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"Experts" offer no better insight to the future with their predictions. Why do we give deference to them?


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When "experts" are wrong, they’re rarely held accountable, and they rarely admit it, either. They insist that they were just off on timing, or blindsided by an improbable event, or almost right, or wrong for the right reasons. They have the same repertoire of self-justifications that everyone has, and are no more inclined than anyone else to revise their beliefs about the way the world works, or ought to work, just because they made a mistake. 

 

This true in the NFL just as it is in politics and public health.  

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/talkoffame/nfl/draft-review-jj-watt-goodness-expected-greatness-delivered

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I remember hearing Pat Kirwan talk about the various offseason predictions and analysis articles we see from every sportswriter.

 

He said the authors of these articles are perfectly aware that offseason predictions are just so much useless fluff....they'd much rather focus on meaningful, substantive subjects.    But these writers work for managing editors whose primary goal is to sell copies and drive page clicks;   if the editor feels a meaningless prediction article is the best way attract a few readers on a Tuesday and sell some ad space, then that's what he assigns to the writer.   "I need 2000 words with your predictions for the NFC East this year....and I need it by 9:00AM tomorrow."      And the writer writes the article as assigned.

 

It doesn't matter if they're right or wrong.....in most cases, they don't even care.   They know it's crap...they're just writing down their thoughts on the subject.   But the useless fluff articles go with the territory....they're part of the job.    They just have to continue producing the annoying fluff because that's what keeps the lights on and affords them the opportunity to write about the stuff that actually matters.

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Yes, why do we give deference to sports writers or ellipsis addicted insiders?

 

When these "experts" are wrong, they are rarely held accountable for it, and they rarely admit it either. They insist that they were just off on timing, or blindsided by an improbable event, or almost right, or wrong for the right reasons. They have the same repertoire of self-justifications that every douche has, and are no more inclined than anyone else to revise their beliefs about the way the world works, or ought to work, just because they made a mistake.

 

Typically, they will just disappear for a while only to reappear once people have forgotten the last self-inflicted tarnishing of their brand they've worked so hard to create.

Edited by Frank Andbeans
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We only use the BS they spew as fuel. The only time they matter is when news drops. Otherwise its all fluff and opinions that they cannot stand on and face no repercussion. I remember i use to watch ESPN sportscenter daily, now i never watch it at all. That stuff is for kids they dont know better.

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7 hours ago, nine said:

I remember hearing Pat Kirwan talk about the various offseason predictions and analysis articles we see from every sportswriter.

 

He said the authors of these articles are perfectly aware that offseason predictions are just so much useless fluff....they'd much rather focus on meaningful, substantive subjects.    But these writers work for managing editors whose primary goal is to sell copies and drive page clicks;   if the editor feels a meaningless prediction article is the best way attract a few readers on Tuesday and sell some ad space, then that's what he assigns to the writer.   "I need 2000 words with your predictions for the NFC East this year....and I need it by 9:00AM tomorrow."      And the writer writes the article as assigned.

 

It doesn't matter if they're right or wrong.....in most cases, they don't even care.   They know it's crap...they're just writing down their thoughts on the subject.   But the useless fluff articles go with the territory....they're part of the job.    They just have to continue producing the annoying fluff because that's what keeps the lights on and affords them the opportunity to write about the stuff that actually matters.

 

As someone who has been a published writer in a different venues,  its impossible to overstate the effects of editors and straight up job assignments on writers end product. 

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This is more about scouts than it is about sports writers. Anyway...

 

"J.J. Watt was not a Top 10 pick in his NFL draft."

 

He was 11th! lol

 

That's still a pretty high pick. There are some better examples of scouting failures like Tom Brady or players who are drafted high and end up total busts.

 

Overall though the rate that first round picks end up good players is way higher than 6th round picks. The experts are wrong a lot but it's not completely random. They do a decent job overall.

 

Just look at the MLB draft (which is a different animal than the NFL draft). With this kind of distribution you'll end up with most players not being first round picks, but they're still good at predicting which players will end up MLB players.

 

So, why trust them? Because even if they make mistakes they're still decent. If you can do better then you can make a lot of money!

 

mlb-draftees-who-reached-majors.jpg

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7 hours ago, 2ToneTerror said:

The irony…oh the irony.

 

Bongo hating on Bongos 

 

Except he is only a wannabe expert, lashing out after an existence of continuously being shunned by anyone not brain dead. LOL @ comparing sports analysts to public health experts.

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