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It’s been discussed ad naseum around the edges, but what are we expecting some of these FA contracts to actually look like with the cap being lowered? 
 

I saw one projection of Judon for 4 years 65 million...I can’t believe that’s even close to correct regardless of the team. Players signing for more guaranteed money this year will have to take quite a bit less overall because of the way this FA is structured. If they’re betting on themselves they will take a shorter deal to hit FA when the TV contracts kick in.
 

Take a Jamison Crowder. He’s a good player; trusted, healthy, and can function in a lot of offenses. His cap hit is 10 million this year. If he’s cut does anyone think he would be signed for more than 6-7 million? Would a team actually offer him anything close to a 3 year 30 million dollar contract? I doubt it. If it was 3 years it’s going to max out around 23-24. 
 

There are only a couple players I see getting big deals this year if they hit the market and that’s Allen Robinson and Carl Lawson. Everyone else will either be forced to take a short deal or be forced to take less money for guaranteed money and bonus upfront. 
 

I’ll bring it back to Davis. If a team offers him anywhere close to what Robinson will make on a new deal or on a franchise tag then he’s gone. I think we find a nice middle ground and make him an offer that is more than respectful but isn’t willing to outbid other teams if they’re willing to take a chance on him as a true #1. 
 

I think if this was a regular year with the cap going up Davis would easily command 14 million a year. I seriously doubt he gets that. I think his ceiling is 12. Would we offer that? 

 

So, with that said, what are you guys thinking the actual market value is of these players finding themselves in FA this year compared to other years? 

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38 minutes ago, IsntLifeFunny said:

It’s been discussed ad naseum around the edges, but what are we expecting some of these FA contracts to actually look like with the cap being lowered? 
 

I saw one projection of Judon for 4 years 65 million...I can’t believe that’s even close to correct regardless of the team. Players signing for more guaranteed money this year will have to take quite a bit less overall because of the way this FA is structured. If they’re betting on themselves they will take a shorter deal to hit FA when the TV contracts kick in.
 

Take a Jamison Crowder. He’s a good player; trusted, healthy, and can function in a lot of offenses. His cap hit is 10 million this year. If he’s cut does anyone think he would be signed for more than 6-7 million? Would a team actually offer him anything close to a 3 year 30 million dollar contract? I doubt it. If it was 3 years it’s going to max out around 23-24. 
 

There are only a couple players I see getting big deals this year if they hit the market and that’s Allen Robinson and Carl Lawson. Everyone else will either be forced to take a short deal or be forced to take less money for guaranteed money and bonus upfront. 
 

I’ll bring it back to Davis. If a team offers him anywhere close to what Robinson will make on a new deal or on a franchise tag then he’s gone. I think we find a nice middle ground and make him an offer that is more than respectful but isn’t willing to outbid other teams if they’re willing to take a chance on him as a true #1. 
 

I think if this was a regular year with the cap going up Davis would easily command 14 million a year. I seriously doubt he gets that. I think his ceiling is 12. Would we offer that? 

 

So, with that said, what are you guys thinking the actual market value is of these players finding themselves in FA this year compared to other years? 

I'll just go through this bit by bit.  I think Crowder would be lucky to get 4-5 million.  With lowered cap, teams won't be spending on slot WR.  I think Barrett will get a pretty mega deal if/when he gets free from Tampa.  I think Thuney and some other OL will get decent contracts as well.  I think players who are their prime and who either have great upside or who have basically shown that they can perform at a high level will get normal-ish contracts.

 

I think Davis will get 12+ million on AAV only because there aren't that many WR who will be free and in their prime.  And the ones that do have cap space need a WR so they could always get by with a low cap number in year 1 and escalate the salary as the cap normalizes after this year.

 

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Even if Davis gets low balled, I think he'll probably do a one year prove it deal in an offense where he can get targets to get a big contract next year; unfortunately that's probably not us. A long term deal at or near market value is probably our only hope. 

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The thread isn’t about Davis, though he’s a part of the discussion. I’m wondering about the rest of the FA’s. If we can’t retain Davis because he ends up getting a big deal then so be it. I’m thinking with our cap situation it puts us in a place where we can take advantage of a bunch of situations where guys hold out for contracts and get left with nothing. 
 

