Popular Post BTiger3733 Posted February 11, 2020 Popular Post Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 (edited) Long time lurker, first time poster. Season ticket holder. Draft lover. These are my initial thoughts because my narcissism thinks you might care about all of the research I do in my free time. My overall draft opinion - if someone falls to 29 who shouldn't be there, take him. If not, trade back into the early 2nd and pick up a late 3rd or early 4th. The more picks the better with JRob. Below are some of our likely needs at draft time (FA dependent of course) and the guys that will be within reach at those positions. I put the players into categories based on how their skillset fits with our needs and their value to us based on how high they would have to be drafted (i.e. we shouldn't draft a backup RB in round 1). This is by no means an exhaustive list, just the guys I've been looking at so far. I'm assuming we resign Henry, Conklin, Tannehill, and 50/50 on Ryan. Obviously our draft significantly changes if one of those doesn't happen. Each player has a hyperlink to a highlight video so please enjoy. **2/18 ADDITION - QUARTERBACKS** EDGE DEFENDER Thoughts: We all know this is where we need the most immediate help. We just need a good football player here. Keep in mind we are getting D'Andre Walker back next season. That could mean nothing but at the very least he's another body to have. I am definitely against signing Clowney for $20 mil/yr but it wouldn't be a franchise killer by any means if we did. Like: Yetur Gross Matos - Great athlete. High motor. Good against the run and pass. Clearly loves playing football. However, he was never quite as dominant as he should have been. Round 1 AJ Epenesa - Massive human, well rounded. Good at everything, particularly good at defending the run. Wasn't asked to purely pass rush often in their scheme. Doubt he falls to us. Round 1 Curtis Weaver - Absoutely dominant at Boise St. Doesn't look the part but plays extremely fluid and natural. Great against the pass and the run. Reminds me of Harold Landry with slighly less speed but more pass rushing moves and play strength. Round 1/2 Zack Baun - High motor, well coached, productive. More of an edge rusher who can play in space than an edge rusher who can move inside. I think he's a great fit. Round 1/2 Kind of Like: Julian Okwara - Elite athlete, fast twitch with good size. Inconsistent production. By no means is he an edge setter. Round 1/2 Don't Like: K'Lavon Chaisson - Absurdly good athlete. Incredible highlight plays. However, I think he gets drafted much higher than he should. He never dominated and was outplayed by average OTs. I could be really wrong about this guy but his production was awful considering how much opposing teams were in obvious passing situations against LSU this season. Terrell Lewis - Everything the same as K'Lavon but worse. And I'm an Alabama fan. CORNERBACK Thoughts: We need more CB talent whether we resign Logan Ryan or not. Resigning him just means we don't specifically need a high level slot corner immediately. But with the way the NFL has shifted you can never have enough secondary talent. I know Logan is very popular here (I like him too) but if we're being honest he got torched last season quite a bit. He made up for it as our best defensive playmaker but he gave up a ton of yards. Adoree was a pleasant surprise. Butler is somehow good and bad at the same time. I'm excited to see how Hooker develops but he's a mystery at this point in terms of what role he'll play. Thankfully this is a pretty deep CB class. It's hard to judge CB's off of stats and highlight videos because their highlights are when QBs don't throw their way. So here's some of the top corners with small write ups and where they might be available (very combine dependent) CJ Henderson - Doubt he falls to us but it's possible if teams fall in love with other players. He has all of the tools. Really great in man coverage. Round 1 Kristian Fulton - Doubt he falls to us but he could run slow at the combine which might drop him. True shutdown corner in man to man. Round 1 Trevon Diggs - Converted WR. Long, fast, very good ball skills. Great playmaker. Really high ceiling. Great in press coverage but not the quickest guy. Probably more of a zone guy. Recovers well due to his length. Round 1/2 Jeff Gladney - Great man cover guy. Fast, good technique, smart. He's undersized and a 5th year senior. Round 1/2 Damon Arnette - Played across from Okudah so he was tested often and responded well. Firey, quick, natural athlete. Great reaction time. Nothing truly elite about him, he's just a good player across the board. Would be a great value pick if he falls due to CB depth. Round 2/3 Cameron Dantzler - Lanky outside corner. Really skinny but great length and good ball skills. Truly a shutdown corner the past two seasons. The only CB to not get torched by LSU this season. Round 2/3 Bryce Hall - Would've been a first round pick last year but returned to school and unfortunately had a season ending ankle injury. The injury will drop him in the draft which leaves a good opportunity for someone to get a great talent. More of a pure zone guy so I don't know if he fits with us but he's really good. Round 2/3 Jaylon Johnson - Very physical and aggressive. Great in press. Lots of swagger. Good instincts and ball skills. Not the fastest and has tight hips. Great strengths and fairly big potential weaknesses so he needs to be put in the right scheme. His 40 time will be important. Could be round 1 or 2/3 depending on his 40 and shuttle. 