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Cyrus

2013 Draft Approach - Value

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Cyrus   

I was writing out a response to Soxcat in another thread and I began to realize that it really needed it's own thread.

I agree Cyrus. It looks like there will be a number of Ss available in the 2nd round and we would probably have the pick of almost every S in this draft. Not sure who gives us the best value there at this point but it does seem like a good spot to get one.

I also agree we should have a DL guy, DT or DE, worthy of the #10 pick since the draft is pretty strong at DL early. I really do not want a one trick pony pass rusher and hope we can get a 3 down guy whoever we take. But again, except for a few players such as Werner and Star we should have some real good choices.

And there is a pretty high likelyhood with the depth on the OL (a bunch of OTs will go in the 1st round) that we should be able to get good value were we pick in the 3rd. Assuming the top OGs and OTs go fairly early there should be a decent group of 2nd tier guys sitting there. Most teams are not going to dip into the OL in both rounds. A guy like Barrett ones could be hanging around late in the 2nd (like Konz last year) and it might not be a bad idea to even consider moving up a few spots.

The way I see it even if we go S and OG/C in FA we should still consider taking those positions in the 2nd and 3rd round of the draft. We are pretty depleted at both spots and could use two starters at OG, one at S and we still need depth.

Especially considering the Titans pick so high in the third they should be able to get a Top 5 Offensive Guard or Center in the class. Sure, they won't be Warford, Warmack or Cooper but they can be a guy who's quite talented and has very good value. I know the Titans looked at Brian Winters who seems like a natural fit at LG and could be available in the third to fourth round. I also think they could be interested in someone like Cal Center Schwenke who's your classic tough, physical, disciplined offensive lineman. Then there's also Khaled Holmes from USC. I expect the Titans to get a compensatory third rounder too so I imagine that would help things as well. A back to back OL pick wouldn't surprise me in the slightest (two 3rd rounders).

To me, the second round is really going to be the sweet-spot for finding a safety. I very much doubt that Vaccarro (I don't get the hype) and Elam will be there (they'll go in the 20s) but just about everyone else should be there. Is it worth waiting on safety if there's some intriguing faller from the first round? Maybe. I think despite the good class overall that you're rolling the dice due to the general scarcity of good safeties in the NFL. Guys typically get over-drafted, so it's better to get equal value in the second round than below average in the third round. If someone like Phillip Thomas played for a Pac-12 team, he would be a first round pick.

Also, when you look at positional value for the defensive line there's a real possibility that there will be some starting quality defensive ends all the way into the third round or fourth round. Sure, they most likely won't be impact players but they'll be fringe-starters with good traits and worthy of rotational snaps. Guys like FSU Brandon Jenkins, South Carolina Devin Taylor, Michigan St. Gholston (who's stiff as a board but can defend the run) all have value.

Overall, I look at it this way:

First Round: BPA (Particularly DT, DE, WR)

Second Round: Safety, DL, WR

Third Round: Safety, OL, DL, WR

Fourth Round: DL, OL, CB

Beyond: BPA, Depth, Etc.

I think the Titans are higher on Sensabaugh than fans realize. He was a relatively high-draft pick for the Titans (115th overall - barely outside 100) and was a guy that I really liked during the draft. He has all the requisite athleticism and intelligence to develop into a solid starting player in time. In these cases teams will often add depth and competition rather than a high pick. So I think they're really going to address cornerback later than others think (unless Milliner is the unequivocal BPA at 10). Same applies to the DL. While I think they'll pounce on any elite talent, I don't think they feel compelled to "reach" for anyone if the talent isn't there.

When you look at Wide Receiver we can actually see that the Titans really lack any real quality depth behind the starting three. (Britt, Wright, Washington). Damian Williams has proven to be a reliable fourth receiver, but at this point it looks like the Titans "know" who he is and that's a slot or 4th receiver and not a guy who can eventually become a starting outside guy (unlike the Titans situation with Sensabaugh). Hawkins looks like a huge mistake after a fluke year and Preston, while intriguing, can't be relied upon from a management in any reasonable long-term approach. (Will only be a "nice surprise" if he does anything at all). Now consider that the Titans have to plan on not having Britt in 2014 and it looks like a pretty dire situation if you're hoping to develop at young QB.

Washington is limited as an outside receiver and has only been very productive when playing from the slot. Wright, despite being a first round pick, can't be expected to carry the load long-term. That leaves the Titans lacking a real #1 receiver and lacking an outside receiver as well. As stated, earlier, Britt can't be relied upon in any sense. If he did, the Titans would be set, but due to his injury and character issues it will be a big gamble for the Titans to come out of FA or the draft without some type of legit talent set behind him.

One last thing as well. Tight End could be a dark-horse pick at any point. This is supposedly a very talented class with some high upside players. If the Titans feel like Cook is too limited to contribute long-term for his cost, then you could consider a talented TE at almost any point. In fact, it helps mitigate the risk with Britt if you can find a top flight TE who can contribute with a complete game (Like Jimmy Graham, Gronkowski, Hernandez etc).

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AvgJoe   

Great post. Every point you made has a lot of sense to it. Very excited to see what FA brings because that will show what needs the most work in the Draft and starts to paint a clearer picture

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ctm   

The problem with speculating about the draft now is that the player rankings are going to change after the combine and team needs are going to change after free agency.

Round 2, for example, may be the sweet spot for a safety but what if the Titans sign a starter in free agency?

Although there is one thing that I am relatively certain of. If Milliner is on the board at #10, then he'll be the pick.

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I'm not sure an elite DT or DE will be available at #10 or an elite WR is even in this draft ala Calvin Johnson, Marvin Harrison, etc. My guess is B. Werner, Star L. and Damontre Moore will be off the board at #10. If the Titans do pick a player at #10, he better be a difference maker. No more top 5 punt returners ala Adam Jones.

What I keep reading is the value in this draft is in the 2nd and 3rd rounds and some really good talent can be had. Depending on what the Titans do in free agency, if I were the organization I would try to get an addition pick in either the 2nd or 3rd. And if that comp is a 3rd rounder that will be significant.

I wouldn't mind seeing something like this -

SS Matt Elam or Phillip Thomas

DE Datone Jones

OG Larry Warford

C Khaled Holmes or Brian Schwenke

I think it's a possibility if the Titans are willling to make a trade or two, if an elite player is not there at #10.

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