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Week 14 Playoff Lineup (partial)


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31 minutes ago, abenjami said:

Rationale?

Tannehill is playing Jax and outside of a few weeks has been a pretty steady and safe fantasy QB.

Murray has been struggling and is facing a NYG defense that has been playing well. 

Murray has a higher ceiling due to his running, but Tannehill is the safer QB option based on matchup and recent play. 

 

Taylor vs Drake for me is about team implied points. Colts matchup vs the Raiders is better than Drakes matchup vs the Giants. They both are in a RBBC situation. I think they are both in upper RB2 tier for this week. Flip a coin if you aren't sure which one to start. 

Edited by CaliTitan3518
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Appreciate your thoughts so far.

 

Before I started this thread, I was already pretty sure I was going to start Taylor over Drake.  It sounds strange to me to say that when their touches have been fairly equal lately but Drake is clearly the goal line back for his team while Taylor is not.  Both have good matchups for fantasy RB's this week.  I just feel like Taylor is about to break out and have a really great fantasy game finally.

 

The bigger decision I can't make is Murray or Tannehill.  What scares me most about Murray is his performance lately and his matchup.  But so far this season, he's been the guy for sure in this decision.  I made this chart of their weekly scores.

 

image.png.5cd1af2881d27e2e2d19125c457c69ba.png

 

The yellow boxes are the weeks when one guy clearly outperformed the other (the bye weeks are compared against each other).  Murray holds a 6-3 lead but no question Tannehill has been the guy the past 2 weeks.  And I do feel that some of Murray's demise has been due to the absence of Larry Fitz, and he might be back this week (he was activated yesterday).

 

Another reason I can't stop leaning towards Murray is the Henry factor.  Murray is clearly the focus of his offense.  Tannehill is not.  If Tannehill throws for 3-4 TD's that limits how many points I am getting from Henry.

 

And then of course there's the always lingering fantasy issue of how bad am I going to feel if I lose because I benched Murray.  Definitely worse than I will feel if I lose by starting Murray.

 

Talk some sense into me.

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6 hours ago, abenjami said:

Appreciate your thoughts so far.

 

Before I started this thread, I was already pretty sure I was going to start Taylor over Drake.  It sounds strange to me to say that when their touches have been fairly equal lately but Drake is clearly the goal line back for his team while Taylor is not.  Both have good matchups for fantasy RB's this week.  I just feel like Taylor is about to break out and have a really great fantasy game finally.

 

The bigger decision I can't make is Murray or Tannehill.  What scares me most about Murray is his performance lately and his matchup.  But so far this season, he's been the guy for sure in this decision.  I made this chart of their weekly scores.

 

image.png.5cd1af2881d27e2e2d19125c457c69ba.png

 

The yellow boxes are the weeks when one guy clearly outperformed the other (the bye weeks are compared against each other).  Murray holds a 6-3 lead but no question Tannehill has been the guy the past 2 weeks.  And I do feel that some of Murray's demise has been due to the absence of Larry Fitz, and he might be back this week (he was activated yesterday).

 

Another reason I can't stop leaning towards Murray is the Henry factor.  Murray is clearly the focus of his offense.  Tannehill is not.  If Tannehill throws for 3-4 TD's that limits how many points I am getting from Henry.

 

And then of course there's the always lingering fantasy issue of how bad am I going to feel if I lose because I benched Murray.  Definitely worse than I will feel if I lose by starting Murray.

 

Talk some sense into me.

I watched the Giants shut down Russell Wilson and the Seahawks last weekend. That with Murray coming back down to the earth the last few weeks makes he think he isn’t as safe as a play as he was the first half of the year. 
 

It really comes down to what you need from your QB. If you need a safe floor I think Tannehill is the play. If you need a big score Murray is the better play. 
 

 

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1 hour ago, CaliTitan3518 said:

It really comes down to what you need from your QB. If you need a safe floor I think Tannehill is the play. If you need a big score Murray is the better play. 
 

 

I agree with the first sentence.  But is Tanne really the safer floor?

 

I know 20 points is sort of an arbitrary line to draw but Murray has only been below 20 once.  Tanne has been below it 4 times.