I can guarantee you this if Smith and Davis sign big contracts then we won’t sign any big name players unless it’s Lawson. We’ll keep all of our comp picks if we can’t get those guys back.

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While it’s very difficult to predict contract values this year, I think this offseason will really separate the wheat from the chaffe in terms of GMs. The good ones will have a chance to cobble together super teams and the bad GMs will make

stupid moves and overpay guys. 

 

I think Jayon Brown could be had on a discount, even long term, with both a major injury and this current environment playing against him. His year 1 cap hit could even be as low as 5-6M. 

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2 hours ago, IsntLifeFunny said:

I can guarantee you this if Smith and Davis sign big contracts then we won’t sign any big name players unless it’s Lawson. We’ll keep all of our comp picks if we can’t get those guys back.

I wouldn't go that far.  I mean if there is someone in their prime that could help them, especially a defender I wouldn't let the comp pick get in the way of signing a big name.  That being said they could always go shopping in the cap casualty aisle of the market (there are going to be A LOT of these players) or their "big move of FA" could be a trade acquistion or they could wait till the pick period passes until signing some players that are still there (cough..Clowney).

 

Just a lot of uncertainty, especially with regards to which players will be on the market.

 

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To the OP, I think you'll see an effort to structure deals with lower than normal 2021 cap hits in exchange for triggered option bonuses or guaranteed salaries in year 2/3.  I also think that the mid-tier veterans will get squeezed hard and have to take much less to stay in the NFL.

 

The real problem is that there are maybe a third of the teams with a lot of cap room and then the rest are tight against the cap or in deep trouble (Philly, NO come to mind).  This brings up an issue that is key to each team's cap situation as even teams over the cap can do the standard restructures or extensions to create space easily.  The Titans can create 50 M or so pretty easily but it comes at a cost in 2022/2023.  The funding requirement.  Everyone knows revenue was down significantly but one of the CBA requirements is that teams must have the cash in escrow for fully guaranteed money not paid out - i.e. signing bonus money, fully guaranteed base salaries, other fully guaranteed bonuses. 

 

As such, you could see some teams avoid restructuring guys who don't have guaranteed base salaries (that would have already be funded).  With the Titans, Tannehill and Henry are the only players of note that have guaranteed bases - everyone else would require the funding of new guaranteed money.  I don't know how "tight" the money is but it could come into play.

 

In addition, you could have some teams that have plenty of cap room but not the cash - say a team like Cincinnati - hampered by this as well.

 

 

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2 hours ago, BudsOilers said:

To the OP, I think you'll see an effort to structure deals with lower than normal 2021 cap hits in exchange for triggered option bonuses or guaranteed salaries in year 2/3.  I also think that the mid-tier veterans will get squeezed hard and have to take much less to stay in the NFL.

 

The real problem is that there are maybe a third of the teams with a lot of cap room and then the rest are tight against the cap or in deep trouble (Philly, NO come to mind).  This brings up an issue that is key to each team's cap situation as even teams over the cap can do the standard restructures or extensions to create space easily.  The Titans can create 50 M or so pretty easily but it comes at a cost in 2022/2023.  The funding requirement.  Everyone knows revenue was down significantly but one of the CBA requirements is that teams must have the cash in escrow for fully guaranteed money not paid out - i.e. signing bonus money, fully guaranteed base salaries, other fully guaranteed bonuses. 

 

As such, you could see some teams avoid restructuring guys who don't have guaranteed base salaries (that would have already be funded).  With the Titans, Tannehill and Henry are the only players of note that have guaranteed bases - everyone else would require the funding of new guaranteed money.  I don't know how "tight" the money is but it could come into play.

 

In addition, you could have some teams that have plenty of cap room but not the cash - say a team like Cincinnati - hampered by this as well.

 

 

This is all true. I'd  just point out that the Bengals actually paid out a fair amount of money last year for DJ Reader and Trae Waynes.  But the Raiders did nothing but give out short 1-2 years deal with no big bonuses because they had cash flow issues.  They also overpaid Pineapple T, for some reason.  They would have been better off setting that money on fire seeing as how all their FA signings stunk.

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