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NFL Playoffs Divisional Round Discussion


AussieTitanFan08

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Poyer fell apart as this season went on.  Hyde got hurt in our game.  If you understand how they play D, those injuries foretold how they would fail as the season went on.  And they did.  I told logicals I expected the Bills injuries to derail them before they got to the SB.  

 

The way they play D requires optimal health.  

 

The way TN plays has a higher margin of Safety.  

 

The problem for TN is the injuries kept hitting all year and decimated parts of the team.  

 

It tells you that TN can re tool fast.  I do not think Buffalo can with their defense roster build out.  

 

Here's the FA they have for next year.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/buffalo-bills/

 

The Buffalo scheme works for quick turn arounds but it is not sustaiable unless you have elite DL play.  

They don't.  This highlights the difference of philosophies between Buffalo and TN.  

 

Bills D schemes their success on defense.  They took Kiffin's D that McDermott used in Carolina and added some wrinkles they stole from Seattle's SB run D.  Their plan is easily seen on film: they cycle through cover 2, cover 3, cover 6 D while keeping their base a nickel defense.  In this scheme you just need good DBs.  The weakness of the scheme is stopping the run with the front four.  

This idea is wise for how modern passing games are built.  Seattle was the first team to play a majority of passing offenses like this and they destroyed the best passing QB with it when they beat Manning and Broncos.  Seattle did not have to stop power run games so it worked until BB figured out how to beat this D.  The problem was Seattle had elite DBs that never got hurt.  They also had a better DL than the Bills do now.  They also had a cheap QB on his rookie deal.  Buffalo does not have elite DB talent and they always get hurt because their front cannot stop the run consistently and their DBs had to fill in for run support.  
WEAKNESS OF THE BILLS D SCHEME

1) power run games and zone scheme will stress the base package all game.  Your offense has to get up on these teams to use this to beat them.  (Pats beat Sea)
2) accurate oppostion QB can carve it up if you don't get pressure from your front (why they bought Von Miller to deal with KC)  (Pats beat Sea with Brady)
3) Kiffin/Dungy knew with a primary zone defense, you can get away with avg, short, and slow cornerbacks to play this scheme = salary cap attractive = when you have a high powered O.  It always struggles against #1 & #2.
4) If you fill your team with a bunch of small zone defense DBs, when your opponent forces you to play man, you can't = Why Cincy owns Buffalo.  He has elite talent at skill positions to beat the Bills scheme.  Baltimore undertands this and that is why man press CB &/or elite DL play are the best choices to beat Tier one QBs  like Burrow/Mahommes/Allen 
5) When you do not have elite DL play you better have a great Sam backer.  Elite DL play means you can get away with a David Long Jayon Brown.  When teams come out in 21 or 12 personnel and try to run the ball the Bills cannot adapt to get bigger.  TN never has to worry about that with their DL.  Their DL can demolish run games.  TN needs to get elite man press CB to finish off their D.  This is why I am a Witherspoon train at 11.  

 

Your defensive scheme choice should be congruent with your offensive roster build out.  Buffalo is not.  Neither is TN.  Cincy is perfectly built for now.  KC is close but their run game is not good enough and it requires Mahommes to have to be a unicorn.  Hence why he has one SB.  

To win a superbowl with the Bills D scheme, you need top tier defensive linemen and you have to give back some offensive power. This is why the Bills lost the last three years.  They need to sell off their DL parts and consider trading out of the Knox or Diggs contract and retool to deal with the cash hit Allen's contract brought.  They can keep Miller because he is an elite pass rusher but he cannot play full time at his age.  I'd trade him if I could if I were them.  Because of this I think they are doomed for the next few years and will become Marino's Miami teams.  KC did that already to deal with Mahommes deal but rest assured Mahommes is gonna want a re do soon.   

Edited by Bongo59
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Moving on from Lewan/Cunningham/Woods and Dupree (post june 1st cut) saves just over $51 million in cap room and none of them made a significant contribution this season.

I noticed AJ sulking on the sidelines when the Eagles were up 31-7 this might explain it.    

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4 hours ago, dcblanton said:

I don't post on other message boards, but I drop in to see what the natives are saying.

 

The Bills board is split between Josh Allen needs to go and Josh Allen needs more help.  It seems that no matter how bad a QB plays, there will always be people that blame everything on everyone BUT the QB.  

 

Apparently the Bills offensive line is bad, their WR's are bad, their running backs are bad and their defense is bad.  

 

"If you put Josh Allen on the Chiefs or Bengals, Allen makes the AFC Championship according to Bills fans."  I completely agree.  He would be the backup QB and he would absolutely be able to make the Championship that way.

 

I'm having a little fun, but I said coming into the year that Allen was way over rated.  MVP talk was total nonsense.  I have also grown tired of his antics on the field.  He should have been flagged for taunting the Bengals after their first TD.  

 

I respect the hell out of the Bengals.  They have earned it.  They actually beat the Chiefs in the playoffs and went to a Super Bowl.   They weren't crowned as a great team for 'almost' beating the Chiefs.  This week will be a very tough game and I don't know if the Chiefs can win.  I am just glad that the Bengals or Chiefs got and not the Bills.  The Bills were given too much already.

From what I've read on their board:  they blame the GM and coach.  You'd think the GM was 2022 Jon Robinson the way they trashed.

 

Yeah, I got a lot of the OL and DL is bad despite pouring resources into it.  Allen escapes criticism strangely enough.  I saw the WR getting blamed more than Allen.  It's weird how he basically got given a pass and everyone else got blamed

 

Bengals-Chiefs is the real main event next week, should be a great game even with Mahomes a little hobbled.

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2 hours ago, Bongo59 said:

I think Cincy takes them apart

Yeah, but you didn't think the Chiefs would be this far because losing Hill was too big of a loss.

 

Cincy barely beat the Chiefs after forcing a Kelce fumble in Cincy fairly late in the season.

 

Other than Mahomes injury, the Chiefs are set up for a nice victory.  Mahomes injury is the wild card.  Chiefs are much healthier since the last time these two teams played and the Bengals are down three starting offensive linemen and are probably going to be missing Flowers still, though they get back Mixon.

 

I am hoping Hardman can finally play this week.  If the Chiefs have him and Toney on the field at the same time, it will cause the Bengals a lot of problems.

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Warren Sharp here talking about how in Australia we have used suspensions in our NRL Competition (National Rugby League) to try and wipe out the "hip drop" tackles where defenders drop their weight on the back of the ball carriers legs in an action that has a high probability of causing serious lower leg injuries.

 

 

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1 hour ago, AussieTitanFan08 said:

Warren Sharp here talking about how in Australia we have used suspensions in our NRL Competition (National Rugby League) to try and wipe out the "hip drop" tackles where defenders drop their weight on the back of the ball carriers legs in an action that has a high probability of causing serious lower leg injuries.

 

 

 

Interesting. Not to toot my own horn but I called this somewhat a few months ago:

 

 

Honestly I had no idea this was a thing in the NRL here as I don't really follow it. Seemed like an obvious target for the rule committee to look in to.

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52 minutes ago, AussieTitanFan08 said:

So the speculated hamstring strain for AJ Brown might actually be accurate.

 

 

This is why paying him big money may end up being a mistake.  I know we all hated to see him leave the Titans and he is an incredible player, but the best ability is availability.

 

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