 

I see this as more of a decision of "how much do you trust Kyler"?

Edited by abenjami
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25 minutes ago, abenjami said:

 

I agree with the first sentence.  But is Tanne really the safer floor?

 

I know 20 points is sort of an arbitrary line to draw but Murray has only been below 20 once.  Tanne has been below it 4 times.

 

I see this as more of a decision of "how much do you trust Kyler"?

Yes, Tannehill vs Jax has a safer floor than Murray vs NYG. I would be less concerned about Tannehill having a poor game. 
 

30 implied point total for us 

23.75 implied point total for AZ

 

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/start/kyler-murray-ryan-tannehill.php

 

Don’t over think it. If you want the upside go with Murray. 

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3 minutes ago, CaliTitan3518 said:

Yes, Tannehill vs Jax has a safer floor than Murray vs NYG. I would be less concerned about Tannehill having a poor game. 
 

30 implied point total for us 

23.75 implied point total for AZ

 

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/start/kyler-murray-ryan-tannehill.php

 

Don’t over think it. If you want the upside go with Murray. 

 

I use fantasy pros as well for some of my research.  Sometimes it doesn't add up. The consensus higher ranked start this week is Tannehill by a longshot but then the projection says Kyler beats him by half a point.

 

But yeah, I totally agree Tanne is the safer play.  Better matchup and more consistent the past few weeks.

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14 minutes ago, abenjami said:

 

I use fantasy pros as well for some of my research.  Sometimes it doesn't add up. The consensus higher ranked start this week is Tannehill by a longshot but then the projection says Kyler beats him by half a point.

 

But yeah, I totally agree Tanne is the safer play.  Better matchup and more consistent the past few weeks.

It’s consensus rankings of the top fantasy analysts vs only fantasypros projections. 

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10 hours ago, CaliTitan3518 said:

It’s consensus rankings of the top fantasy analysts vs only fantasypros projections. 

Ah ok.  I knew the consensus rankings were that but I assumed the projections were the same and not just from fantasypros.

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Need some advice y’all:


League 1

 

RB:

Clyde Edwards-Hellaire vs MIA

J.K. Dobbins vs CLE 

Devin Singletary vs PITT

 

Flex

Mike Evans vs MIN

Brandon Aiyuk vs WSH

Chase Claypool vs BUF

 Or one of the RBs from Dobbins/Singletary/CEH


TE

Hunter Henry vs ATL

Jonnu vs JAX

 

League 2:


TE

Robert Tonyan vs DET

Jonnu vs JAX

Firkser vs JAX

 

Flex

Tim Patrick vs CAR

Allen Lazard vs DET,

Zack Moss vs PITT

Kalen Ballage vs ATL

Or one of Tonyan/Jonnu/Firkser that I don’t start at TE

 

Some tough decisions to make this week. 

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1 hour ago, titanskick8851 said:

Need some advice y’all:


League 1

 

RB:

Clyde Edwards-Hellaire vs MIA

J.K. Dobbins vs CLE 

Devin Singletary vs PITT

 

Flex

Mike Evans vs MIN

Brandon Aiyuk vs WSH

Chase Claypool vs BUF

 Or one of the RBs from Dobbins/Singletary/CEH


TE

Hunter Henry vs ATL

Jonnu vs JAX

 

League 2:


TE

Robert Tonyan vs DET

Jonnu vs JAX

Firkser vs JAX

 

Flex

Tim Patrick vs CAR

Allen Lazard vs DET,

Zack Moss vs PITT

Kalen Ballage vs ATL

Or one of Tonyan/Jonnu/Firkser that I don’t start at TE

 

Some tough decisions to make this week. 

I’ll go Clyde, Dobbins, evans and Henry

 

League 2

 

Tonyan and I don’t really know lol. Those are all pretty crappy. I’d go Patrick I guess 

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3 minutes ago, titanskick8851 said:

If you could only pick one would you pick CEH or Dobbins? I have Chubb starting at my other RB spot.

Toss up. 

 

I think I would go Clyde just because the Ravens RB split is a question mark every week.

 

It did look like Dobbins was trending to be the guy before the covid outbreak so If you are assuming that will continue you should go with Dobbins 

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