Titans looked into trading for Watson and Rodgers

[Jamalisms]

5 minutes ago, rns90 said:

Hmmm...so it's develop as a qb or bust for you?  I think if they can get something out of him, even if it's just the RPO stuff it's a win just based on draft slot.

 

Not really about what they will do. It's about the motivation behind why they selected him.

 

I don't think they draft a QB in the third round to be a gimmick. It's strains credulity to think that they drafted him there with that as the chief motivation.

 

In my mind, they didn't draft him as a gimmick with any ability he shows as an actual quarterback being a bonus. They drafted him as a quarterback to develop and then any ability he shows as a runner of the football in a gimmick offense (that doesn't even seem up Vrabel's alley to begin with) is a bonus.

[Guts]

If they wanted a gimmick player they could have just signed Jared Bernhardt as an UDFA or a similar type player.  

[rns90]

Just now, Jamalisms said:

 

Not really about what they will do. It's about the motivation behind why they selected him.

 

I don't think they draft a QB in the third round to be a gimmick. It's strains credulity to think that they drafted him there with that as the chief motivation.

 

I think they saw tools that if properly developed could lead to him being a solid starting qb.  Now we can argue whether or not he's ever likely to develop them.

[japan]

30 minutes ago, Jamalisms said:

 

The idea that they always bust.

I would have put 'always' in quotes but yeah.  How about they 'almost always' don't make it.

Edited May 5, 2022 by japan

[japan]

25 minutes ago, Guts said:

 

Franchise QB (1st round)  - - - - Malik Willis (elite traits but questions) - - - -Luke Falk/Cole McDonald (Flyers)

 

This is the spectrum I think we are on.  I think Willis is somewhere in-between.  The picture being painted is he's just a flyer, but I think he's a little more than just a flyer.  He is no where near a QBOTF commitment.

Agreed.  He's a flyer+

[Jamalisms]

1 minute ago, rns90 said:

Now we can argue whether or not he's ever likely to develop them.

 

I'll start:

 

The draft is a giant crapshoot and even professionals struggle to project talent into the NFL, let alone tailor their systems to effectively magnify that talent as it develops. Projecting careers is worthless and stupid and most draftees fail. The value of a draft is understanding how a GM views his current team and how he envisions building it into the future.

[japan]

15 minutes ago, Jamalisms said:

 

Team Gimmick only?

 

No thanks for me.

While he learns, sure why not?

[japan]

10 minutes ago, Guts said:

If they wanted a gimmick player they could have just signed Jared Bernhardt as an UDFA or a similar type player.  

They'd like him to develop into an NFL QB and while he is doing that use him in certain situations like short yardage.  This isn't that hard...

 

Hell, if Vrabel was running Mariota out there in certain packages, you don't think he'll do the same thing with a guy with more talent?

Edited May 5, 2022 by japan

[rns90]

3 minutes ago, japan said:

I would have put 'always' in quotes but yeah.  How about they 'almost always' bust.

Only Matt Schaub and Russell Wilson (and he's like a severe outlier) have hit from that round in the past 20 years or so.  So yeah, he'd be going against history here.  Other guys have turned into backups like Foles and Brissett.  

 

But if we are going with multi year starter with years of solid play , odds are it won't happen.

[Guts]

7 minutes ago, rns90 said:

Only Matt Schaub and Russell Wilson (and he's like a severe outlier) have hit from that round in the past 20 years or so.  So yeah, he'd be going against history here.  Other guys have turned into backups like Foles and Brissett.  

 

But if we are going with multi year starter with years of solid play , odds are it won't happen.

 

How can you forget about Nick Foles being a superbowl winning QB! (satire post)

Edited May 5, 2022 by Guts

[Guts]

Overall Bust Rate of a 1st round QB

1: 40.0%

2-5: 75.0%

6-10: 50%

11-20: 50%

21-32: 76.9%

 

60 Quarterbacks selected in Round 1 from 2000 to 2020,  26 Pro Bowls and 35 Busts.  The above was based on Pro-Football-Reference.com’s weighted career approximate value (CarAV), which rewards a player for his contribution to a team’s points scored and prevented as well as overall performance in other key statistics. CarAV is normalized so that the position of the player does not matter.  Just shows how hard it is to hit on a QB in the NFL overall.

