first 2 rounds.

This strategy might be good in 8 or 10 team leagues, but 12 and above I think you're cutting your legs out from under you. By the time you get around to drafting a RB you're pretty lucky if you get a 2-tier RB unless you draft a RB in the 3rd round. But then you miss out on the best WR's and the RB you get still isn't that great.

[SleepingTitan]

I went with your formula in a 12-team ESPN standard league. This is how it shook out, by round. I picked 7th to start off so I was picking pretty much right in the middle of each round the whole draft:

 

1) QB - Aaron Rodgers

2) TE - Julius Thomas

3) WR - Randall Cobb

4) RB - Ryan Mathews

5) RB - Bishop Sankey

6) WR - Cordarrelle Patterson

7) WR - Kendall Wright

8) RB - Knowshon Moreno

9) WR - Hakeem Nicks

10) WR - Brandin Cooks

11) D/ST - Bengals

12) RB - Terrance West

13) QB - Eli Manning

14) TE - Eric Ebron

15) K - Nick Novak

16) WR - Jordan Matthews

 

Draft recap can be seen here: http://games.espn.go.com/ffl/tools/draftrecap?leagueId=949877

 

So here's my skill position depth chart (so far)

 

QB - Aaron Rodgers, Eli Manning

RB - Ryan Mathews, Bishop Sankey, Knowshon Moreno, Terrance West

WR - Randall Cobb, Cordarrelle Patterson, Kendall Wright, Hakeem Nicks, Brandin Cooks, Jordan Matthews

TE - Julius Thomas, Eric Ebron

D/ST - Bengals

K - Nick Novak

 

---

 

I'm happy I got Rodgers, Thomas, and Cobb. Patterson is a pretty big gamble given some of the other WR's on the board at the time, and Wright could boom or bust. If this were a PPR league he'd be pretty solid, but it's a standard league. Hopefully Whiz finds ways to get him opportunities in the RZ.... shit, hopefully the offense gets to the RZ with some frequency. I'm also glad I was able to get Cooks given all the hype he's been getting lately, but he could just be a flash in the pan.

 

I'm just not thrilled at all with my RBs. Bleh. I hope Bishop Sankey turns out to be a key piece in the Titans offense and Whiz gets him plenty of opportunities. We'll see. Ryan Mathews was a groaner pick. I was back and forth between him and CJ Spiller, but Matthews had the better season between the two last year. But... I'm just not a fan of the guy. He's potential fool's gold. He looks like he could be a real workhorse, and he was last year, but before that he was Darren McFadden-lite... always getting hurt.

 

Well, there you go. There's your formula at work.

That's a helluva draft. You got your rocks, solid studs, and enough reasonable dice rolls to have a homerun. I really like B Cooks...not for who he is...but WHERE he is.

[Guest]

Playing devil's advocate, Rodgers may have been taken instead of the other players had I not taken him there. Since I was going by SleepingTitan's formula I had to take the best available, and imo Rodgers will be the #1 QB in 2014. In fact I would've gone with Rodgers even if Peyton had been available for that fact.

I don't personally like being tied to any strategy because to me you put yourself into a box and put a cap on the players you can get. I'd rather have gone with Lacy in the 1st and BPA in the 2nd. Also, I'm just not a fan of going TE anywhere in the first 2 rounds.

This strategy might be good in 8 or 10 team leagues, but 12 and above I think you're cutting your legs out from under you.

 

This is why it is important to know your draft, know the trends, and generally have as much knowledge as you can. In the draft, any decision risks possible outcomes. Yes, Rogers COULD have been gone. But how likely would it be? Again, I'm not critiquing your draft here because you were following the strat, I'm just commenting in general how important it is to really be aware of what is playing out in your draft with your scoring system. 

 

Ironically, in one of my leagues the strategy that sleeping titan advocates is probably perfect for a few reasons. 

 

1) Completion are worth .5 and incompletions are worth -.5. This makes accurate, top end QBs really valuable. 

 

2) Receptions are worth .5. 

