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Football Outsiders: The Decline and Fall of Derrick Henry


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You made a point on volume when @BudsOilers and others' entire argument has always been based on efficiency.  You're not even smart enough to understand the actual discussion.  It's why I just stopped

Barnwell has an article about McCaffery, Henry, Kamara, and Elliot on whether they bounce back.  https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/33941400/will-christian-mccaffrey-derrick-henry-alvin-kamar

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I posted this in another thread this morning. The numbers are concerning and its very plausible we've seen the best of Henry

 

@titaninpgh FO has definitely taken a hit on DVOA, not going to rehash it here, but this data is different and its leads to concerning conclusions.

 

image.png.873fe200146ea8c3eb8f64d00a2860fc.png

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1 minute ago, ctm said:

A couple of us already posted he should be cut and the resources used elsewhere.  We'll see if JRob made the right decision to keep him.

“If I was the GM, I’d have to balls to cut Derrick Henry.”

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I stopped reading at the drop of in the stats you guys posted amounts to 1.5 broken tackles a game.... If that is what makes or breaks a player in your mind your a fucking wack job. The dude gets 20-30 touches a game this isn't a wide out getting 8....

 

Edit: not saying I expect him out there for 2k again and can see us moving on soon but that is just stupid for a guy with his work load.

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1 minute ago, oldschool said:

I posted this in another thread this morning. The numbers are concerning and its very plausible we've seen the best of Henry

 

@titaninpgh FO has definitely taken a hit on DVOA, not going to rehash it here, but this data is different and its leads to concerning conclusions.

 

image.png.873fe200146ea8c3eb8f64d00a2860fc.png

Yeah definitely concerning. Way more likely than not that his best is in the past, and that table is a big part of the concern. I’m still hopeful he’ll rebound to a top-5 RB level, but if that happens he’s still likely to be overly relied on. All that said, I just wanted to shit post about Tanier. 

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1 minute ago, Callidus said:

I stopped reading at the drop of in the stats you guys posted amounts to 1.5 broken tackles a game.... If that is what makes or breaks a player in your mind your a fucking wack job. The dude gets 20-30 touches a game this isn't a wide out getting 8....

 

Then you don't understand statistics...

 

One or two fewer highlights per game is the difference between an Offensive Player of the Year candidate and a high-volume plodder.

Just to make sure we weren't chasing down some high-volatility statistic that has little to do with future performance, we combed the Sports Info Solutions data searching for rushers from 2015 to 2021 with 200-plus attempts in a season but a BMT% in Henry's 2021 neighborhood. Here is who we found:

 

image.png.d943a6cc5860b4139b849e1684554e75.png

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We all know how RBs trend and what an injury like Henry's means to a player of his position and size. Henry is an outlier IMO, and I think we'll at least get one surprise season out of him. So much of our offense is invested in the run game, though, I wish we'd make a move to get some real insurance and a change of base player. 

 

If I were J-Rob, I'd go out and get Kareem Hunt. The Browns are very crowded in the backfield and invested in RB in the draft. Hunt offers a legit change of pace to Henry, insurance if he goes down, and is a reliable weapon in the passing game. I thought McNichols made some plays for us and Tannehill like the check down option--imagine Hunt in that role. 

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2 minutes ago, NashvilleNinja said:

Really? A decline and a fall?

 

I bet this fucker both walked and strolled to his desk to type that article out.

 

Yes, so annoying. 

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3 minutes ago, oldschool said:

 

Then you don't understand statistics...

 

One or two fewer highlights per game is the difference between an Offensive Player of the Year candidate and a high-volume plodder.

Just to make sure we weren't chasing down some high-volatility statistic that has little to do with future performance, we combed the Sports Info Solutions data searching for rushers from 2015 to 2021 with 200-plus attempts in a season but a BMT% in Henry's 2021 neighborhood. Here is who we found:

 

image.png.d943a6cc5860b4139b849e1684554e75.png

Now repost the stats about the 1500 carry mark.  They belong in this thread.

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Just now, oldschool said:

 

Then you don't understand statistics...

 

One or two fewer highlights per game is the difference between an Offensive Player of the Year candidate and a high-volume plodder.

Just to make sure we weren't chasing down some high-volatility statistic that has little to do with future performance, we combed the Sports Info Solutions data searching for rushers from 2015 to 2021 with 200-plus attempts in a season but a BMT% in Henry's 2021 neighborhood. Here is who we found:

 

image.png.d943a6cc5860b4139b849e1684554e75.png

Ya I know, that was before the line I quoted. Broken tackles are not all the same. So I am not not going to base a players production on something that may not matter. How many yards was Henry stiff arming Sherman into the stands worth? 2? 

 

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2 minutes ago, Bink said:

We all know how RBs trend and what an injury like Henry's means to a player of his position and size. Henry is an outlier IMO, and I think we'll at least get one surprise season out of him. So much of our offense is invested in the run game, though, I wish we'd make a move to get some real insurance and a change of base player. 

 

If I were J-Rob, I'd go out and get Kareem Hunt. The Browns are very crowded in the backfield and invested in RB in the draft. Hunt offers a legit change of pace to Henry, insurance if he goes down, and is a reliable weapon in the passing game. I thought McNichols made some plays for us and Tannehill like the check down option--imagine Hunt in that role. 

 

I'd cum on myself if we got Hunt in here. If it hadn't been for the off the field issue that wasn't CEH would never have been a Chief.

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  • BudsOilers changed the title to Football Outsiders: The Decline and Fall of Derrick Henry

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