Jump to content

Is Ryan Tannehill an elite passer?


Recommended Posts

Just now, XAEA12 said:

I also don't think their WR corps is stacked. Before Metcalf they seemed pretty pedestrian at WR. Lockett is solid but not special, same with Golden Tate.

 

They have been pretty stacked for the last two seasons. It is no coincidence that until Metcalf arrived, Wilson had never had a passer rating above 100 in a season where he threw 500 or more passes. 

 

Last season was the first season that Wilson was very efficient when the offense wasn't a top rushing offense. Even then, he wasn't consistent for the whole year. He tore it up at the beginning of the season, then fell off. 

 

Here are the ranking by rushing attempts and Wilson's passer rating by season:

 

2012: #1 rushing attempts, passer rating - 100.0

2013: #2 rushing attempts, passer rating - 101.2

2014: #2 rushing attempts, passer rating - 95.0

2015: #3 rushing attempts, passer rating - 110.1

2016: #20 rushing attempts, passer rating - 92.6

2017: #21 rushing attempts, passer rating - 95.4

2018: #2 rushing attempts, passer rating - 110.9

2019: #3 rushing attempts, passer rating - 106.3

2020: #17 rushing attempts, passer rating - 105.1

 

And here are his passer ratings by game last season - 143.1, 132.1, 130.7, 112.4, 100.7, 84.4, 128.3, 94.6,    |     57.0, 119.8, 102.9, 78.0, 122.6, 73.2, 93.9, 87.8

 

Games 1 - 8 he was the leading candidate for MVP, games 9 - 16, he was a below average QB. 

 

Playoff game - 72.1

 

I think we are splitting hairs at this point. Tannehill and Wilson are both very very good QBs. Neither is as good as Mahomes or Rodgers. I wouldn't argue with anyone ranking Wilson higher. 

 

The point is that all of your doubts about Tannehill should apply equally to Wilson.

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 474
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Who cares what he did with the Dolphins?  It's irrelevant.  He's been putting up elite level performances for two seasons now.

Any list that has Kyler Murray as a better pure passer than Tannehill is a joke and shouldn't be even debated.  It tells me that this person either has no idea what they are watching  or just doesn't

Back to the original question, because it was a good one. Here is an article from 2019 that examined QB efficiency in different situations:   https://touchdownwire.usatoday.com/2020/05/14/th

Posted Images

1 hour ago, FinFaninNOVA said:

He led the league in game winning drives and 4th quarter comebacks last season. That is literally how the league measures performance with the back against the wall. 

 

This supposed QB metric is mostly a defensive statistic, or at least a combined team stat.

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, pat said:

 

This supposed QB metric is mostly a defensive statistic, or at least a combined team stat.

Not for Tannehill.  In 5 of the 6 game-winning drives in regulation/OT, the Titans scored 30 plus, and more than 40 in two games.

Edited by scine09
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, pat said:

 

This supposed QB metric is mostly a defensive statistic, or at least a combined team stat.

I was responding to the question of whether Tannehill can perform with his back against the wall. Is there a more obvious situation than when the team needs a drive to win the game? I agree it is not the be all, end all QB stat but clearly a QB gets credit when he is able to lead repeated game winning drives. There were at least two occasions last season where Tannehill had to do it twice. He led a drive near the end of regulation only to have his defense allow the other team to tie. Then he led the game winning drive in OT. 

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, scine09 said:

Not for Tannehill.  In 5 of the 6 game-winning drives in regulation/OT, the Titans scored 30 plus, and more than 40 in two games.


Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winston are tied with Josh Allen for #16 on the list of active players with game winning drives, someone give these kids a break!

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/gwd_active.htm

I agree Tannehill is an elite QB, but game winning drives is a wierd statistic with many confounding factors.  It is probably more predictive of TV ratings than QB skill.

Link to post
Share on other sites

One more comment on the initial question - "Is Ryan Tannehill and elite PASSER?"

