Derrick Henry - week 2 vs Jags

[Mythos27]

16 hours ago, bizzyeddie said:

What do you mean when you say the passing game is more efficient...I think it would be just by the nature of it...of course you will gain more yards on less plays by passing the ball.

 

Not sure how this is relevant.

It's more efficient compared to other NFL passing games. As a general benchmark, if you're under 4.0 ypc in the run game it can be said you're struggling with efficiency. Henry is sitting at 3.6 which isn't horrible mind you but not where we want to be and much further away from where we were. In contrast, Tannehill was at 9.96 yards per attempt compared to 9.6 last season. Now, our passing efficiency was terrible against Denver but so was our run efficiency and we saw the lackluster offense it produced. 

[BudsOilers]

32 minutes ago, Mythos27 said:

It's more efficient compared to other NFL passing games. As a general benchmark, if you're under 4.0 ypc in the run game it can be said you're struggling with efficiency. Henry is sitting at 3.6 which isn't horrible mind you but not where we want to be and much further away from where we were. In contrast, Tannehill was at 9.96 yards per attempt compared to 9.6 last season. Now, our passing efficiency was terrible against Denver but so was our run efficiency and we saw the lackluster offense it produced. 

3.6 is actually horrible.  The sample size is small so it surely will get better or he'll lose carries to Evans.

[Mythos27]

Just now, BudAdams said:

3.6 is actually horrible.  The sample size is small so it surely will get better or he'll lose carries to Evans.

We're probably mincing words but considering that 4.0 is my threshold for good, I can't see 3.6 as horrible. It certainly isn't ideal but a run game can still be somewhat effective at a 3.6 clip. Now the 3.3 we saw last week, I would consider horrible. 

[bizzyeddie]

2 hours ago, Mythos27 said:

It's more efficient compared to other NFL passing games. As a general benchmark, if you're under 4.0 ypc in the run game it can be said you're struggling with efficiency. Henry is sitting at 3.6 which isn't horrible mind you but not where we want to be and much further away from where we were. In contrast, Tannehill was at 9.96 yards per attempt compared to 9.6 last season. Now, our passing efficiency was terrible against Denver but so was our run efficiency and we saw the lackluster offense it produced. 

I guess I just don't think that stat tells much of the story at this point in the season.

The running game vs the jags was good and based on how the Titans run the offense it was very effective in not only getting first downs but setting up the play action.

 

The passing efficiency is obviously better based off of the opening drive vs jax...77 yds 3 plays..I think Henry picked up a yard on 1 run.

But from that point on I think the running game carried us or at least was as important as the passing game.

 

Overall the idea that Henry is struggling or can easily be replaced by evans is way overblown.  He had a good game vs jax.  And it was only the second game of the season.

[Mythos27]

49 minutes ago, bizzyeddie said:

I guess I just don't think that stat tells much of the story at this point in the season.

The running game vs the jags was good and based on how the Titans run the offense it was very effective in not only getting first downs but setting up the play action.

 

The passing efficiency is obviously better based off of the opening drive vs jax...77 yds 3 plays..I think Henry picked up a yard on 1 run.

But from that point on I think the running game carried us or at least was as important as the passing game.

 

Overall the idea that Henry is struggling or can easily be replaced by evans is way overblown.  He had a good game vs jax.  And it was only the second game of the season.

You can feel it's overblown but the fact is that the running game is struggling and the efficiency numbers bear that out. I haven't said anything about Evans and I sure don't think that a rookie coming off a hamstring injury will be a cure-all. Again, people are interpreting stating simple facts about the running game as some sort of attack or indictment on Henry when outside of maybe a poster or two, no one thinks this. It really isn't debatable that the passing game is much more efficient than the running game right now or that the running game has a long way to go before it can get back on track to what we saw last season. 

[bizzyeddie]

22 minutes ago, Mythos27 said:

You can feel it's overblown but the fact is that the running game is struggling and the efficiency numbers bear that out. I haven't said anything about Evans and I sure don't think that a rookie coming off a hamstring injury will be a cure-all. Again, people are interpreting stating simple facts about the running game as some sort of attack or indictment on Henry when outside of maybe a poster or two, no one thinks this. It really isn't debatable that the passing game is much more efficient than the running game right now or that the running game has a long way to go before it can get back on track to what we saw last season. 

The evans easily replacing Henry notion is just a few posters..your right about that but the idea that the running game is struggling is the general consensus of the board IMO.

 

But if your gonna say the running game struggles are not even debatable based off the YPC after two games (one game which I agree wasn't very good) then that to me is foolish. 

 

6 games or so from now sure.  It will start to paint a better picture but right now just watching a game and breaking down the run game play by play taking into account the situation and the effect it has on the game gives you a much better sense of how good or bad the run game is 

 

But I get numbers are easier to decipher and inturn harder to debate.

 

The running games hasn't produced the explosive play but that is not so much the intended result as it is with the passing game.  Especially in this offensive scheme.

