2013 Mock Draft v1.0

[Cyrus]

1. Kansas City Chiefs - USC QB Matt Barkley:

Forget about all the talking heads criticism of Barkley and previous USC quarterbacks. Matt Barkley is a fine QB prospect with all the intangibles, plenty of physical tools and a high football IQ. He demonstrates solid pocket movement, has enough athleticism to roll-out and has an underrated arm. He's an excellent distributor of the ball and despite a down season partially due to protection issues, Barkley is still the top QB in the draft and also a safe pick.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars - Texas A&M DE Damontre Moore:

The Jaguars have been looking for pass-rush help for years and in the end, I think they'll value Moore's physical gifts and 2012 production over Werner's. It's hard to project any pick for the Jaguars right now due to all the upheaval but Moore is a logical pick and a safe one at that.

3. Oakland Raiders - Florida State DE Bjoern Werner:

I could see Werner sliding a bit after the combine, but I believe that he's still worthy of being a Top 5 pick. The Raiders have a lot of needs, but it makes the most sense for them to take advantage of grabbing a top defensive lineman early. They have some aging names inside and a solid defensive end at LDE, but Werner could solidify the line and help protect the back-7 that's been downright bad at times.

4. Philadelphia Eagles - Texas A&M OT Luke Joeckel:

This one seems like an easy pick and therefore, I hesitate to put him here. It's almost impossible to say where the new regime might go with their first pick, but I don't think it will be quarterback so a top-flight left tackle seems reasonable given their issues there. My guess is that the Eagles look at Florida State QB E.J. Manuel sometime in the second or third round. Manuel would offer far better value for the Eagles as he has all the physical tools as well and has solid character. Nick Foles being on the roster may lead to a competition at QB rather than an anointed first round pick.

5. Detroit Lions - Alabama CB Dee Milliner:

The Lions have been searching for secondary talent for years and have generally failed to produce any reliable starters. Milliner is a safe pick and a day-one starter with scheme versatility.

6. Cleveland Browns - Georgia LB Jarvis Jones:

Medicals will likely be a big issue in Cleveland, but between their new regime and new scheme it makes sense to take the most talented player that fits. Jarvis Jones is a versatile pass-rusher who plays with underrated power.

7. Arizona Cardinals - Arkansas QB Tyler Wilson:

This is likely to be a controversial pick, but I believe that Wilson is more likely to fit Arians offensive system better than Geno Smith. The Cardinals currently have no talent at QB on an otherwise talented team. They need some help on offensive line, but they have to get their guy first. If for some reason, Barkley is here, they'll absolutely take him. Some project Mike Glennon here, but I just don't see the talent.

8. Buffalo Bills - West Virginia QB Geno Smith:

I liked Geno Smith a lot coming into 2012, but at the time I was discussing him as underrated guy who has fringe-second round potential. I think he has too many issues from a mechanical perspective and his experience in a unique system may impact his stock over questions of his fit. However, if the K-Gun does return to Buffalo then Smith would be an ideal fit due to his comfort in the shotgun in a high-octane offense.

9. New York Jets - LSU LB Barkevious Mingo:

The Jets need to replace Sanchez but he has an albatross contract after a head-scratching extension. The Jets could use some safety help and some more playmakers on offense but it would be hard to justify those positions over a rush-linebacker who's as athletic as Mingo.

10. Tennessee Titans - Utah DT Star Lotulelei:

First: I wasn't trying to manufacture this selection from the beginning. I think Star is a top 10 talent but he's far more impressive for his overall ability than sheer ability as a pass-rusher. Unless the Raiders or Jaguars take him 2 or 3 there's a very good chance he slides this far due to scheme fit or personnel depth (Lions, Bills). Further, there are seven teams in the Top 10 that arguably need a quarterback. Six of those teams have a new coaching staff. To me Lotulelei is a perfect 43 NT who could no doubt play as a 34 DE but doesn't fit that mold perfectly.

11. San Diego Chargers - Central Michigan OT Eric Fisher:

The Chargers are desperate for a reliable left tackle after turmoil and injuries at the position. Fisher is a no-brainer selection here.

