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QBR: most useless stat ever?


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4 minutes ago, BudsOilers said:

No.  You've been caught in too many lies over the years to get any benefit of doubt here.  You did the same BS with Mariota and I correctly smashed you back then too.  

 

Nope.. never lies. Mistakes with stats at 7 am in china on a fast train to Hong Kong with bad reception and loaded with stimulants? Sure. I tucked my tail and admitted to them as well. What could I lie about? I'm not in the locker room to know things anyone else doesn't.

 

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I thought Levis was better today than he was last week.

I will say, Levis is a tough SOB and keeps coming. Reminds me of Tannehill in that way. Mariota would have taken 10 sacks in some of these games because his eyes dropped and he completely folded in si

There always are outlier games like this but usually the end Passer Rating is pretty reflective of play.   This game reminded me of the Mariota 2018 game vs the Texans where he had a near pe

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1 hour ago, Mythos27 said:

I've long said that I don't believe QBs can be "ruined" mentally but they sure as hell can get broken physically. It's only a matter of time with Levis. 

Being broken physically and ruined mentally are completely related to one another, 

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1 minute ago, Lars said:

Being broken physically and ruined mentally are completely related to one another, 

I disagree. Burrow had his body broken his rookie year and came out firing missiles the very next year, He's a dog. If Levis is a dog too he'll do the same. Getting mentally broken by struggle means you were never going to make it. 

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3 minutes ago, Mythos27 said:

I disagree. Burrow had his body broken his rookie year and came out firing missiles the very next year, He's a dog. If Levis is a dog too he'll do the same. Getting mentally broken by struggle means you were never going to make it. 

Well yeah It depends on the persons makeup. 

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I don't think it's a useless stat.  You can bake raw QB stats any way you want and make them useful.  

 

The problem is stats in general are at the end of that chain of events, and for a QB incorporate a ton of different elements like how good your line is, your pass game weapons, to what extent your gameplanner knows what he's doing, what defense you're playing, play calls, and so on.  And then you add a dash of idiots on the internet who don't know shit about football and you have so much noise it's hard to see the truth of things.

 

Where the truth is right now: Levis is a stud of a young QB.  Titans did a great thing going and getting him, now they need to build around him.

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1 hour ago, MacNasty said:

Where the truth is right now: Levis is a stud of a young QB.  Titans did a great thing going and getting him, now they need to build around him.

 I like the dude because I think he has shown he at least can make some throws to give the OC an interesting playbook, but what have you seen that you could possibly be convinced he is a "stud of a young QB" besides heaving up a couple throws against awful secondary play that couldn't gameplan for him?

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On 11/19/2023 at 4:58 PM, BudsOilers said:

This is a massive oversimplification.

 

Simple is good. It clarifies the convoluted.

 

If a guy is 15/25 for 300 yards and 3 TDs and 0 INTs did he have a good game? It depends. Those stats tell you attempts completions, TDs and INTs, he's got 141 passer rating. 

 

What if they lost 50-21. What if it was backups on the opposing teams  in the 4th quarter not moving the ball effectively on offense allowing more scoring opportunity for the QB, and backups on defense that gave up a big screen pass for a 90 yard TD and another hail Mary as time expired for a 70 yard score.

 

What if he got sacked 9 times? Another stat. More data.

 

There's so many variables, and you compile more stats for more data to create a picture, but at the end of the day the data is the data, it only tells you what it tells you - what happened. It's up to the subject to perceive the data in a way to draw accurate conclusions.

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16 hours ago, wiscotitansfan said:

 I like the dude because I think he has shown he at least can make some throws to give the OC an interesting playbook, but what have you seen that you could possibly be convinced he is a "stud of a young QB" besides heaving up a couple throws against awful secondary play that couldn't gameplan for him?

He is comfortable making reads at the line of scrimmage, which a lot of rookie QBs can not do very well.  He is in charge in the huddle, gets the boys in and out and runs that tempo.  He is accurate downfield, which is very hard to find in QBs nowadays, with so many checkdown artists scraping by with screens and short passes.  Guy like him you can do that stuff while still threatening teams deep.  He is brave in the pocket and can read while under pressure, which is something you cannot teach.  And coming from a WCO type scheme to the Titans and their EP system was a tough change for a rook, but he seems to have full grasp of the scheme which in itself is quite impressive.

 

Going back to college he played through injury his last season and never heard an excuse from him about his play.  He also had lost his OC to the NFL, as well as the blockers who helped him to play so well the previous season. 

 

I expect him to work himself to where he needs to be and he has the talent to get it done.  I think the Titans hit a grand slam with this kid.

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Also interesting to see Tannehill also bordering on the risk-takers quadrant. Is this a recent thing I wonder? can't imagine it was like that when the offense (OL) was performing better. The reason I highlight it is because given we know more about Tannehill than Levis as a QB, Tannehill's position here may be more or less the baseline/starting point for a QB in this Titans offense (as in, you gotta get it out quickly and into tight windows due to the abhorrent offense around them). So you may be able to basically link his and Levis' position together, and move them accordingly under the assumption things improve for Levis at some point going forward.

 

Although it kind of seems like Levis is actually looking pretty good on this graph? if a top arm talent came into a bad situation but was still making positive plays where feasible, that's where you'd expect them to land?

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The chart looks at Big Time Throws vs Turnover Worthy Plays.  Hence guys with more BTT's and less TWP's are going to be in the good quadrant.  

 

Tannehill has 9 BTT's and 7 TWP's for the season.  Levis is even at 8 and 8 in less games/attempts.

 

 

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