 

I have to revise my answer and say, IMO he is an elite passer but maybe not an elite QB. IMO, his arm talent is elite. He can make every throw, can change arm angle, throw with velocity or touch, has a quick release, will stand in the face of the rush and take shots, is unbelievable throwing on the run, has excellent mechanics and is super accurate. In other words, elite passer. Maybe only Mahomes and Rodgers are clearly better. Other QBs have different strengths (e..g. reading the defense, running the ball, being elusive, creating from broken plays, etc). 

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, pat said:


Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winston are tied with Josh Allen for #16 on the list of active players with game winning drives, someone give these kids a break!

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/gwd_active.htm

I agree Tannehill is an elite QB, but game winning drives is a wierd statistic with many confounding factors.  It is probably more predictive of TV ratings than QB skill.

The score of the game does make a difference.  Leading a game-winning drive when you're down 36-29 and then tied at 36 in OT is a much different thing than being down 9-7 and taking the team 30 yards for a FG, for example.  Or throwing a 50 yard perfect pass with the division title on the line in a game that if you go to OT and don't get the ball, you are gonna lose. 

 

In context Tannehill has had a ton of very impressive game-winning drives in his two years with the Titans.  From his throw to Humphries against KC to the two against the Texans.

Edited by scine09
Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, scine09 said:

The score of the game does make a difference.  Leading a game-winning drive when you're down 36-29 and then tied at 36 in OT is a much different thing than being down 9-7 and taking the team 30 yards for a FG.  For example.  Or throwing a 50 yard perfect pass with the division title on the line in a game that if you go to OT and don't get the ball, you are gonna lose. 

 

In context Tannehill has had a ton of very impressive game-winning drives in his two years with the Titans.  From his throw to Humphries against KC to the two against the Texans.

 

Tannehill's performance is consistently elite whether or not there is game time pressure.  There's no need reach for a silly stat like game winning drives, where the defense was just good enough to barely hold on and give him the ball for one last shot.

Link to post
Share on other sites

 

 

*In his rookie season during only his fourth game in his NFL career on Sept. 30,2012 Tannehill threw for 431 yards surpassing the Dolphins' single-game record for most passing yards by a rookie QB set by Dan Marino in 1983.

 

Tannehill's mark was one yard shy of the NFL's single-game passing-yard record by a rookie QB, set by Panthers quarterback Cam Newton in 2011. Tannehill went on to set franchise rookie records for passing yards, attempts, and completions.

 

 

*On October 25,2015 in Week 7 victory over the Houston Texans, Tannehill became the 64th QB in NFL history to post a perfect 158.3 passer rating. In the same game, Tannehill set the all-time NFL record for consecutive completed passes with 25.

 

*On December 6,2015 Tannehill became the fourth QB in NFL history to throw for over 3,000 yards in each of his first four seasons in the league.

 

*Tannehill finished the 2016 season with a then-career-high 67.1 completion percentage, 2,995 yards, 19 touchdowns and 12 interceptions and led the Dolphins to a playoff berth.

 

*In his second start with Titans on October 20,2019 completed 23 of 29 passes (79% comp rate) and a 120.1 QB rating in a 23-20 win over Chargers.

 

*On 12-8-19 he threw for 391 yards, three TDs and a passer rating of 140.4 in the 42–21 road victory, earning him AFC Offensive Player of the Week vs Raiders. In his last 4 games Titans scored 35,42,31 and 42 points.

 

 

 

*From 11-24-19 to 12-8-19 Tannehill and Titans set numerous records. Tannehill had 3 straight games with a 77% comp rate all were wins. He joined Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (three games in 2011) as the only players to complete at least 75 percent of their passes with a passer rating of 130 or higher (minimum 10 attempts) in three consecutive games in a single season in NFL history.

 

*Tannehill also joined Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson (five games in 2015) as the only players with four consecutive games with at least two passing touchdowns and a passer rating of 125 or higher in NFL history.

 

*Perspective on the Titans' recent explosive offense: over the past 50 seasons, there have been just 34 games in which an offense has averaged 9.0+ yards per play and Titans did it twice in the past three weeks against the Jaguars on 11-24-19 and the Raiders on 12-8-19.