3RD DOWN RB/ SCAT BACK/ BACKUP RB/ WHATEVER YOU WANT TO CALL IT Thoughts: RB is one of the most replaceable and scheme dependent positions in the league. I think it would be really dumb to spend a high draft pick on a backup RB. However, we don't have many holes to plug so it makes sense in our situation to be looking for a good fit. By good fit I mean a shifty RB with above average pass catching, route running, and pass protection skills. Basically what Dion Lewis was supposed to be. Additionally, it would be nice to have a RB that disguises our intentions better than, "Dion Lewis is in the game, drop 8 in coverage." Like: Clyde Edwards-Helaire - The best fit by far of the top guys. Versatile, quick, very good hands, good route runner, willingly blocks. Caught 55 passes and ran for 1400 yards. Late 2nd-Early 4th Laviska Shenault - This is a wild card that could be interesting. Very athletic, big WR who also played a decent amount of RB. Played on a bad team with a bad quarterback and was banged up all year but he could be a star if he's with a creative OC. Says his favorite route is the direct snap. If he falls to us at 29 it's something to think about. Obviously he would primarily be a WR. We'd have to add a layer to the offense similar to what KC does with Tyreek Hill in terms of never knowing where he's going to be or how they're going to use him. Round 1 Zack Moss - Like him a lot as a RB, don't love him as a fit for us but he's just a really good overall RB. Round 3 Eno Benjamin - Traditional scat back. Shifty, fast, great in space. Round 4/5 Kind of Like: Cam Akers - Good at everything. Probably could be a feature RB for a team. Played behind a really bad offensive line and boring offensive scheme but still produced. Doesn't really have any weaknesses other than struggling with drops a bit. He's a 3-down RB but not a 3rd down RB if that makes sense. Round 3/4 Don't Like: D'Andre Swift - Seems like a good college RB that played behind a great line. I think he'll contribute to an NFL roster but not at the value where he will be drafted. JK Dobbins - Like him, don't love him as a fit for what we need or where we would have to draft him. DEEP THREAT WR Thoughts - The only missing piece to our receiving group. Whether we want to admit it or not, Corey is merely a possession receiver. Obviously Tajae and Humphries are as well. So if we draft a receiver it needs to be someone who's first descriptor is, "explosive." Someone who can create separation deep hopefully. However, I think this is one of the lesser needs so I don't know how much sense it makes to draft one early but you never know who might fall in your lap. It might make more sense to sign Robby Anderson if we have the cap space. Like: Henry Ruggs - He has foot speed and football speed. Great route running and body control. Soft hands. He's not John Ross. Round 1 Jalen Reagor - Very explosive and has a decent ability to high point a football in traffic. Round 1/2 Kind of Like: Brandon Aiyuk - Played behind N'Keal Harry last season and then dominated on his own this year. Had almost half of his team's receiving yards and touchdowns. Instinctive, explosive, natural athlete. Good swagger. Not as much of a deep threat right now as he is an explosive YAC guy. Pretty sure he led the country in YAC at 6'1" 205. Round 2/3 Denzel Mims - It's hard to judge Baylor WRs because they don't run a full route tree. But apparently Mims tore up the Senior Bowl and was uncoverable all week in 1 on 1's. Big, fast, really good body control. Not necessarily a "deep threat" but he's not not a deep threat. Round 2/3 QUARTERBACK Thoughts - I think it's obvious we should franchise Tannehill. We don't have enough data on him to know if last year was a fluke or not. There's very little downside to franchising him. We need to win now and he's our only real option. However, I think we should seriously consider drafting a QB high in 2020. For two reasons: 1) He can sit for a year to develop and 2) Young QBs are the only players that hold good value from one year to the next regardless of their play. They are very low risk investments in that way. Garoppolo was drafted at 62 and then traded for 43 three seasons later after only starting 2 games. Josh Rosen literally had one of the worst QB seasons of all time and was immediately traded for a 2nd round pick. Deshone Kizer was drafted at 52, led the league in INTs with a QBR of 29, and was then traded for a starting SS. The Jags could probably trade Minshew right now for a high 2nd after drafting him in the 6th last year. So if we draft a talented QB in 2020 he could be our starter in 2021 or we could trade him for a high pick in 2021, depending on how Tannehill plays. With that in mind it makes sense to potentially go after Jordan Love. He's really the only good option for that plan. Maybe Eason if he falls. Like: Jordan Love - I linked the tape from his worst game (LSU). 