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Virus in US


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9 minutes ago, patsplat said:

Over 200 people died yesterday in NY.

 

Hospitalizations and ICU admissions tweaked downwards.  One can hope that state wide staying at home is showing its effect.  Have to wait till tomorrow to see if it becomes a trend before really getting my hopes up.

 

Staying at home will no doubt have a positive effect. 

 

The real question - is dummy going to order everyone back to work and destroy the effect?

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This is the damndest thing....  Trump supporters making fun of Biden's mental status.    Seriously.  

MERS killed 866 people worldwide. Again, basic math.   Btw, in an entire year, the flu kills 3,500 - 15,500 in the US. They suspect some cases aren't identified and so they estimate up to 61

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2 hours ago, patsplat said:

Over 200 people died yesterday in NY.

 

Hospitalizations and ICU admissions tweaked downwards.  One can hope that state wide staying at home is showing its effect.  Have to wait till tomorrow to see if it becomes a trend before really getting my hopes up.

 

I was reading an article last night saying they think it will be peaking here in about 17 days and 1500 plus deaths every day. Hard to estimate that far about, but I think it is very possible the way it is spreading.

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2 hours ago, abenjami said:

 

Staying at home will no doubt have a positive effect. 

 

The real question - is dummy going to order everyone back to work and destroy the effect?

 

I heard Trump is now looking at the possibility of mandatory lockdown in a few of the hardest hit cities. This should have already happened, and needs to happen asap.

 

This thing will be out of control in 2 weeks and he is really going to look bad even suggesting it. 

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1 hour ago, patsplat said:

Another example of Trump's egoism killing Americans.  Fuck this traitor.

 

Traitor is a hell of a word for any democrat to throw around... After all it is dem suckers that sold America out to China... You can take your snowflakes and thank the CoC and Donahue for selling manufacturing and jobs out... I wonder who caught the mf'ers pulling the Wall Street 2 step... Traitors!!!

Edited by thor
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20 minutes ago, Former_Fan said:

 

I heard Trump is now looking at the possibility of mandatory lockdown in a few of the hardest hit cities. This should have already happened, and needs to happen asap.

 

This thing will be out of control in 2 weeks and he is really going to look bad even suggesting it. 

 

What's going to look bad is when he's dumping on NY while the rest of the country peaks.

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25 minutes ago, Former_Fan said:

 

I was reading an article last night saying they think it will be peaking here in about 17 days and 1500 plus deaths every day. Hard to estimate that far about, but I think it is very possible the way it is spreading.

 

Yeah I'm not all that optimistic.

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2 hours ago, abenjami said:

 

Staying at home will no doubt have a positive effect. 

 

The real question - is dummy going to order everyone back to work and destroy the effect?

 

He can't really order people back to work though.

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21 hours ago, Denali said:

Behind the numbers:

 

OK, I have said this is all bullshit, but in looking at the daily numbers in the U.S. over the past 5 days (website https://infection2020.com/),  an extremely disturbing trend is emerging that is making me question myself.

 

Tracking the number of cases is useless in the face of limited testing, because it doesn't represent any sort of true reality.  As more people are tested, that number will climb, and is heavily impacted by test availability.  As long as testing is limited, it is not a good metric.

 

So that leaves us with the fatality rate.  The dead are dead, regardless of how many people are tested.  At this point it is the only solid metric that we have.

 

So, how has the death rate in the U.S. been for the past 5 days?  Well, it has held steady at around a 25% increase per 24 hour period.  If that doesn't sound like a lot, guess again.  That is an exponential growth pattern.  Not the classic power function 100% growth pattern that they show in the movies, but significant and disturbing nonetheless.  (And even worse, in the past 24 hours, the number of fatalities has increased by 32 % as opposed to around 25%).

 

Ignoring the past 24 hour rate of 32%, and assuming a steady 25% increase per day, and starting right now with the current number of dead at 1609, the formula for the death rate is as follows (I had to research how to come up with the formula):

 

image.png.c91bef0ef0a6d1c1747b17499a1689b0.png

 

So how bad is a 25% increase per day?

 

Well, using the formula above, take a look at these numbers (I rounded off the values for clarity):

 

After 2 weeks:       36K total dead

After 1 month:       1.3 million total dead

After 2 months:     1 billion total dead

 

Wow.  I don't know what to make of this.

 

 

 

 

 

Number coming out today is so far matching closely with this formula - last I looked, 1997 total dead and counting.

 

Here's a table of the predicted total number of deaths per day to give an idea as to whether it is getting better or worse than the predictions above:

 

This is for the next two weeks, starting from yesterday:

 

image.png.e292ed95b3a7684a841f1d9aad63cc03.png

 

I hope it ends up being a lot less than what this shows.  It gets way way uglier beyond two weeks.

 

Edited by Denali
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