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Oil prices and the economy


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The yield curve is a reflection of interest rates (short term vs. long term), not a cause of inflation.  Nothing more than a chart.   Inflation is already down substantially from over 9% las

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Investing.com -- Oil prices traded sharply lower Wednesday after a group of top producers delayed its meeting to set output policy, creating uncertainty about future supply levels. 

By 09:00 ET (14.00 GMT), the U.S. crude futures traded 4.2% lower at $74.53 a barrel, while the Brent contract dropped 4% to $79.12 a barrel.

 

The crude market had started the week on a firm note following reports that Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, was set to discuss cutting output levels further in their meeting over the weekend.

However, the news that the meeting has been postponed to Nov. 26 has created a great deal of uncertainty over future production levels, with traders seeing the postponement as evidence of disagreement between the principal players.

Saudi Arabia, Russia and other members of OPEC+ have already pledged oil output cuts of about 5 million barrels per day, or about 5% of daily global demand, in a series of steps that started in late 2022.

 

The oil market had already started the day on the backfoot after data from the American Petroleum Institute suggested that U.S. stockpiles grew over 9 million barrels in the week to Nov. 17, substantially more than expectations for a build of 1.5 million barrels.

If confirmed by official data later in the session, this would be the fourth straight week of builds for U.S. inventories after the Energy Information Administration confirmed last week, after a gap of a week due to systems upgrade, that crude stocks rose by 3.6 million barrels last week to 421.9 million barrels.

 

That release also showed U.S. crude production was holding at a record 13.2 million barrels per day that it hit in October.

 

This record level of U.S. supply is proving a headwind for the market, and posing a problem for OPEC+, as the U.S. appears to be taking market share away from the cartel’s top producers as they, and Saudi Arabia in particular, cut output to boost prices.

 

https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/oil-prices-muted-as-markets-weigh-massive-us-inventory-build-opec-cuts-3240623?utm_source=yahoo&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=yahoo_finance

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The more the US can produce their own energy and be less dependent on rivals and enemies for critical supply the better.  

 

Also, S&P is making a huge push right now that is being underreported on imo.  I'm sure it's influenced by the holiday season but the economy is turning around and inflation looks like it might be finally under control.  If so, it would be a huge boon to Biden's chances for the next election.  Bidenomics was probably the biggest thing opponents would attack him on and that's hard to do when major measures are going up steadily. 

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4 minutes ago, Justafan said:

The more the US can produce their own energy and be less dependent on rivals and enemies for critical supply the better.  

 

Also, S&P is making a huge push right now that is being underreported on imo.  I'm sure it's influenced by the holiday season but the economy is turning around and inflation looks like it might be finally under control.  If so, it would be a huge boon to Biden's chances for the next election.  Bidenomics was probably the biggest thing opponents would attack him on and that's hard to do when major measures are going up steadily. 

 

If inflation continues to decline and the Federal reserve is able to start cutting interest rates, the stock market will take off.  That's what happened last week when a good inflation number came out.  The market moved significantly in anticipation of a rate cut next year.

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8 minutes ago, ctm said:

 

If inflation continues to decline and the Federal reserve is able to start cutting interest rates, the stock market will take off.  That's what happened last week when a good inflation number came out.  The market moved significantly in anticipation of a rate cut next year.

It would be really nice if 2024 helped make up for some of the flat markets the last couple of years. 

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