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Name Your Top 5 *Drafting* GMs Sans JRob


tgo

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36 minutes ago, charleytolar said:

Has the "your guy" strategy really worked for J-Rob? Likely none of those "your guys" * (two of four are already gone) will see a second contract from the Titans. 

 

You raise a good and fair question about what the league-wide trend is about second contracts. I don't know how or where to find that info. I've looked.

 

The main issue for me about not offering second contracts is that those high draft choices not getting second contracts ALSO cost us valuable draft capital in the 2nd thru 4th rounds so it's a double-hit. Can't skip over that because in my hypothetical, Thuney and Cunningham played positions for which we were looking... if we weren't looking for every position to be honest.

 

Thuney has been all-pro and Cunningham just signed a large extension of which he is worthy (106 solo tackles vs. Rashaan Evans' 59 in 2020). Don't call them role players. Yes, we might have picked dogs but those rounds are Robinson's sweet spot.


Thuney doesn’t fit the scheme here and Cunningham is overpaid (although I like the player). 
 

Cunningham would be playing Jayon Brown’s spot anyway, not Evans. 

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Just did a quick analysis on 3 guys from my list:    Drafted Since 2016   Mickey Loomis (Best Drafting GM in Football, IMO) :  All Pro/Pro Bowl: 4 Starter: 15  

Man this thread is wild. How can the same person simultaneously believe a GM should hang onto more picks and not trade up because they are stronger in mid rounds, but that their drafting of Henry wher

You seem to have no context regarding how often this happens in the NFL. You could use this argument to say any good drafting team misjudged player values: Alvin Kamara in the 3rd, Trey Hendrickson in

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12 minutes ago, tgo said:


Thuney doesn’t fit the scheme here and Cunningham is overpaid (although I like the player). 
 

Cunningham would be playing Jayon Brown’s spot anyway, not Evans. 

I wasn't meaning to replace Evans with Cunningham. I was just pointing out that both he and Thuney were more than role players as was asserted in an effort to minimize the cost of handing over premium picks in trades-up.

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11 hours ago, japan said:

Tolar comes across as a guy who’s draft knowledge is stuck back in the 50’s when he ‘worked’ the oilers draft. It’s a simplistic view of how the draft works and the considerations that go into moving around the board. His biggest issue is that he has no idea how to properly evaluate a draft picker. If you view them in a vacuum then every GM looks like a stiff. 

The "way the draft" works has never changed. You make your secret board then take turns making selections. You manage your draft capital-- hopefully wisely.

 

I "properly evaluate a draft picker" by looking at his behavior and his results. Robinson's results are uneven and methods costly. I don't just look at them in a vacuum. I framed Conklin in the 2020 all-pro group and he was the ONLY player that cost three premium picks that made that grade. How can that be overlooked much less praised?

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If Jrob is such a questionable judge of talent, why the hell do you two geniuses want him to have more picks?  I mean you complain and whine about that to the point about those golden picks given up, but if you didn't trust his evaluation of Conklin?  What would change there?  Absolutely nothing.

 

So you can type as much as you want about whatever, point is it's just hot air.  And you spend more time complaining about that trade than the games themselves.  

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Just now, rns90 said:

If Jrob is such a questionable judge of talent, why the hell do you two geniuses want him to have more picks?  I mean you complain and whine about that to the point about those golden picks given up, but if you didn't trust his evaluation of Conklin?  What would change there?  Absolutely nothing.

 

So you can type as much as you want about whatever, point is it's just hot air.  And you spend more time complaining about that trade than the games themselves.  

Can you read? I think he is an astute judge of talent after the 2nd Round. I must have said that 50 times and still you miss it. How does the Giants taking him comfortably at 1-10 and we desperately trade a valubale 2nd and a 3rd to grab him two spots earlier. That reeks of desperation and it was costly. I think there's a good chance that Robinson could have turned those two picks into someone valuable while you think he would have gone back in time and taken some of Ruston Webster's players... LOL.