12. Miami Dolphins - Cal WR Keenan Allen:

I feel like Keenan Allen is a bit overrated, but the Dolphins desperately need help at receiver and taking a far more athletic, but raw prospect in Patterson may not work well for them short-term. I could see Allen, Patterson or even Hopkins going here. It's going to be a receiver though, they need to give Tannehill a punchers-chance.

13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Mississippi St. CB Johnthan Banks:

The Bucs need some real help in their secondary due to age and the trade to the Patriots. I think that Banks is solidly positioned as the #2 corner in the draft. There may be concerns about his speed, but he has length, size and the physicality to excel at corner in a number of schemes.

14. Carolina Panthers - Missouri DT Sheldon Richardson:

the Panthers have needed help at defensive tackles for years and it makes a great deal of sense to grab Richardson here. If it weren't for character issues, Richardson would be a definite Top-10 talent. He plays with a motor on the field and is highly disruptive.

15. New Orleans Saints - BYU DE "Ziggy" Ansah:

The Saints have some real problems on defense and until they become more consistent it will be difficult for them to remain playoff contenders. Ansah is a very athletically gifted defensive end who needs more experience in football. He's not a raw player in the run game and can contribute early on first and second downs. He's an ascending pass-rusher and would be a good addition to a struggling defense.

16. St. Louis Rams - Tennessee WR Cordarrelle Patterson:

I honestly believe that Fisher loves these types of players. Patterson is dynamic and a freak athlete. He's still learning to play the game but he has phenomenal talent with the ball in his hands. He offers value as a returner immediately and could develop into a dominant player.

17. Pittsburgh Steelers - Oregon LB Dion Jordan:

In order for the Steelers to get back to a dominant defense they need to add some real young talent. They typically manage to keep a number of developmental guys in the pipe-line but they need some early-contributors to help aid a defense that is aging fast. Jordan is an excellent athlete with size and length who could develop into a serious pass-rushing threat in time.

18. Dallas Cowboys - Alabama OG Chance Warmack:

The Cowboys really need help on offensive line and are set at left tackle. Warmack allows the Cowboys to get back to a balanced offense with Murray running the ball. Adding a dominant guard will also help keep Romo upright by solidifying the left side of the line.

19. New York Giants - Notre Dame MLB Manti Te'o:

All the stuff off the field is irrelevant, Te'o is a really good football player. He was never worthy of a Top-10 pick but he's worthy of being picked here. The Giants really need some help in their linebacker corps and Manti is a three-down linebacker. He had a terrible showing in the national championship game but the rest of the tape for the last two years is very good. He's a consistent competitor, a reliable tackler and a smooth athlete in open space. He may not be particularly explosive, but he's a dependable guy who could be a red-chip linebacker. That's good value for a team picking 19th and has a need at the position.

20. Chicago Bears - Oklahoma OT Lane Johnson:

Cutler is not an effective quarterback without adequate protection. Solidifying the offensive line has to be the number one priority for the Bears. They had a dominant defense last season despite their aging players. They can find linebacker help in the second and third round.

21. Cincinnati Bengals - Georgia LB Alec Ogletree:

The Bengals are actually quite talented across the board outside of their linebacker corps. Maualuga is likely to depart so it makes sense for them to take the highly athletic Ogletree. Te'o would be an ideal fit here as well, but Ogletree may be a better fit here with the Bengals due to his athleticism.

22. St. Louis Rams - Texas FS Kenny Vaccaro:

I'm not convinced of Vaccaro's talent but there's plenty of people who are. It's rumored that the Rams may let FS Mikell go this offseason so it would follow that they would look to a free safety early in the draft.

23. Minnesota Vikings - Clemson WR DeAndre Hopkins:

In my opinion, Hopkins is the most talented receiver in the draft, but for a number of reasons, he's flying under the radar. If the Vikings are fortunate enough for Hopkins to be here, they would be wise to take him.

24. Indianapolis Colts - Washington CB Desmond Trufant:

The Colts have been searching for help at cornerback last season. They traded for the inconsistent Vontae Davis last season but they need to find someone who is talented and reliable. Trufant is a corner with a complete game and scheme versatility. He would be a perfect fit for the Colts and could reliably contribute.

