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Football Outsiders: The Decline and Fall of Derrick Henry


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You made a point on volume when @BudsOilers and others' entire argument has always been based on efficiency.  You're not even smart enough to understand the actual discussion.  It's why I just stopped

Barnwell has an article about McCaffery, Henry, Kamara, and Elliot on whether they bounce back.  https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/33941400/will-christian-mccaffrey-derrick-henry-alvin-kamar

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5 hours ago, Mythos27 said:

We agree that the efficiency numbers were down before the injury.  I never intimidated otherwise. Where we disagree is that a decrease in efficiency numbers necessarily means the dude is done. That's where you cross over from stating facts to making inferences based on those facts. I disagree with your interference.

 

 What I'm saying is that his actual on-field skills didn't seem  diminished at all. He was running as hard as ever, his acceleration was good, and his speed/vision certainly looked fine against the Seahawks and Bills. If you have examples to the contrary feel free to point them out but I'll remind you again that at the time neither you nor anyone else was talking about how there was anything wrong with Henry. It's only now in retrospect that everyone is shook. I'm VERY comfortable going against board consensus on Henry but you know this already. I remain confident but we'll see.

The real problem is twofold. RBs are a lost need. Look at the draft. WRs and CBs. Tit for tat. Nobody cares about RBs anymore, because it takes too much dedication to make them work, from blocking  to scheming.  Henry is a true, what you see is what you get type back. He has no wiggle, he won't juke anyone, but get him a crease and he can motor. Problem is that height has and will be his downfall, because backs now know to just go for his legs and stay away from those arms. And the fact we have to have a 3rd down back doesn't help. I appreciated Henry over the years, but seeing two backs off the street put up better numbers and had never played here at all pretty much said it all. There are more ways than one way to get running yards. Henry is replaceable. The league has seen years of him so nothing new to see here. We know how to play him.  

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Just now, BlueThunder said:

The real problem is twofold. RBs are a lost need. Look at the draft. WRs and CBs. Tit for tat. Nobody cares about RBs anymore, because it takes too much dedication to make them work, from blocking  to scheming.  Henry is a true, what you see is what you get type back. He has no wiggle, he won't juke anyone, but get him a crease and he can motor. Problem is that height has and will be his downfall, because backs now know to just go for his legs and stay away from those arms. And the fact we have to have a 3rd down back doesn't help. I appreciated Henry over the years, but seeing two backs off the street put up better numbers and had never played here at all pretty much said it all. There are more ways than one way to get running yards. Henry is replaceable. The league has seen years of him so nothing new to see here. We know how to play him.  

I disagree with so much of this I'm just gonna agree to disagree.

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3 minutes ago, Mythos27 said:

I disagree with so much of this I'm just gonna agree to disagree.

Well this is what a forum is for, to express views. But if JRobbed believed Henry was going to bounce back he would have loaded on OL instead of WRs.  We also brought in a passing specialist. I believe we are finally going to get away from the run and try to modernize our attack. 

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17 minutes ago, BlueThunder said:

Well this is what a forum is for, to express views. But if JRobbed believed Henry was going to bounce back he would have loaded on OL instead of WRs.  We also brought in a passing specialist. I believe we are finally going to get away from the run and try to modernize our attack. 

You're of course entitled to your opinion. I just know that it would take so long to explain the ways in which I disagree with you that it would take more effort than I'm willing to give right now. Perhaps another day.

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27 minutes ago, heyitsmeallen said:

Going to be fun to revisit this thread at the end of the 2022 season.

 

Right? Because discussing the possibility Henry may be in the decline means everyone thinks he is....

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13 minutes ago, oldschool said:

 

Right? Because discussing the possibility Henry may be in the decline means everyone thinks he is....

No, I just know this will be a polarizing thread that will be fun to visit at the end of the season. Personally I’m going to wait until he has a full season of declining stats before I side with him being on the decline. Henry is notorious for being a second half of the season RB and he was hurt last season before the second half. It seems silly to me to declare he is done based off of last season. It was his first injury that landed him on IR. We have no reason to believe he won’t regain form based on how seriously he takes taking care of his body. 

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22 minutes ago, Jamalisms said:

Time and touches are the great equalizer and injury seems to play into that (though did limit wear). Hopefully he comes back full strength and hopefully they learn not to run him 30 times a game.

 

Good luck on the last point.

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