 

*Since Tannehill took over in Week 7,Titans are getting an explosive play on an NFL-best 16% of offensive snaps over that time. Next closest is 13%.

 

*led the league and set franchise-records with a 117.5 quarterback rating and 9.6 yards per attempt in 2019. Was third in completion percentage 70.3%

 

*Tannehill also averaged 9 yards per attempt while completing 70 percent of their passes only the third QB in NFL history to do so besides Sammy Baugh in 1945 and Joe Montana in 1989.

 

*Led Titans to a 75.6% TD percentage and number 1 ranking in Red Zone for 2019.

 

*Tannehill threw a TD on 7.7 percent of his pass attempts, the highest mark in NFL history for a QB who completed at least 70 percent of his passes.

 

*Tannehill became the third quarterback since 1991 to finish the regular season with an overall and red zone completion percentage of over 70%. (The others were New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees with 74.4% in 2018 and San Francisco 49ers quarterback Steve Young with 70.3% in 1994.)

 

*Ryan Tannehill averaged 12.3 YPA when targeting A.J. Brown. The highest average for any QB-WR combo in last 10 years.

 

*AFC December 2019 Player of the Month

 

*Voted to Pro Bowl and was NFL Comeback Player of the Year

 

*Led Titans to playoff victories over the New England Patriots and Baltimore Ravens getting to AFC Championship

 

*Rookie WR A.J. Brown had four 50+ yard TD catches in 2019 best since Randy Moss (1998) and first rookie in NFL HISTORY to have 1,000 yards w/ 64 or fewer receptions.

 

*Led NFL in 2020 with 6 game winning drives and 5 fourth quarter comebacks.

 

*Titans scored 30 or more points in 16 of 32 or half their games in 2019/2020,among NFL best

 

*Led Titans to AFC South division title 2020 and AFC wild card playoff berth

 

*On deep routes Tannehill completed 30 of 53 passes for 865 yards,584 air yards,7 TD ,1 TD and a 134.6 passer rating leading the NFL

 

*On October 18,2020 against Houston the Titans became the first team in NFL history with a 350+ yard passer in Tannehill and 200+ yard rusher in Henry.

 

*With 3 TD passes, 2 rush TDs & a 145.8 rating on December 20,2020 against Lions Tannehill became the 3rd player in NFL

history with 3+ TD passes, 2+ rush TDs & a 145+ rating in a single game joining Jack Kemp (1960) and Mike Vick (2010)

 

*Helped lead Derrick Henry to a 2000 yard season and back to back rushing titles.

 

*Led Titans offense to most points in a season in Titans history (491),most yards in a season in Titans history (6,343),most TD passes in a season in Titans history (33).

 

*First team in NFL history with 2,000 yard rusher & 3,500-yard passer same season

 

*First team in NFL history with a QB with 40+ Touchdowns, a receiver with 1,000+ yards and a rusher with 2000+ yards.

 

*Tannehill became just the fourth QB in NFL history to produce consecutive seasons with a passer rating of 106.0 or greater. The others are Drew Brees (2018–2020), Russell Wilson (2018–2019) and Aaron Rodgers (2011–2012)

 

*Led Titans to two out of the three best single season red zone TD rates in the NFL since 2004: 2019 Titans 77.36% and 2020 Titans 74.24%

 

*Ryan Tannehill since taking over as the Titans starter in Week 7 of 2019:

 

111.3 QB Rating ranks 3rd

55 Pass TDs ranks 3rd

67.0 Comp% ranks 8th

18 Wins ranks 5th

8.54 Yd/Att ranks 1st

30+ point games has 16 ranks 1st

9 game winning drives ranks 1st

 

Edited by MIKE75
Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, scine09 said:

The score of the game does make a difference.  Leading a game-winning drive when you're down 36-29 and then tied at 36 in OT is a much different thing than being down 9-7 and taking the team 30 yards for a FG.  For example.  Or throwing a 50 yard perfect pass with the division title on the line in a game that if you go to OT and don't get the ball, you are gonna lose. 