25. Seattle Seahawks - Ohio St. DT Johnathan Hankins:

The only question with Hankins is his consistency. At times Hankins flashes top talent, but can idle at times. He's surprisingly athletic for his size though and would be an excellent fit on the Seahawks line as a complete defensive tackle.

26. Green Bay Packers - Wisconsin C Travis Frederick:

The Packers need help on the offensive line desperately. Frederick has experience at guard and center and has the mentality and physicality to fit the position. He's not the most physically gifted, but few of the best centers in the NFL are. He's a day-one starter and a long-term contributor.

27. Houston Texans - Alabama NT Jesse Williams:

Jesse Williams is a bit more of a conventional nose tackle given his size, but he's light on his feet and has impressive power. He would be an ideal replacement for Shaun Cody should he depart in free agency. There's the possibility the Texans take a receiver here, but I think that they feel that WR Posey can be a solid complementary player to Andre Johnson.

28. Denver Broncos - Florida DT Sharrif Floyd:

At times Floyd looks like a man among boys but he's developing into a consistent player. Floyd is a versatile defender who is blessed with power and quickness.

29. New England Patriots - USC WR Robert Woods:

Robert Woods is highly underrated and is an underrated athlete with exceptional route running skills. He's somewhat inconsistent catching the ball at times, but he has the talent, intelligence and ability to put it all together.

30. Atlanta Falcons - Stanford TE Zach Ertz:

The Falcons will need a replacement for Tony Gonzalez and Ertz is the consensus top tight end in the draft. He's more talented than his former teammate who went to the Colts and has the ability to contribute in both the pass and run game with his excellent size and ability.

31. Baltimore Ravens - Florida SS Matt Elam:

I think that Elam deserves to go higher than this, but his size and a likely average combine performance will lower his draft stock. He would be an excellent fit on the Ravens given his instincts, toughness and tackling ability.

32. San Francisco 49ers - Rutgers CB Logan Ryan:

Right now Ryan is flying under the radar, but I think he's the most complete of the remaining cornerbacks available. Florida State CB Xavier Rhodes gets a lot of attention for his imposing size, but he too often loses track of the ball and isn't particularly scheme versatile (ideal Cover 2 player). Poyer is an intriguing corner, but has a number of character issues following an arrest last year. Ryan on the other hand has underrated athleticism and ball skills. He needs to refine his hand-use at the line of scrimmage, but looks like a guy who can play in a number of schemes and demonstrates awareness at multiple levels of the field.

[Omar]

Good first mock Cyrus...I agree that Star could be there for the Titans, a lot of DL depth

[Cyrus]

Good first mock Cyrus...I agree that Star could be there for the Titans, a lot of DL depth

The Top 10 is surprisingly difficult. I think the Raiders could go either way with either Lotulelei or Werner. The fact that there's a number of interior DL who are at minimum, solid against the run, makes me think that the better value is in taking a prototype edge-rusher. (Plus I think Houston's natural position is inside) Assuming they take Lotulelei, the Lions would be put in an interesting situation with either taking Milliner or Werner. I would lean towards Werner given the fact that KVB is basically done and they have no other signed starters in 2013. Still, their cornerback situation has been awful for a number of years.

In that scenario, the Titans could take Milliner. Not sure if that's the best situation for the Titans and there's the possibility they may still look at other defensive tackles since taking a top corner might not be their top choice with Sensabaugh on the roster. (I'm sure they feel like he can contribute outside next year or the year after)

[Jonboy]

-I'd be very surprised if Barkely goes that high. Nothing about him wows me at all. Seems a little like Chad Pennington.

-If the draft falls that way, hopefully we'd sprint to the podium with Star as the pick. Couldn't really ask for anything more. Hopefully all those QB-needy teams make that reach because it just means better and better players for the Titans to pick from.

-If Fisher gets CP...I riot.

-Overall, pretty solid mock. Not sure I could ever sit down and go through every team.

[VanCityTitan]

Nice job, Cyrus. I enjoy looking at all these drafts you guys do...so thanks for all the hard work!

