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Who should I draft?


abenjami

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I have the #3 pick this year in my keeper league.  Half PPR.  Pretty standard league with rosters, etc.

 

My keepers are Chase and Javonte.

 

Taylor, Henry, and CMC are not keepers so all are available.  I expect these will be the first 3 picks.

 

Do I simply take the left over guy or is there someone else you would consider taking?  Kupp, Jefferson, and Kelce would be there as well.

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Just for some perspective, here's what these guys scored recently in this league on a PPG basis.

 

CMC 20 (3 year average, when healthy obviously)

 

Henry 22 (last year until injury, 3 year avg is 16 PPG)

 

Taylor 14 (last year)

 

Kupp 16 (last year)

 

Jefferson 12.5 (last year)

 

Kelce 12.75 (last year)

Edited by abenjami
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Certainly depends on roster construction. The name I'd consider in that mix is Jefferson. If, for some reason, Taylor makes it I don't think you can pass on him. Feels like RB scarcity means you take the second guy--but Chase and Jefferson won me my league last year with Henry being out. Homer in me thinks Henry will be there and it's just plain fun to have him. 

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How the hell is Taylor, CMC, Henry, Kupp and Jefferson available in a keeper league? 3 of the top 4 RBs and the top 2 WRs....

 

The simple answer is go with whichever RB is there. You would have to take a deep dive into the leagues roster constructions and available players to determine who might be there for you in the 2nd. If you do that and determine you feel good about which RBs will be available then you could justify going Kupp or Jefferson. 

 

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31 minutes ago, CaliTitan3518 said:

How the hell is Taylor, CMC, Henry, Kupp and Jefferson available in a keeper league? 3 of the top 4 RBs and the top 2 WRs....

 

The simple answer is go with whichever RB is there. You would have to take a deep dive into the leagues roster constructions and available players to determine who might be there for you in the 2nd. If you do that and determine you feel good about which RBs will be available then you could justify going Kupp or Jefferson. 

 

 

I also question the availability of said keepers. 

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25 minutes ago, CaliTitan3518 said:

Maybe there is a rule for how many years you can keep a player for or not being able to keep players drafted in certain rounds of the previous year. 

 

Exactly.  2 keepers max per team.  No players drafted in rounds 1-3 are eligible.  Players can only be kept once.  It's a pretty light keeper league.  Out of the top 50 ADP right now, only 13 of them are keepers.

Edited by abenjami
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3 hours ago, abenjami said:

 

Exactly.  2 keepers max per team.  No players drafted in rounds 1-3 are eligible.  Players can only be kept once.  It's a pretty light keeper league.  Out of the top 50 ADP right now, only 13 of them are keepers.

With that info my guess is the majority of keepers are WRs. You don't see many RBs drafted outside the top 3 rounds turn into studs worth keeping. I would go RB thinking there will be a major run on RBs before your 2nd pick. 

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24 minutes ago, CaliTitan3518 said:

With that info my guess is the majority of keepers are WRs. You don't see many RBs drafted outside the top 3 rounds turn into studs worth keeping. I would go RB thinking there will be a major run on RBs before your 2nd pick. 

 

Most of the keepers are WR's but there are a handful of RB's and a QB or two as well.  That's why I was thinking of going WR at #3.  Sure, there will be a run on RB's (there always is in every league) but WR is going to get slim pickings fairly quickly.

 

It's really a situation where I have to decide which of the following starts do I want.

 

CMC/Henry and someone like AJ Brown or Keenan Allen

 

or

 

Kupp/Jefferson and someone like Akers or Hall

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1 hour ago, abenjami said:

 

Most of the keepers are WR's but there are a handful of RB's and a QB or two as well.  That's why I was thinking of going WR at #3.  Sure, there will be a run on RB's (there always is in every league) but WR is going to get slim pickings fairly quickly.

 

It's really a situation where I have to decide which of the following starts do I want.

 

CMC/Henry and someone like AJ Brown or Keenan Allen

 

or

 

Kupp/Jefferson and someone like Akers or Hall

I would take

RBs: CMC/Henry (ADP:3.8) and Javonte (ADP:20.3)

WRs: Chase (ADP:9.3) and AJB/Keenan Allen (28.5)

 

CMC/Henry = Kupp/Jefferson. I think they are pretty similar in positional output. 

 

IMO AJB/Allen>>>>Akers/Hall and its not even close. We are talking WR1s over low tier RB2s. 

 

You could also be in a solid position to grab a top tier TE at your 2/3 turn. Were any of the top TEs keepers?

Edited by CaliTitan3518
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Nope, none of the top TE's are going to be keepers.

 

I'm doing some mock drafts and I don't understand why so many people are picking Cook and Ekeler over Henry.

 

How did anyone miss what Henry did the first half of last season and that he came back from injury already so we know he's 100% to start the season?  Seriously, unless you are in a league with some kind of wacky scoring, how can Cook or Ekeler possibly be ranked higher than Henry right now?

 

I just don't get it.

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Here's an interesting mock I ran into tonight.  I took Kupp at #3 and ended up with Chubb in the 2nd.  I think that would be awesome.

 

I also tend to think the best move for me is to trade down a few spots. Trade my 1/2 for someone else's 1/2 at like the 6 slot.  Then I can still take Kupp/Jefferson and still get a decent RB in round 2.

Edited by abenjami
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Im not super high on Javonte. His ceiling is ridiculous and he is way more talented than MG3. BUT MG3 is still there so Im not sure there is a work load for him to be a top tier RB. I would want that top tier RB. You have a top tier WR in Chase. You could get a tier 2 WR in the 2nd and pair that with someone like Mark Andrews. IDK that seems like a dominate team to me. 

 

 

 

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