2013 Mock Draft v3.0

[Cyrus]

1. Kansas City Chiefs - Texas A&M Luke Joeckel:

With the Chiefs shopping Albert, it's very likely they make room for Joeckel. He's a very safe pick and would certainly fill a big need if the Chiefs shipped Albert away.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars - Oregon LB Dion Jordan: 

The Jaguars have a lot of options here with cornerback, defensive tackle and rush end all possible considerations. With Knighton moving on in Free Agency it makes sense for the Jaguars to add another defensive tackle early but there's better depth at that position for the Jaguars in the second round than rush backer. Jordan has a number of athletic traits that should translate well to rushing the passer in Bradley's system.

3. TRADE. Buffalo Bills (From Oakland Raiders) - West Virginia QB Geno Smith:

The Bills have to come away with a quarterback in this draft even if they need to trade up here. They can't afford to wait around and see if some other organizations would be willing to take Smith, so why risk it? Get your guy. If the K-Gun does return to Buffalo then Smith would be an ideal fit due to his comfort in the shotgun in a high-octane offense. The Raiders need additional picks so it makes sense for them to trade down here.

4. Philadelphia Eagles - Florida DT Shariff Floyd:

After adding Bradley Fletcher and paying Cary Williams in free agency it seems like the Eagles are positioning themselves to add a cornerback at a later point in the draft (possibly the second or third round). Milliner is an option here, but Floyd fills an immediate need at 34DE and is likely the best player available to the Eagles (Cedric Thornton, Ronnie Cameron as the potential starters).

5. Detroit Lions - Central Michigan OT Eric Fisher:

Even though the Lions have had a need at cornerback for a long while, they have a considerable need at left tackle with Backus gone. Eric Fisher is a better talent than Milliner and fits the Lions from both a need and value perspective. The Lions re-signed Chris Houston to a long-term deal and will probably trust their previous evaluation in Bill Bentley (2nd round pick last year)

6. Cleveland Browns - Tennessee WR Cordarrelle Patterson:

The case could easily be made that the Browns could take Milliner here, but with Joe Haden as the number one guy the Browns don't need to spend the 6th overall pick on their second corner. Patterson would be an excellent complement to Josh Gordon who is best as a vertical threat. Patterson also brings additional value as the Browns PR/KR with Josh Cribbs gone. Greg Little won't stop the Browns from taking a wide receiver with Patterson's playmaking ability.

7. Arizona Cardinals - USC QB Matt Barkley:

I believe in Barkley's talent and the Cardinals have a strong need at quarterback. I don't buy the idea that the Cardinals are going to go with Stanton at starter. Barkley is a pro-ready quarterback who is ready and able to be the point guard that the Cardinals need to get the ball to Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd. Barkley had a poor year his senior season when the Trojans struggled on offensive line, but the mistakes that followed are not intrinsic to Matt Barkley as a prospect. Barkley has underrated intangibles and would be a fine quarterback for the organization.

8. Oakland Raiders (From Buffalo Bills) - Alabama CB Dee Milliner: 

The Raiders positional depth at corner is absolutely atrocious. The Raiders have a serious need here and Milliner has very good value here and can step in as their number one corner right away.

9. New York Jets - BYU DE/LB Ezekiel Ansah: 

The Jets need to replace Sanchez but he has an albatross contract after a head-scratching extension. The Jets could use some safety help and some more playmakers on offense but it would be hard to justify those positions over a rush-linebacker with the potential of Ezekiel Ansah. Last season their LB with the highest sack total was Garrett McIntyre with 3.5 sacks. I'm sure that's not the ideal scenario for the Jets.

10. Tennessee Titans - LSU DE Barkevious Mingo:

I don't believe the Titans will ultimately draft an offensive guard this high based on a number of factors. (Draft depth / History / FA additions). The Titans can go for a safer pick in Bjoern Werner here (which would make sense) but there's a strong possibility they simply go for the most talented player on the board. 

 

Mingo has blue-chip potential and with some additional bulk could be a very intriguing RDE. The Titans obviously have interest in Mingo and defensive end may prove to be the best position for Mingo based on his leggy build and marginal hip tightness. It's very possible that the Titans imagine Mingo becoming a Jevon Kearse type player. With Gregg Williams as a defensive assistant, it's very possible they find a role for Mingo in that capacity. The only impediment is Wimbley being the designated pass-rusher at RDE, but it hasn't steered the Titans away yet.

11. San Diego Chargers - Oklahoma OT Lane Johnson:

 

After releasing Jared Gaither, the Chargers are set up to take an offensive tackle. With a franchise quarterback in Philip Rivers, the Chargers need to make pass protection the absolute priority. Lane Johnson is still "developing" but has the requisite athleticism to be a very good left tackle.
 