I would be so thrilled if we got Star. I don't know much about these guys coming out, but I'm aware he's the highest rated interior Dline in this years draft. I felt all last year we lacked a pass rush due to a lack of(consistant) push up the middle. A guy like this that can command double teams and still win battles is EXACTLY what the Titans D needs IMO.

[kyle021]

I'll take it

[headhunter]

I stopped looking at once i saw matt barkley go number one, theres no way. He sucks

[Cyrus]

The best scenario for the Titans might be if Star goes earlier and Werner is available. Then I think it is a no brainer we should take him providing he doesn't bomb at the combine and isn't who we think he is. Werner would solidify a bigger weakness than DT and besides, I'm all in on getting Melton in FA. Assuming we get Melton (can only hope) and Werner is already gone I'd consider Patterson with our pick or trade down. Note, with Cyrus draft a trade down means we might still have a shot at Warmack if he falls or we could still get real good DT like Williams. While I like Star I'm not sold he is going to be absolutely better than Richardson, Hankins or Williams. We could trade down and still end up with Patterson. So we should hope some team covets a guy sitting there at 10 and is willing to deal with us.

If Werner is available to the Lions at 5, I think they do that over Milliner. In that scenario, I think that there's a very good chance Milliner makes it to 10. But does that make sense for the Titans? I'm not sure I love it, even though he would likely be a red-chip guy. Sheldon Richardson could be good value there too (I think he's better than Fairley, as a point of comparison) but the potential character issues are concerning. The Titans don't have the locker room to take any more guys that might have behavior problems.

So in that case, I like the idea of trading down and trying to pick up a second or third round pick. Then you could easily take your pick of guys like Ansah if he's there (he may not be), Hankins, Elam, Sharrif Floyd, DeAndre Hopkins or even a top tight end like Ertz from the 16-24 range.

-I'd be very surprised if Barkely goes that high. Nothing about him wows me at all. Seems a little like Chad Pennington.

-If the draft falls that way, hopefully we'd sprint to the podium with Star as the pick. Couldn't really ask for anything more. Hopefully all those QB-needy teams make that reach because it just means better and better players for the Titans to pick from.

-If Fisher gets CP...I riot.

-Overall, pretty solid mock. Not sure I could ever sit down and go through every team.

When it comes to Barkley, all I can do is look at the tape and personally, I think the tape is very good. What strikes me as funny is how many of those in the media are trying to hype up guys like Glennon ("Strong Arm") and Nassib but neither throw a particularly good deep ball consistently. Glennon in particular can get in trouble with his mechanics and throw some real ducks from time to time. Nassib has to use his whole body to throw the ball 40 yards. Barkley on the other hand can rather consistently throw a ball 20-30 yards with a nice trajectory on target to the outside. The mechanics, balance and platform are there to make those passes routinely. I've seen him throw some beautiful passes on the go route to the outside where he hits the receiver perfectly in stride. In fact, I would say his arm talent is roughly equal to Andrew Lucks. I don't see a dramatic difference between the arm talent, although you could maybe make the argument that Luck's overall arm strength is slightly better (if that).

Much of Barkley's issues stem from inconsistent protection in the pocket. He negotiates it well despite it, but they had some guys with nagging injuries and general lack of talent up front to protect him consistently. He had a brilliant Junior year that no one can take away from him. Only a "what have you done lately" mentality will knock his stock down (and his injury) but even Bradford went first overall after a shoulder injury and not playing for a year. In fact, if Barkley had been injured earlier and didn't play in 2012 I think you could make the same case for Barkley going #1 overall.

Further, the idea that there's a lot of guys better than Barkley strikes me as silly. If Barkley was 2" taller and had a stronger arm, guys in the media would be drooling over him. He's a highly experienced and developed quarterback that is a quintessential pocket passer with four years of experience and a ton of production. Some guys are projecting Geno Smith first overall but he has way more question marks than Barkley (outside of the injury). He played in a conference with laughably bad defenses, played in a unique system primarily out of the shotgun and still had a number of bad habits/mechanics. Smith is still a good prospect in this class (although his production hides some of his flaws - which can be corrected) but he's not better than Barkley by any reasonable measure.