3 INTS and only 150 yards. I think it's an important tape because it shows why people are torn on him. You can clearly see how much talent he has. His arm strength, quick release, size, mobility, and touch are all very apparent. But then he makes a few throws that are head scratching and alarming. Note that most of those bad throws are late in the game when they are down by 30. Also, note how awful his O-line is. And lastly, note how his receivers can get zero separation and have terrible hands. The general consensus is that he has the tools to be an NFL MVP but he's raw. So if he sits for a year his trade value might actually be higher. Or if he develops enough throughout the season that the staff sees him as the starter, that's even better. I really doubt he'll be available at 29 though. Round 1. Here's a good highlight video Cole McDonald - He won't have near the value of Love but he won't be drafted nearly as high. He's big, fast, great arm, and extremely productive. Can be very accurate but struggles with decision making. His system is hard to evaluate. Hawaii plays the Run 'n Gun so it's 100% shotgun, often with no RB, and they're trying to zip it around as fast as possible. That leads to a lot of yards and TDs but also a higher number of WTF plays. He's tough and seems like he loves playing football. Here's a good article with videos that analyzes his skill set. Round 5-6. Nate Stanley - Played in a pro style offense at Iowa and was pretty successful. Three year starter with decent numbers. Not really a creator or an improvisor. Definitely not a runner. Has the enough size and arm strength to make it. A solid backup QB option. Round 6-UDFA. Anthony Gordon - "the next Gardner Minshew" but he's actually a pretty different player. He has more talent than Minshew but he's not as polished. Gordon isn't very good with progressions right now. He also really struggles when he's pressured. But he has fantastic speed of release and accuracy underneath. Higher ceiling than Minshew with a lower floor. I think teams might draft him a round higher than normal only because of Minshew's success. Round 5-6 Kind of Like: James Morgan - Another late round backup QB option. He has the size and arm. Takes care of the ball very well. Only three 12 interceptions in the past two seasons combined. He never really lit it up though. Kind of a funky release. Did well at the East/West Shrine Bowl. Round 6-UDFA Jacob Eason - Similar to Jordan Love, he has the tools and the potential. He's a worse QB with worse upside though. But in the same vein as Love, with some development he could have a higher value. He should've stayed in school another year. He'll probably be drafted too high. Reminds me of Ryan Mallett. Round 3 Don't Like: Jake Fromm - This guy is wildy average. A college game manager QB is never going to turn into anything more at the NFL level. Literally his ceiling is game manager. I don't understand why people are considering taking him before Round 3. He's going to be a fantastic backup and locker room guy though. Jalen Hurts - Good athlete, great kid, smart, pretty good mechanics. He really struggles with reading the field. At Alabama his progression seemed like, "Stare at option 1, if he's covered.. scramble." I think things got a little better at OU because of the system but he had that same knock on him during the Senior Bowl and didn't seem to convince anyone that he's improved. Some people see him in a Taysom Hill type of role because of his skillset and intelligence. He could be an interesting backup QB/gadget player. I wouldn't put much stock in that though. I think we'd have to get a separate backup QB along with him. And OT would be a huge need if we don't bring Conklin back. Anyways, I know it's early in the process but I figured you guys might enjoy. Edited February 19, 2020 by BTiger3733 BudsOilers, PetroleroTitanico, Bink, and 14 others 9 8 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post headhunter Posted February 11, 2020 Popular Post Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 Youve already overtaken kyles spot as the draft guru ctm, DCTitan, BudsOilers, and 9 others 4 7 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Callidus Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 12 hours ago, headhunter said: Youve already overtaken kyles spot as the draft guru I was gona post now we have 2 kyles. Hopefully this won dosn't switch teams. Lol Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Callidus Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 If we could land Curtis Weaver in round 1 a cb in 2 and moss in 3I would be ecstatic. This assuming we sign tanny, henry and conk. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