 

3) TEs slot in the flex. 

 

Because of this, picking at 8th, I'm targeting Jimmy Graham and Drew Brees. I feel this will help me maximize my scoring. However, if say a Matt Forte fell to 8th? I take Forte, and then decide between Brees or Graham if they fall to the second round. 

[SleepingTitan]

Really, the logic behind sleepingtitan's draft strategy only holds if the other people in the league are playing by it (they won't be). To maximize the potential of what he is indicating, you should probably go TE1, QB 2 unless you really have a preference over Brees and Rogers and are picking in the top three of your draft (or just absolutely want Peyton. 

 

Last year Jimmy Graham was by far the top scoring TE, with 217.50 total points. If you would have drafted him, you still could have landed Brees or Rogers. 

Yeah, it's really more of a blueprint for "taking what's left behind." But you gotta keep your gun always focused on the BPA AND the scarcity of the position. TE1 is a great play if it's one of the top 3 (I would only do that for JT or JG) then follow round 2 or 3 with top QB provided that you KNOW your QB won't be taken. There are many who will NOT draft a QB/TE in the first or second round regardless, and I love that. Let them pray that injuries don't occur. Let them pray they're a high waiver priority when they've invested top 2-3 picks on wide outs and running backs who might turf toe. My top 3 picks gotta be solid investments. Those are the blue chips. If I can pick guys that will never sit the bench who have an infallible track record (JT doesn't but his QB does) then I'm taking them. 

 

The other thing worth noting, is that when you draft positions "out of turn" or in an unexpected order, it shifts the focus and mindset of the other drafters. Suddenly, when JG & JT are off the board, they're looking at Gronk for a gamble or changing their strategy because they don't want to end up with Alex Smith. That in turn, frees up that 1 or 2 guys that may be in the bottom of the top 10 for WR/RB on your board even though by their talent & team they still have the potential to finish the season in top 5.

[NashvilleNinja]

The scoring rules makes almost all the difference. In leagues that I've run I always count passing touchdowns as worth 6 points and you get a point for every 20 yards passing, so elite QB's are a premium get. This strategy would be great there. But in standard scoring leagues, especially leagues with 12 or more teams, I don't think I could use this strategy much. But I do like the idea of making sure you make solid picks. That's the most important thing in the first 3 rounds. If you screw up those picks your season is almost a lock to be toast.

[Guest]

Yeah, it's really more of a blueprint for "taking what's left behind." But you gotta keep your gun always focused on the BPA AND the scarcity of the position. TE1 is a great play if it's one of the top 3 (I would only do that for JT or JG) then follow round 2 or 3 with top QB provided that you KNOW your QB won't be taken. There are many who will NOT draft a QB/TE in the first or second round regardless, and I love that. Let them pray that injuries don't occur. Let them pray they're a high waiver priority when they've invested top 2-3 picks on wide outs and running backs who might turf toe. My top 3 picks gotta be solid investments. Those are the blue chips. If I can pick guys that will never sit the bench who have an infallible track record (JT doesn't but his QB does) then I'm taking them. 

 

The other thing worth noting, is that when you draft positions "out of turn" or in an unexpected order, it shifts the focus and mindset of the other drafters. Suddenly, when JG & JT are off the board, they're looking at Gronk for a gamble or changing their strategy because they don't want to end up with Alex Smith. That in turn, frees up that 1 or 2 guys that may be in the bottom of the top 10 for WR/RB on your board even though by their talent & team they still have the potential to finish the season in top 5.

 

I just can't justify Julius Thomas as a first round pick. One season of sample size and 150ish total points in standard. No thanks. I'd rather have Vernon Davis. 

[SleepingTitan]

I've ran the numbers with 1 pt per 25yds & 4pt TD (which is a bullshit way to score IMO), and the strategy still works. I won 1st in a 12 team league 2 years ago with this strategy. Not last year but the year before. It was bs standard no bonus 4pt type for qbs. I took Aaron Rodgers 3rd pick 1st round...He scored 421pts for me that year.