oldschool Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 (edited) 20 minutes ago, pat said: DVOA is built around the premise that garbage time matters. Teams get more DVOA by dominating. What it doesn't account for is injuries. A great team that was at partial strength through most of the year is going to be undervalued because DVOA while predict their performance with injuries. It's a good model but all models have a weak spot. Exactly. It rewards teams who blow out other teams and win games by more than the expected DVOA variance while over penalizing teams that win by less than the expected DVOA variance and lose to bad teams with low DVOA. It's a good metric but has some flaws that need to be ironed out. As for injuries I don't see how you can account for that in the formula without polluting the data set. Better to exclude it and just say injuries aren't accounted for. Edited January 13, 2022 by oldschool pat, and Mythos27 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mythos27 Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 hour ago, oldschool said: Exactly. It rewards teams who blow out other teams and win games by more than the expected DVOA variance while over penalizing teams that win by less than the expected DVOA variance and lose to bad teams with low DVOA. It's a good metric but has some flaws that need to be ironed out. As for injuries I don't see how you can account for that in the formula without polluting the data set. Better to exclude it and just say injuries aren't accounted for. Precisely. IMO it's a perfectly fine metric as long as everyone understands what it's saying and what is being left out. Lars 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
BudsOilers Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 The flaws in the DVOA have definitely been exposed. Teams like Dallas and Buffalo or overvalued because they had blowout wins either against really bad teams or teams that were ravaged with injury or Covid or in the eagles case resting guys for the wildcard round. In the Titans case they’re undervalued because of all the injuries and a couple of those losses to the Jets and the Texans. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanruss Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 hours ago, pat said: DVOA is built around the premise that garbage time matters. Teams get more DVOA by dominating. What it doesn't account for is injuries. A great team that was at partial strength through most of the year is going to be undervalued because DVOA while predict their performance with injuries. It's a good model but all models have a weak spot. yeah but overall record/playoff seeding predicts who will go further in the playoffs better Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
EatADaK Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just heard the last QB to win the SB in his first start in the playoffs was Tom Brady in 01.Burrow and Mac are a year early u ask me.Raiders could surprise and knock off Cincy,but they haven't had a bye since week 8 and played 5 OT games not to mention week 18.Even if they do beat Cincy think they'll be spent by next round. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
10 A See Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 FTC pat 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
2ToneTerror Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 hour ago, 10 A See said: FTC Shots fired… pat 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amy Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 (edited) Texans fire Culley. I think that is ridiculous he had nothing to work with and they played hard for him we saw that on Sunday. Did they think they would win more than 4 games? Now it becomes interesting. Tim Kelly probably becomes available that is who Vrabel wanted as OC does he make a change if Titans don’t win it all? Edited January 13, 2022 by Amy Alcibiades 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
OzTitan Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 hours ago, EatADaK said: Just heard the last QB to win the SB in his first start in the playoffs was Tom Brady in 01.Burrow and Mac are a year early u ask me.Raiders could surprise and knock off Cincy,but they haven't had a bye since week 8 and played 5 OT games not to mention week 18.Even if they do beat Cincy think they'll be spent by next round. This is also Carr's first time in the playoffs. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonboy Posted January 13, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
japan Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 Josh Allen's secret is a hard dick on game day? https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2022/1/13/22882143/bart-scott-josh-allen-viagra-nfl-playoffs CreepingDeath, Supernope, and Number9 3 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
CreepingDeath Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 19 minutes ago, japan said: Josh Allen's secret is a hard dick on game day? https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2022/1/13/22882143/bart-scott-josh-allen-viagra-nfl-playoffs *waits for THE expert analysis on this* DCTitan, Supernope, and Number9 1 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supernope Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 9 minutes ago, CreepingDeath said: *waits for THE expert analysis on this* Dickerson Road dumpster must be rockin today Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaTitan Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 Can we talk about how God awful Bart Scott is at television? Titan8425, Lars, and oldschool 2 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bongo59 Posted January 14, 2022 Report Share Posted January 14, 2022 Scott is correct. It does work. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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