12. TRADE: San Francisco 49ers (From Miami Dolphins) - Florida State CB Xavier Rhodes:

In this scenario, the Dolphins have traded their 2nd round pick to Kansas City for LT Branden Albert. In order to re-coup their second round pick, the Dolphins trade down with the 49ers who have a strong need at cornerback and would be a perfect fit for Rhodes. The 49ers simply have too much draft ammunition to not make a move. 

13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Florida State DE Bjoern Werner: 

Bowers has been a disappointment for the Buccaneers and Adrian Clayborn is coming off an ACL tear. Werner is an excellent football player who is a likely red-chip player who can play the pass and run game from the right or left end positions. 

14. Carolina Panthers - Utah DT Star Lotulelei: 

The Panthers have needed some additional talent at defensive tackle for some time. Lotulelei gives the Panthers needed size at the interior. At this point, he provides the most value at a position of need.

15. New Orleans Saints - Georgia LB Jarvis Jones:

 

Shifting to their new 34 defense, the Saints will need a rush-backer that fits their scheme. Jarvis Jones seems to be falling a bit, but this is an ideal spot for him in terms of value. He's not the athlete that some thought him to be, but he's been a productive player in college and has the size/length to be a quality NFL player.

16. St. Louis Rams - Missouri DT Sheldon Richardson:

This is a perfect fit. I think Richardson may go higher than this and at one point I had the Rams trading up for the talented defensive tackle. Richardson is the ideal player to play 3-Tech for Fisher and would be an excellent fit next to Brockers. In my opinion, Richardson may be one of the few blue-chip pass rushers in the draft.

17. Pittsburgh Steelers - Texas A&M Damontre Moore: 

In order for the Steelers to get back to a dominant defense they need to add some real young talent. They typically manage to keep a number of developmental guys in the pipe-line but they need some early-contributors to help aid a defense that is aging fast. Damontre Moore had a terrible off-season but he's a young player with length/size and upside. 

18. Dallas Cowboys - Alabama OG Chance Warmack:

The Cowboys really need help on offensive line and are set at left tackle. Warmack allows the Cowboys to get back to a balanced offense with Murray running the ball. Adding a dominant guard will also help keep Romo upright by solidifying the left side of the line. Even though some may believe Warmack to be the best prospect in the draft, I can't see him going that high. Personally, I think there's some holes in his game hat are under stated due to the fact that Warmack is a likable prospect with some outstanding traits.

19. New York Giants - Notre Dame TE Tyler Eifert:

With TE Bennett leaving in free agency, the Giants could solidify the TE position by taking Eifert. He would be an excellent schematic fit for the Giants as well as a quasi-WR and would add another target for Manning. I'm not so sure that adding Myers from the Raiders would prohibit the Giants from taking the very talented Eifert. They could consider corner here, but chances are they opt to add more depth.

20. Chicago Bears - Alabama OT D.J. Fluker: 

It's not always pretty, but Fluker manages to get the job done more often than not. Blessed with tremendous length and strength, Fluker has the ability to shut down rushers once he gets his mitts on them. Fluker would solidify the right tackle position opposite of Bushrod while Webb/Carimi compete for the guard positions.

21. Cincinnati Bengals - Texas S Kenny Vaccaro:

The Bengals have a hole at their strong safety position and need to replace Taylor Mays as soon as possible. Vaccaro has the ability to interchange as a safety and has good value here. 

22. St. Louis Rams - Alabama RB Eddie Lacy:

Jeff Fisher has never been a running back by committee type coach and it makes a lot of sense for the Rams to take Lacy who can be their feature back. I don't believe that Lacy is a product of the outstanding Alabama offensive line. He's an outstanding back in his own right with vision, toughness, balance and power to excel in the NFL.

23. Minnesota Vikings - North Carolina DT Sylvester Williams

Sylvester Williams is overshadowed a bit by some of the other defensive tackles in the class, but there's no doubt that he's a first round caliber DT with a complete game. He's an excellent character player as well with a great story that will help teams get behind him. 

24. Indianapolis Colts - California WR Keenan Allen

With Reggie Wayne aging and a lack of a complementary #2 receiver, the Colts would be in a great position to take another receiver. T.Y. Hilton is best a slot receiver and Allen would give Luck a well polished target at receiver. 

25. Minnesota Vikings (from Seattle Seahawks) - Notre Dame MLB Manti Te'o:

Te'o never was a potential Top 10 pick and the off-field issues aside, he's a quality football player. I thought he had value in the late first last year, and it shouldn't change now. He would be a very good fit for the Vikings here and will help a quality starter for years to come. The Vikings could wait on the position, but there's really not much talent at 43 MLB in this class.