BudsOilers Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 This is really good. It just provides info and doesn't include stupid mock offseasons full of BS contract numbers, lack of knowledge about the cap or free agency, etc. headhunter, SleepingTitan, and ctm 3 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
OilerTitanHybrid Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 Because there's a chance that the OP could be a Kyle sock puppet account, I'll need to ask a couple questions. 1. Are you also a nurse? 2. If so, have you ever been fired for having sex with another nurse? We await your response! BudsOilers, IsntLifeFunny, SleepingTitan, and 1 other 1 3 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleepingTitan Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 Def a pinnable post. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRT Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 19 minutes ago, OilerTitanHybrid said: Because there's a chance that the OP could be a Kyle sock puppet account, I'll need to ask a couple questions. No mock or dollars paid to FA means it is pretty safe this is not Kyle. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
rns90 Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 The writing is better than Kyle’s usual stuff. Also, Moss and Weaver are lower on NFL draft boards (supposedly). And Vrabel talked with Lewis at the Senior Bowl (rumor). Good stuff overall. Can’t wait for the OT portion. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
rns90 Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 If they have to use the franchise tag on Henry or Tannehill, Conklin is gone. The only way we keep Conklin is with the franchise tag, IMO. Too many teams need an OT and are flush with cap space to overpay him. titanskick8851, and OILERMAN 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
h4t Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 Thanks for the write up. Would like to see you add backup, developmental QB to your post, and would like to see the guys in all categories listed that you don't think we have a chance at, just in case we trade up. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTiger3733 Posted February 12, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 12, 2020 (edited) 17 hours ago, Soxcat said: These analysis are ok but they don't commit to anything. List 30 guys you wouldn't mind having in the first 3 rounds.... ok If AJ Epenesa gets anywhere close to our pick at #29 I'm trading up to get him. Solid strong side guy who can play in a 4 or 3 man front. Rather have him on a rookie deal than Clowney. Keep the $20 + mil to sign a few FAs if we need to. I'd also try and keep Conklin, Henry and Tannehill and try to get the best quality defensive players we can. It's shortsighted to say, "we should take AJ Epenesa in round 1." We don't know A) if he'll be available, B) who else will be available, C) how players will look at the combine and pro days, D) who we are resigning in FA, and E) who we sign away from other teams in FA. That's too many variables that could change who we pick. Having a list of players in our range that fit our needs is much more useful right now. Edited February 12, 2020 by BTiger3733 Callidus 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTiger3733 Posted February 12, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 12, 2020 2 hours ago, Soxcat said: Just committing to a player rather than listing 10 guys we might get at #29 which amounts to nothing. And for the same reasons you just mentioned a list is almost worthless. So how did you decide on AJ Epenesa? You did research on him and no one else? Or did you look through multiple players at our positions of need and where they might be drafted. And then of those players you decided you like AJ the best for us. Because that's the same thing as my post but you're decided who you want 10 weeks too early. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Callidus Posted February 12, 2020 Report Share Posted February 12, 2020 48 minutes ago, BTiger3733 said: So how did you decide on AJ Epenesa? You did research on him and no one else? Or did you look through multiple players at our positions of need and where they might be drafted. And then of those players you decided you like AJ the best for us. Because that's the same thing as my post but you're decided who you want 10 weeks too early. I find it cute you think you can have a logical conversation with soxcat. JMoney420, and BTiger3733 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
TerryBoats Posted February 12, 2020 Report Share Posted February 12, 2020 21 hours ago, OilerTitanHybrid said: Because there's a chance that the OP could be a Kyle sock puppet account, I'll need to ask a couple questions. 1. Are you also a nurse? 2. If so, have you ever been fired for having sex with another nurse? We await your response! Seriously, that's a fireable offense? And he wasn't their supervisor or anything? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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