 

In context Tannehill has had a ton of very impressive game-winning drives in his two years with the Titans.  From his throw to Humphries against KC to the two against the Texans.

I agree with Pat that it’s a misleading stat, but you’re correct to note with Tannehill it’s been in high scoring games where he’s made big plays. We aren’t talking about Mariota sucking for 3 1/2 quarters and pulling out a last second W. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, pat said:

 

Tannehill's performance is consistently elite whether or not there is game time pressure.  There's no need reach for a silly stat like game winning drives, where the defense was just good enough to barely hold on and give him the ball for one last shot.

It's just one of many stats.  I think what matters more is how well they've done as a percentage because there are several QBs, Patrick Mahomes being the most prime example, who barely have any game-winning drives but are still great.  And there are actually QBs that I think play better in those situations than they do in normal game situations, say, in the first quarter.  But Tannehill since he's been with the Titans has been consistently good for the most part from beginning to end in games.

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, XAEA12 said:

 

Saying Tannehill falls into the category as Cousins seems harsh.

 

Then I looked at Cousins numbers last year. Practically identical to Tannehill.  Yikes. They both also have 1 of the 2 best runners in the league and a dominant young WR. 

 

Is Cousins underrated for being on a small market team? Is he dropped a peg below because of his teams record? Did he drop the ball in big games?

 

Russel Wilson has had a lot of his career in a balanced offense, but he's considered a top 3 passer. Why? 

 

Truth is football is the toughest sport to evaluate. You see a guy play basketball or tennis or golf what you see is what you get, way less variables and dependency on other players and scheme. One game is a 3.5 hour commitment, you might see, what, 25 throws in that time? 30?

 

I can't speak for anyone else but I can't devote the time to really watch all these guys.

 

In limited opportunity the guys who passed the eyeball test for me last year were of course Mahomes, Wilson, and Watson. All 3 make ridiculous throws all over the field both in the pocket and on the move with average run games.

 

Next I'd say Rodgers looked great when he carved us a new one, Roethlesberger looked the part against us and played well before his injury and even had some good games injured, and Brees still was dominant in the performances I saw. 

 

I only saw one game of his but Justin Herbert looks like an absolute phenom. His passing ability appears to me to be truly special like a Watson or Wilson, he's effortlessly accurate and has ice in his veins. Josh Allen looks like he was replaced by a cyborg version of himself, he's twice the player he was as a passer, holy shit. My only knock is he still seems to falter when it counted - same old Josh Allen stuff.

 

Next I'd say Brady, saw a few of his games and while his arm isn't the same he's just a good quarterback, as accurate as he is smart. His throws aren't impressive or eye popping anymore.

 

Then there's Tannehill. He reminds me of Rodgers in that he makes it look so easy at times you take it for granted. He has wheels but he's not a scrambler or guy you see making a play when the okay breaks down, but that's also because he doesn't have to, he gets the play off right when he's supposed to. Big arm, super accurate deep ball. I will say he throws it to the middle of the field way more than the edges, though he's hit those passes when called upon.

 

I'll admit Cousins did not impress me at all in his game against us. Did not seem on Tannehill's level.

 

I have never watched a full Kyler Murray game so I can't speak on him. Also didn't get to watch Matt Ryan or Matt Stafford, but both have been highly impressive to me in the past.

 

I have to say, after going through that list it's hard to call Tannehill an elite passer. It's just a lot of arm talent in the league. He's a great passer but elite to me is top 3 or 10 percent of the league's starters. You could argue top 5 but you could make just as good an argument for any of the other guys on this list too.

 

 

 

 

Cousins and Tannehill are identicial, same stats same players.

 

Watson is much better at football than Tannehill.

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, FinFaninNOVA said:

You say Watson performed on a horrible roster. I say he accumulated garbage stats on a 4-12 team. If the Titans were 4-12, there is no way you're giving Tannehill a pass. None. 

Did Tannehill  "accumulate garbage stats" with the Dolphins? 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.


×
×
  • Create New...