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2 hours ago, charleytolar said:

It's Robinson-sized sample and that is all that matters. Remember he is a 75th percentile rated GM so why would you hamper him with the performance of the bottom three-fourths of the league's GMs?

 

I mostly say what we could have done when coaxed. Most of my pronouncements are what we shouldn't do and they are announced once and forever as the standard. Robinson flaunted that three times in his first five drafts and none of them really paid off. Has he learned? I hope so.

The sample size being specific to Robinson doesn't mean it isn't still so small as to be statistically insignificant. You're being myopic because you think it helps your argument. League-wide numbers matter for the same reason that comparing J-Rob to his peers matters; context. That's your issue here, you remove all context from your analysis. And Robinson got long term starters from those picks which is what you hope for when you target a guy. They haven't been all been all pros (one was) but they been among the better players on our team and helped us win multiple play off games. You try to paint it as some obvious failure when it hasn't been. The trade ups for Evans, Conklin, and Evans yielded us two of our better defensive players both of which have been 3 year starters and an all pro Rt who gave us 4 years. That's a higher success rate than sticking and picking actually... I think J-Rob has come out ahead honestly.

 

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8 minutes ago, charleytolar said:

Can you read? I think he is an astute judge of talent after the 2nd Round. I must have said that 50 times and still you miss it. How does the Giants taking him comfortably at 1-10 and we desperately trade a valubale 2nd and a 3rd to grab him two spots earlier. That reeks of desperation and it was costly. I think there's a good chance that Robinson could have turned those two picks into someone valuable while you think he would have gone back in time and taken some of Ruston Webster's players... LOL.

People are mistaking your views on J-Rob because you continue to align yourself with @TitanTez who thinks he's "average at best" but spends most of his time dumping on him with talk of pissing his pants and dumpster diving.

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2 hours ago, charleytolar said:

How can all of you want to make a BFD about where Robinson "rates" as a GM and then sentence him to do what "league averages" predict? Why not be concerned about the "Robinson average"? Shouldn't he do MORE of what he does well? Wouldn't that generate better results?

Because no matter how good a GM is he is still prone to having a bad or mediocre draft pick. Batting .400 is way better than batting .200 but that still means you're completely whiffing 60% of the time. Your rhetoric suggests that because J-Rob is a better drafter than most that this somehow ensures he will land the right player at the right pick consistently. This is the wrong way to look at it. The league wide bust rate and how little even the good GMs deviate from it gives you a good idea of how hard it is to hit consistently.

 

And btw, the trade ups help increase J-Rob's hit hate. Since you love hypotheticals, his hit rate would likely be considerably lower if he didn't trade up for Conklin, Evans, and Landry. That sword you swing has two edges and my hypothetical is much more statistically likely than yours. 

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The real question is why the hell would a poster be so obsessed with this one topic that he's written mountains of words, posts, sentences over the years that most of us have just shrugged off?

 

That's what really needs to be addressed here. @japan do you have any suggestions or answers here?

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3 hours ago, charleytolar said:

Care to elaborate.... if you can?

Yeah. The whole thing about because we got Henry with our 4th pick in that draft that it’s somehow a negative. It’s a dumb point. Running backs are discounted these days. Does Loomis get dinged for getting Kamara in the 3rd round? You should move on Tolar.

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48 minutes ago, rns90 said:

The real question is why the hell would a poster be so obsessed with this one topic that he's written mountains of words, posts, sentences over the years that most of us have just shrugged off?

 

That's what really needs to be addressed here. @japan do you have any suggestions or answers here?

Yes. The guy is mentally unstable. 

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i find myself curious to see whether, from a statistical pov, the point values for draft picks are in line with the hit rate of the players available in those spots.
 

like, if the hit rate of a first round pick is 50% and a second round pick is 40%, then the combined probability of 2 second round picks is ____ and whether that matches the chart value.  I'm not familiar enough the algebra of probability to know how to combine those two swings at 40%.  But it would be interesting to consider.

