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Football Outsiders: The Decline and Fall of Derrick Henry


BudsOilers

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Great thread to bump when Henry rushrs for 1400 + this season.

 

 Henry will be breaking LB’s and CB’s souls with his HOF caliber stiff arm. 

 

This forum is so weird man... they idolize a game managing QB but yet give up on a future HOF RB.

 

Weird really weird.

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You made a point on volume when @BudsOilers and others' entire argument has always been based on efficiency.  You're not even smart enough to understand the actual discussion.  It's why I just stopped

Going to be fun to revisit this thread at the end of the 2022 season.

Clearly Henry hasn't made his 50k payment for the year.  

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On 5/14/2022 at 3:49 AM, IsntLifeFunny said:

@NewsToTom 

 

Think you could give us a breakdown on those numbers? 

I've been busy with non-internet things and haven't gotten around to reading Mike's Friday article yet (and didn't know what it was about until coming here, I just know he's good and when he posts stuff). What numbers specifically are you curious about? If it's FO-related and/or PBP-based, I can get it (at some point, lots to catch up on). If it's SIS, not part of the stuff I can access easily.

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2 hours ago, NewsToTom said:

I've been busy with non-internet things and haven't gotten around to reading Mike's Friday article yet (and didn't know what it was about until coming here, I just know he's good and when he posts stuff). What numbers specifically are you curious about? If it's FO-related and/or PBP-based, I can get it (at some point, lots to catch up on). If it's SIS, not part of the stuff I can access easily.

The stat he discussed was BMT. I was wondering if that stat could be broke down for Henry the past 3-4 seasons by first half and second half of the season. 

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2 hours ago, IsntLifeFunny said:

The stat he discussed was BMT. I was wondering if that stat could be broke down for Henry the past 3-4 seasons by first half and second half of the season. 

 

That would be interesting.

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Henry is going to be 29 this season, has a historic workload and missed half the season last year. This isn't hard. 

 

After 2022 they can free up 12.5 mill by releasing him

 

Hopefully he's still effective this season

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8 hours ago, BlueThunder said:

On my screen it is right over and under the avatar. Just like yours are, with over 8K posts. Time for glasses?

If you are browsing the forum on a phone you don’t see the post count, location, or member lvl. You have to click their name and view their profile. 

 

A55125B4-D9EE-471E-B1BA-72D346E44CFF.thumb.jpeg.a3bcc25fef797e755e98417b118a9372.jpeg

 

 

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1 hour ago, logicals said:

This is really sad to see.

 

One of my favorite players.

What's sad? He was off to having another historic  season if it wasnt for a fluke injury...

 

Don't let tannehill fanboys cloud your mind. They can't stand the fact that Henry is much more important than their posterboy.

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2 hours ago, OILERMAN said:

Henry is going to be 29 this season, has a historic workload and missed half the season last year. This isn't hard. 

 

After 2022 they can free up 12.5 mill by releasing him

 

Hopefully he's still effective this season

If he has another injury-plagued season or does show an actual significant drop off post-injury then odds are they will cut him and save the cap space. If he rounds back into 2000 yard type form then obviously not.

 

We are just going to have to wait and see how he looks this year.

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6 hours ago, IsntLifeFunny said:

The stat he discussed was BMT. I was wondering if that stat could be broke down for Henry the past 3-4 seasons by first half and second half of the season. 

 

Pro Football Reference tracks Yards Before Contact, Yards after Contact, and Broken Tackles.  Note Yards After Contact is pretty meaningless as it doesn't differentiate major contact (trucking a guy) or a defender sticking his arm out to graze the runner as he runs by them,  For example, a defender grazing the runner at the LOS counts - think the long Henry runs last year vs Seattle and Buffalo.

 

They started charting these in 2018 so it jives with DH as the main back for the most part.  There were some interesting numbers

 

  • The Yards before contact metric gives a good indication of the OL's blocking ability and the defense's respect for the passing game.  The worst YBC's were 2018 and 2019 whereas 2020 and 2021 were both the same (2.1).  YBC did rise each year in games 9 onward so there definitely is something to the idea the OL gets better as the season goes on.  Makes sense given the limited reps teams get in the offseason, TC, and regular season practices.
  • The Broken Tackles metric (Attempts/Brk) tells you what the ratio is per carry.  Lower is better.  This folks is where the concern needs to be.  2018 - it was 6.9 and 6.0 for the season splits.  Note however that 16 of his 34 broken tackles that year were versus Jacksonville.......2019 - splits of 10.8 and 10.1.  2020 - splits of 10.7 and 11.5.  All similar.  2021 1st half - 21.9....A huge decrease from prior years.

 

 

image.thumb.png.82c35bd6ea1648861f18ceacef53537b.png

 

 

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Here is an article Mike Tanier wrote about Derrick Henry’s future decline after his 2019 playoff success, Henry then ran for 2k yards in the 2020 season….

https://syndication.bleacherreport.com/amp/2906057-derrick-henrys-playoff-heroics-could-come-back-to-haunt-him-in-2020.amp.html


Here is an article Mike Tanier wrote about Derrick Henry’s future decline in January of 2021 right after his 2k season. Henry proceeded to start off the 2021 season on pace to break the rushing record and become the first RB to go back to back 2k before a freak foot injury. 
 

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/06/sports/football/derrick-henry-2000-yard-rusher.html

 

 

And now Mike Tanier has written a 3rd article for a 3rd season in a row on the decline of Derrick Henry….This guy Is like Bills fans predicting them to beat the Titans every year. If you say it enough it’s bound to happen eventually. Like I said earlier in the thread, Henry is known as a second half of the season RB and last season was on pace to break the rushing record and be first to go back to back 2k…so im personally going to wait until he has a full season and shows actual decline before saying he is declining.

 

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