[Number9]

I think when you say the run game is struggling, it points a finger at Henry in a lot of people's minds.  The correct way to put it is the offense is struggling.  The Titans run a run based offense.  They are having to keep running because of all the injuries.  The #1 wr, Henry's relief and our #1 draft pick are all out. Adoree and Beasley are out. Plus other players on both sides of the ball.  The Titans have to stretch the game out.  Everybody knows they are going to run, but it's the smartest thing for them to do.  So, Henry runs into 7,8 man boxed fronts.  

 

Henry's second half production was 12 carries  41 yds, 3.4ypc.  He's not running slow/soft, he running like a pro who plans to play 16 games, plus playoff games.

 

Let’s have a teaching moment for the entire board.  Below is the film of Derrick’s play in the second half of the Jaguars game.  We can grade/examine his contribution.  Would someone/anyone point out what is wrong with Henry’s performance?  Just use the game film presented by @nine below.  Help the board to understand what we are looking at.  I thought Henry had a decent game, but I do not consider myself a great football analyst.

 

Please include the time mark in your review.  Such as, @7:09 Henry ran toward theTitans goal and you think he should have run toward the Miami goal line.

 

Why am I asking?  Henry did a fantastic, actually extraordinary job for the Titans getting to the playoffs.  Also Henry was the biggest reason the Titans won two games on the road in the playoffs.  He put up a ton of yards, opened up the passing game and kept the opposing defenses on the bench.  I think he deserves tremendous respect and not get nitpicked two games into the 2020 season.  Especially when he was such a major contributor to those wins.

 

 

[wiscotitansfan]

Dude, you're pandering to no one. Who here is nitpicking Henry and not giving him respect? Pointing out the amount of carries he has being very relevant to his total yards is a far cry from trying to drag the guy through the mud.

[BudsOilers]

11 minutes ago, Number9 said:

I think when you say the run game is struggling, it points a finger at Henry in a lot of people's minds.  The correct way to put it is the offense is struggling.  The Titans run a run based offense.  They are having to keep running because of all the injuries.  The #1 wr, Henry's relief and our #1 draft pick are all out. Adoree and Beasley are out. Plus other players on both sides of the ball.  The Titans have to stretch the game out.  Everybody knows they are going to run, but it's the smartest thing for them to do.  So, Henry runs into 7,8 man boxed fronts.  

 

Henry's second half production was 12 carries  41 yds, 3.4ypc.  He's not running slow/soft, he running like a pro who plans to play 16 games, plus playoff games.

 

Let’s have a teaching moment for the entire board.  Below is the film of Derrick’s play in the second half of the Jaguars game.  We can grade/examine his contribution.  Would someone/anyone point out what is wrong with Henry’s performance?  Just use the game film presented by @nine below.  Help the board to understand what we are looking at.  I thought Henry had a decent game, but I do not consider myself a great football analyst.

 

Please include the time mark in your review.  Such as, @7:09 Henry ran toward theTitans goal and you think he should have run toward the Miami goal line.

 

Why am I asking?  Henry did a fantastic, actually extraordinary job for the Titans getting to the playoffs.  Also Henry was the biggest reason the Titans won two games on the road in the playoffs.  He put up a ton of yards, opened up the passing game and kept the opposing defenses on the bench.  I think he deserves tremendous respect and not get nitpicked two games into the 2020 season.  Especially when he was such a major contributor to those wins.

 

 

Henry has been OK.  Same for the run blocking.  That's a drop off from when both were elite from November through the playoffs last year.  Nobody is panicking but acknowledging the obvious is fine.  You don't pay a two down RB a huge contract to average 3.4 YPC.  Without explosive runs and touchdowns, he's a replacement level player.  Everyone, including the Titans and Henry himself, don't expect that type of production to not improve.  Thankfully, if it doesn't the Titans are not fucked contractually like they were with Eddie George or Chris Johnson when similar drop offs happened after they signed monster deals.

 

I also don't think people really care about what's happened in the past.  Yeah he was awesome in the playoffs but that was then.  This is now.  People gave Pineapple Tebow three years because the dumb fuck threw a TD pass to himself in a playoff game.

 

Pretty much everyone on here recognizes that the swap of Conklin for Kelly and the lack of preseason reps are factors in the run game productivity decline and that things will likely improve as the year goes on.  I expect it to.

Edited September 25, 2020 by BudAdams

[bizzyeddie]

41 minutes ago, BudAdams said:

Henry has been OK.  Same for the run blocking.  That's a drop off from when both were elite from November through the playoffs last year.  Nobody is panicking but acknowledging the obvious is fine.  You don't pay a two down RB a huge contract to average 3.4 YPC.  Without explosive runs and touchdowns, he's a replacement level player.  Everyone, including the Titans and Henry himself, don't expect that type of production to not improve.  Thankfully, if it doesn't the Titans are not fucked contractually like they were with Eddie George or Chris Johnson when similar drop offs happened after they signed monster deals.

 

I also don't think people really care about what's happened in the past.  Yeah he was awesome in the playoffs but that was then.  This is now.  People gave Pineapple Tebow three years because the dumb fuck threw a TD pass to himself in a playoff game.