26. Green Bay Packers - North Carolina OG/C Jonathan Cooper: 

The Packers desperately need offensive line help. Cooper brings the ability to play Center or Guard and has the athleticism to be a complete player. Most important though, he may be the best pass protecting guard and would be a huge help to Aaron Rodgers.

27. Houston Texans - Kansas St. ILB Arthur Brown:

The Texans will be in the market for a wide receiver, but the overall depth for that position is very good and I expect them to wait until the second round. The middle linebacker class on the other hand is quite poor, so it would make sense for them to take that position of need while there's value. Alec Ogletree could be an option here, but the Texans typically don't draft poor character players. Brown is an explosive hitter who is highly aggressive towards the line of scrimmage. 

28. Denver Broncos - Florida International FS Jonathan Cyprien:

The Broncos need to solidify their secondary if they want to avoid the big plays that plagued them in the playoffs. Cyprien is a clean prospect athletically and is a tough player who can make plays in pass coverage.

29. TRADE: Philadelphia Eagles (from New England Patriots) - Florida State QB E.J. Manuel:

 

With three potentially QB needy teams lurking above them in the second round, it's quite possible that a team will trade up into the late first in order to take "their" guy. I fully expect the Eagles to see Manuel as a strong schematic fit with plenty of upside. 


30. Atlanta Falcons - Washington CB Desmond Trufant: 

Trufant is a feisty corner that's reminiscent of Cortland Finnegan. The Falcons have a strong need at cornerback and it's very likely they start a run on cornerbacks here. (leading into the 2nd round).

31. Miami Dolphins (from San Francisco 49ers) - Mississippi St. CB Johnthan Banks

The Dolphins have a very strong need at the cornerback position after losing both their starters via trade and free agency. Johnthan Banks is a talented player who has value but didn't test very cleanly. He does however have size and length at the position that the Dolphins value. 

32. Baltimore Ravens - Florida S Matt Elam:

After cutting Benard Pollard, the Ravens have a need at the safety position. Elam isn't valued very highly because of his lack of size, but he's an instinctive safety with good movement skills and is an explosive hitter. He would be an excellent fit in their system and has plenty of value here.

[JLocker10]

I would be very happy with that pick

[Cyrus]

I would be very happy with that pick

 

At this point I think it should be (although may not be) between Bjoern Werner and Barkevious Mingo. There's an off-chance of someone like Sheldon Richardson because he brings something so different to the table, but the Titans just have so much depth now at defensive tackle with Hill, Martin and Casey. I don't think there's value there at cornerback and I think it would be too early to take an offensive guard.

 

I actually went a watched about 6+ games of Mingo the other night, including some 2011 games to really get a better sense of him as a player. I believe that he plays bigger than his size and plays with more leverage than one would think. He also flashes a spin pass rush move that's Freeney-esque. My biggest concern with predicting Mingo is that it's hard to reconcile him and Wimbley. Does Wimbley still play early downs? Do they both rotate at RDE? Does Hill's size allow them to do that? Those are questions I can't answer, but there's no doubt that he has blue-chip potential and has a far higher ceiling than Werner. 

[Pragidealist]

An "intriguing prospect" that they are "hoping" is kearse or one Williams will " find a way to use"

Great...

[JLocker10]

They can cut Wimbley pretty easily after next season

 

We need a blue chip guy on the DL

 

I get a lot more excited about a Mingo or Star than a Werner or Milliner. More risk, but I'd rather go for the home run

 

I'd be ok with Milliner, but my gut feeling is he ends up having like a Carlos Rogers or Quentin Jammer career. Good players and long careers, not big time CB

 

Werner will be a 2nd tier DE at best. Good player, red chip guy. Not elite. Not difference maker/impact player imo

Edited March 27, 2013 by JLocker10

[Pragidealist]

That's my problem with this draft - two few blue chip guys in the top 10

[Dmeade-]

In this situation I would rather have Rhodes, Star, or Werner.

[Cyrus]

In this situation I would rather have Rhodes, Star, or Werner.

 

Rhodes has a very specific skill-set and unless the Titans change to a press coverage system it's hard to see him fitting. If they do change schematically, he would be a good pick. I like Werner a lot as well, but not necessarily because he's the best player. I like him the most because he's the best combination of low-risk and very good ability. That's a risk-appetite situation though. I'm generally adverse to risk, far more than others.

 

For Star Lotulelei, I'm just not sure how he fits. While he may be the best DT the Titans would have, he would have a similar skill-set to virtually all of them. The only defensive tackle they don't have is a pure pass-rushing 3-Technique.