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4 hours ago, japan said:

Yeah. The whole thing about because we got Henry with our 4th pick in that draft that it’s somehow a negative. It’s a dumb point. Running backs are discounted these days. Does Loomis get dinged for getting Kamara in the 3rd round? You should move on Tolar.

Henry was a dominant player on a national championship team and a Heisman Trophy winner. Kamara was.... who, what?

 

2016: Ezekierl Elliot was taken 1-4 and Derrick Henry 2-45

2017:  Leonard Fournette was taken 1-4 and Christian McCaffrey 1-8

2018: Saquon Barkley was taken 1-2 and four RBs were taken in Round Two

2019: Josh Jacobs was taken 1-20

2020: Clyde Edwards-Helaire was taken 1-32

 

You should have your facts straight Japan.

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6 hours ago, Mythos27 said:

Because no matter how good a GM is he is still prone to having a bad or mediocre draft pick. Batting .400 is way better than batting .200 but that still means you're completely whiffing 60% of the time. Your rhetoric suggests that because J-Rob is a better drafter than most that this somehow ensures he will land the right player at the right pick consistently. This is the wrong way to look at it. The league wide bust rate and how little even the good GMs deviate from it gives you a good idea of how hard it is to hit consistently.

 

And btw, the trade ups help increase J-Rob's hit hate. Since you love hypotheticals, his hit rate would likely be considerably lower if he didn't trade up for Conklin, Evans, and Landry. That sword you swing has two edges and my hypothetical is much more statistically likely than yours. 

1. If Robinson is a better judge of talent he will have more hits than the league average. Of course, that conjecture is based on a pre-supposition that Robinson is a better judge of talent. Most would agree to that. If that is true, more picks should result in more good choices. That is statistically certain. Nothing is "ensured". This is all in the realm of probability. To what are you referring "how little even the good GMs deviate from it." What is "it"?

 

2. I don't love hypotheticals, but they prove two things: 1) there are always better players taken later in the draft, That does not mean that every player taken later is better than players taken before. It's more a testimony to the uncertain nature of the draft. Better GMs will do better than average GMs 

 

and 2) we could build a better ROSTER by holding onto premium picks. You cannot conclude with any certainty that trading up improves his "hit rate." Stay put and select Darius Leonard instead of Rashaan Evans. Stay put and select Fred Warner instead of Harold Landry. Stay put and select Taylor Decker, Joe Thuney, and Cooper Kupp instead of just Jack Conklin. Then you don't have to trade-up for Taywan Taylor in the third-round either.

 

How would the last two "playoff seasons" turned out with Taylor Decker, Joe Thuney, Coopoer Kupp, Darius Leonard, Fred Warner, an extra 3rd Round pick (Landry trade-up) and two extra 4th Round picks (Evans and Taylor trades-up) on the roster instead of just Conklin, Evans, and Landry? Taylor is long gone...

 

If you think Robinson would have drafted stinkers then this is a moot discussion, but since he is a consensus top-5 or -10 GM (save Tez) there is no reason not to have confidence that he would have made mostly good selections. 

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6 hours ago, Mythos27 said:

People are mistaking your views on J-Rob because you continue to align yourself with @TitanTez who thinks he's "average at best" but spends most of his time dumping on him with talk of pissing his pants and dumpster diving.

I get that, so we are just talking about prejudice then... :)

 

TitanTez is harsher on Robinson then I would be, but that is just his conclusion. Our observations about what has gone on is what is greatly aligned. These seem to be things that almost everyone refuses to address or adopt a "so what" kind of attitude. Of course, what happened in the past cannot be changed but the course of the future is to be determined.

 

When our roster was weakest, Robinson gave up five premium picks his first three years on the job in four trades-up. Two of those players are no longer represented on the roster by anything. Two are on the bubble. That was a bad philosophy to follow.

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