Also, as for Fisher. I think there's a very good chance he would want Patterson. He took Quick (underdeveloped), Brockers (incredible size/length, underdeveloped) and Jenkins (character issues). Nevermind that the Titans took Pacman. Patterson is exactly the kind of guy that Fisher would want.

[Cyrus]

I stopped looking at once i saw matt barkley go number one, theres no way. He sucks

In what way does Barkley suck? For what it's worth, Rob Rang has Barkley going 7th overall to the Cardinals.

[JLocker10]

If anyone's wondering why Star is being called a top 5 talent....

[Cyrus]

Wasn't Khaled Holmes playing injured that game?

[JLocker10]

When it comes to Barkley, all I can do is look at the tape and personally, I think the tape is very good. What strikes me as funny is how many of those in the media are trying to hype up guys like Glennon ("Strong Arm") and Nassib but neither throw a particularly good deep ball consistently. Glennon in particular can get in trouble with his mechanics and throw some real ducks from time to time. Nassib has to use his whole body to throw the ball 40 yards. Barkley on the other hand can rather consistently throw a ball 20-30 yards with a nice trajectory on target to the outside. The mechanics, balance and platform are there to make those passes routinely. I've seen him throw some beautiful passes on the go route to the outside where he hits the receiver perfectly in stride. In fact, I would say his arm talent is roughly equal to Andrew Lucks. I don't see a dramatic difference between the arm talent, although you could maybe make the argument that Luck's overall arm strength is slightly better (if that).

Much of Barkley's issues stem from inconsistent protection in the pocket. He negotiates it well despite it, but they had some guys with nagging injuries and general lack of talent up front to protect him consistently. He had a brilliant Junior year that no one can take away from him. Only a "what have you done lately" mentality will knock his stock down (and his injury) but even Bradford went first overall after a shoulder injury and not playing for a year. In fact, if Barkley had been injured earlier and didn't play in 2012 I think you could make the same case for Barkley going #1 overall.

Further, the idea that there's a lot of guys better than Barkley strikes me as silly. If Barkley was 2" taller and had a stronger arm, guys in the media would be drooling over him. He's a highly experienced and developed quarterback that is a quintessential pocket passer with four years of experience and a ton of production. Some guys are projecting Geno Smith first overall but he has way more question marks than Barkley (outside of the injury). He played in a conference with laughably bad defenses, played in a unique system primarily out of the shotgun and still had a number of bad habits/mechanics. Smith is still a good prospect in this class (although his production hides some of his flaws - which can be corrected) but he's not better than Barkley by any reasonable measure.

Barkley's become so overrated he's now underrated 8-)

I don't think he was ever #1 pick material, but now it seems cool to shit on him

I see people calling him a second day pick now. He's still a top 15-20 pick to me.

Edited January 31, 2013 by JLocker10

[JLocker10]

I think Jarvis Jones is going to tumble far down the board if the medical issues are legitimate

ARI gave up the most sacks in the league this season. I think they would take Eric Fisher

JAX and OAK were second to last and dead last in sacks, so I definitely see them taking DE or Star.

I can see Star falling to 10 for the aforementioned reasons. Outside of JAX and OAK, where do you fit Star?

PHI needs QB and OT. And they took Fletcher Cox last season. DET has Suh and Fairley. ARI as mentioned earlier really needs OT or QB and they have Campbell, Dockett, and Dan Williams. BUF took Dareus at 3 and have Kyle Williams. NYJ has Wilkerson and took Coples last season.

I see CAR going secondary

I think PIT could go secondary. Clark will be 34 next season and Polamalu was hurt pretty much all season and will 32. Is it time to look for a future heir apparent? Elam?

I see DET going DE before CB. KVB is done and Avril is an UFA. And DE is more critical to that scheme. They can take a CB like Poyer or someone like that in round 2

[Bink]

-If Fisher gets CP...I riot.

I would be giddy to log on the day after Patterson landed on the Rams. The Fish storm would be enormous.

[Mercalius]

I would love Star at 10. Good write up Cyrus. I see us potentially having a lot of options at 10, but if Star, Werner, or Moore do fall, I have no doubt we'd grab them in a heartbeat. I feel it's much more likely they're all gone, but I'm holding out hope that one will last til our pick. If not, I'd be much more comfortable trading back if at all possible.