 

Pretty much everyone on here recognizes that the swap of Conklin for Kelly and the lack of preseason reps are factors in the run game productivity decline and that things will likely improve as the year goes on.  I expect it to.

Forget what he's being paid

He earned that money last year as far as I'm concerned.

He's not overpaid and he's a damn good running back.  The Titans aren't getting screwed by his deal.

And he's not a replacement level player....just cause you keep saying it doesn't make it true.

[BudsOilers]

8 minutes ago, bizzyeddie said:

Forget what he's being paid

He earned that money last year as far as I'm concerned.

He's not overpaid and he's a damn good running back.  The Titans aren't getting screwed by his deal.

And he's not a replacement level player....just cause you keep saying it doesn't make it true.

That's not how it works.  What he's paid does matter. 

 

It's two games but GTFO that 3.4 YPC is not replacement level production.  If that does continue, it's a problem and he'll lose carries.

[Number9]

1 hour ago, BudAdams said:

That's not how it works.  What he's paid does matter. 

 

It's two games but GTFO that 3.4 YPC is not replacement level production.  If that does continue, it's a problem and he'll lose carries.

That's why I put that film up.  Show us where he should have gotten more.  If you can't/won't do that, then you are just saying things.  Things that don't match what is happening on the field.

[Mythos27]

3 hours ago, bizzyeddie said:

The evans easily replacing Henry notion is just a few posters..your right about that but the idea that the running game is struggling is the general consensus of the board IMO.

 

But if your gonna say the running game struggles are not even debatable based off the YPC after two games (one game which I agree wasn't very good) then that to me is foolish. 

 

6 games or so from now sure.  It will start to paint a better picture but right now just watching a game and breaking down the run game play by play taking into account the situation and the effect it has on the game gives you a much better sense of how good or bad the run game is 

 

But I get numbers are easier to decipher and inturn harder to debate.

 

The running games hasn't produced the explosive play but that is not so much the intended result as it is with the passing game.  Especially in this offensive scheme.

All I'm saying is that the run game is struggling with efficiency right now. The fact that those issues may work themselves out 6 weeks from now is irrelevant to the fact that today, it's not very efficient which is all I've really said on the matter. I have maintained that despite it's inefficiency the running game is still effective for all of the reasons others have also stated. That said, if the inefficiency worsens, that may start to reduce the efficiency so it's something worth keeping an eye on. There isn't anything controversial about any of that.

[BudsOilers]

4 hours ago, Number9 said:

That's why I put that film up.  Show us where he should have gotten more.  If you can't/won't do that, then you are just saying things.  Things that don't match what is happening on the field.

I missed all of those plays with broken tackles and running for big chunk plays.  This isn't hard.  By NO measure is 3.4 YPC "good".  I'm not running for the razors about it and neither is anyone else.  If you are literally arguing that his production is SOLELY dependent on OL blocking, you do realize that doesn't necessarily reflect glowingly on Henry nor his ROI......

[nine]

First down conversion rate is a critical,  highly underrated metric for assessing RB performance.    It illustrates a player's effectiveness at moving the chains and extending drives...which is one of the most fundamental aspects of the running game.

 

As a baseline, we can assume an effective RB converts a first down or touchdown on roughly 20% of his carries.    25% or higher suggests an extremely effective and consistent runner;  15% or lower usually  indicates a player who's struggling.

 

In 2019, Henry had a 24% conversion rate.  Among RBs with 100+ carries, this ranked #9 in the league.   He was very good at moving the chains.   Much of this was obviously to due strong O-line play....but he also converted a bunch of first downs and touchdowns with yards-after-contact and creating yards on his own.

 

For 2020:   after two games,  Henry is sitting at 16%....which ranks #27 among RBs and is only slightly better than replacement level.   Inconsistent O-line play has obviously contributed greatly to his ineffectiveness....but he's also not generating yards-after-contact like he did last year.   

 

Last year, he converted a lot of first downs & touchdowns by turning 2-yard gains into 5-6 yards.  This year, on plays where the O-line gives him a 2-yard gain....he's getting 2-3 yards.   We're not seeing those extra yards that he routinely created last year......and his conversion rate has dropped as a result.

 

Generally speaking, what separates elite RBs from average RBs is their ability to generate extra yards and make plays on their own.    Any average NFL-caliber RB can get what his O-line gives him;   the elite guys turn it into something even bigger.   They'll turn 2 yards and into 5 yards....or 5 yards into a 10-20 yard chunk play.   They make plays that average players don't make.....which is what makes them elite.

 

Last year, Henry was absolutely elite and routinely made plays that an average RB simply doesn't make;  this year, we've only seen occasional flashes.   Aside from a couple of isolated plays, he's looked quite average.

 

Fortunately, we're only two games into the season....it's still far too early to be truly concerned.   And we definitely saw improvement from week 1 to week 2.    But if he wants to keep being recognized as one of the league's elite runners....he better step up and make more plays on his own.