 

For reference 56 Quarterbacks have been selected since 2000 in the 3rd round.  Only 6 have made a pro-bowl, and have a 10% hit rate.

Edited May 5, 2022 by Guts

[Justafan]

6 hours ago, Jamalisms said:

 

No, that's a laughable extreme. They built their whole draft around him? It's not worthy of discussion.

 

But we are arguing whether or not they had absolutely zero interest in QBs but Malik Willis just happened to fall to them and they just went "aw shucks, I guess" with the pick. And one part of that discussion is how they scouted this QB class pretty heavily and could have assessed him and wanted him and determined that the place to target him in this draft is right around where they drafted him, which led them to trade up to get him in that exact spot. It also could be any of the multitudes of shades of gray where they had interest in the player and hoped to get him and it worked out.

 

Of course, you could stick with the idea that the only time a team targets a guy is with their first pick and the entire draft is built around that. That would be stupid, but you could believe it. And from that platform idea, you could insist that the Titans just happened to trade up to get a quarterback in the draft but it doesn't really speak to their interest in that player or the position. They're just taking advantage of the way the draft fell.

Clearly they had interest in QBs and they should considering their backup situation and Tannehill's contract. 

 

As far as strategy, I mean, obviously they reshuffle the board between each day and adjust strategy based on how the draft fell.  Robinson clearly is in tune with the strengths and the weaknesses of each draft and has proven over and over again that he's willing to move around to get a guy he likes in a certain area of the draft. 

 

It's absurd, however, to suggest they had Willis pegged as a late third round guy and were willing to move around to specifically target him at that spot.  There is no way the Titans or anyone else could have known he would drop till the late third round.  

[Mythos27]

2 hours ago, AJClown said:

It might be reasonable but for a team that was coming from #1 seed and if the QB would've performed better and made it to the SB, theres no way we waste a third rd pick on a backup QB to fill that role. Durability isnt or wasnt an issue to reach that round if the staff felt comfortable at QB play, instead they did not and drafted QB.

You keep saying this as if it's empirically proven to be true. There is no good reason for us to not take a flyer on a guy with Willis's talent. In fact, we should routinely draft QBs around that spot because as unlikely as it is that they'll actually turn into anything, if they do they value is immense. At worst we can do what New England did with Jimmy G and Jacoby Brisket. I think the interest in Rodgers reflects somewhat on Tannehill but I don't see it with Willis.

[Mythos27]

2 hours ago, titanruss said:

I'm saying that there seems to be a division here that this is just a flyer... when it's more than that. It's not just a guy they consider to be the franchise either... because if you believe that then of course you go earlier even if you know no one else in the league wants him. 
 

This is a guy they think has the talent to improve and possibly outplay RT in two years. Could be the franchise, could be a backup, could be a transition guy while we go look for the franchise... either way, it's not a glowing endorsement of who we have back there currently. 

I see what you're saying but IMO that's a flyer. Sure they think of him more than say a Luke Faulk or Cole McDonald but where they took him already tells you that. For a comparison, look at how the Steelers handled the Pickett pick. They wanted to move up to 15 to take him but couldn't so they happily took him at #20. That's worlds different than how we handled Malik but when people point that out they're accused of stanning for Tannehill. It's just the basic facts of what happened and they give you a pretty clear picture of what they think of this kid. People don't wanna hear it because some still see Willis with that pre-draft #1 QB prospect shine but the NFL and the Titans just told us what they think of Willis. 

Edited May 5, 2022 by Mythos27

[Smokes]

Not shocked about Rodgers Tennessee was rumored as a potential spot.

 

Rodgers probably has a couple seasons left and with Tannehill only under contract for two more seasons I'd take Rodgers too, now how all the compansation would work out I don't know.

 

Watson makes since due to pretty strong organizational ties and that he'd potentially be your QB for the next decade something Tannehill obviously isn't going to be and is pretty much established but at 26 years old has room to grow.

 

With Watson I would think they'd check in just to see how desperately Houston wanted to divorce themselves, hey would a couple of thirds and a second get it done? If so you gotta think about it even with all the baggage.

 

In the end I imagine their interest was more about inquiry vs making an offer.