[Pragidealist]

No solid/ obvious pick

So think outside the box - warmack, cooper, or austin

[Dmeade-]

Rhodes has a very specific skill-set and unless the Titans change to a press coverage system it's hard to see him fitting. If they do change schematically, he would be a good pick. I like Werner a lot as well, but not necessarily because he's the best player. I like him the most because he's the best combination of low-risk and very good ability. That's a risk-appetite situation though. I'm generally adverse to risk, far more than others.

For Star Lotulelei, I'm just not sure how he fits. While he may be the best DT the Titans would have, he would have a similar skill-set to virtually all of them. The only defensive tackle they don't have is a pure pass-rushing 3-Technique.

I know we have been doing alot of off man zone coverages but I think it's a necessity for any team to have a guy they can run in press man. With titans, could it be they have been doing less press man because they didn't have the talent in the secondary to run it?

[Rab]

I think I'd be ok with Mingo, the only small doubt I'd have in the back of my mind would be worrying that he's a carbon copy of the player he's supposed to replace in Wimbley.

[JLocker10]

I like him the most because he's the best combination of low-risk and very good ability. That's a risk-appetite situation though. I'm generally adverse to risk, far more than others.

If you're a team picking in the 20s, you might play it safer because you already have a good roster and you're just trying to make good sound picks to augment your talent. DEN already has an elite pass rusher in Miller so they might be ok with playing it safe with Werner on the other side.

 

We need impact players

 

At 10, I'd rather take a chance on getting a potential impact player with some risk then a mid ceiling guy which Werner is imo

[Cyrus]

If you're a team picking in the 20s, you might play it safer because you already have a good roster and you're just trying to make good sound picks to augment your talent. DEN already has an elite pass rusher in Miller so they might be ok with playing it safe with Werner on the other side.

 

We need impact players

 

At 10, I'd rather take a chance on getting a potential impact player with some risk then a mid ceiling guy which Werner is imo

 

Totally understandable, but in the same sense you need to be aware of risk. Whiffing on a player doesn't do your team any good either. It's okay to sit on a pitch for a homerun ball if you're ahead in the count or the situation dictates it. You don't want to just be free-swinging.

 

In the case of Mingo though, he has the ability to be a 12-15+ sack guy in the NFL. He's a total athletic freak and the only issue is his weight. If he can get up to 255 or 260 he would actually be a far more complete player. He's actually fairly developed with his hands and he's not a guy who's just running the horn over and over. To me, that's the big distinction between him and other players that Mingo might be lumped in with. There's a refinement to his game that isn't obvious even though he's not a complete product.

 

The only concern with me is his weight and his role. I'm guessing that Wimbley will be gone next season, but they will need to find a way to get Mingo some snaps this season as well. 

 

For what it's worth, I went back and watched more of Werner as well. I think he compares similarly to Derrick Morgan but may have a more natural feel for the game - which probably explains why he's able to cover up some of his athletic limitations on the field. 

[JLocker10]

Totally understandable, but in the same sense you need to be aware of risk. Whiffing on a player doesn't do your team any good either. It's okay to sit on a pitch for a homerun ball if you're ahead in the count or the situation dictates it. You don't want to just be free-swinging.

 

In the case of Mingo though, he has the ability to be a 12-15+ sack guy in the NFL. He's a total athletic freak and the only issue is his weight. If he can get up to 255 or 260 he would actually be a far more complete player. He's actually fairly developed with his hands and he's not a guy who's just running the horn over and over. To me, that's the big distinction between him and other players that Mingo might be lumped in with. There's a refinement to his game that isn't obvious even though he's not a complete product.

 

The only concern with me is his weight and his role. I'm guessing that Wimbley will be gone next season, but they will need to find a way to get Mingo some snaps this season as well. 

you don't want to be free swinging, but when you're devoid of impact players on D, I would be more willing to take a chance on a guy who can be one instead of someone who I don't think will be one

 

and Mingo was recently on NFL AM and said he's now 245 lb

 

he can add 10-15 more lb, I'm not worried at all about that

Edited March 27, 2013 by JLocker10

[Cyrus]

you don't want to be free swinging, but when you're devoid of impact players on D, I would be more willing to take a chance on a guy who can be one instead of someone who I don't think will be one

 

and Mingo was recently on NFL AM and said he's now 245 lb

 

he can add 10-15 more lb, I'm not worried at all about that

 

No doubt. His weight gain (and the Titans perceived interest) is a big reason why I even consider him now. I thought he was an excellent prospect all-along, I just wasn't sure if he fit. It's actually looking more and more that he may be more suited for a 43 with his long-legs. He just needs some more weight and strength. If he can do that, he can be a stud. There's definitely a strong element of risk though, but the upside is enormous.