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BudAdams

Revisiting the Regular Season Matchup with KC

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This was another example of why yardage isn't the end all be all.  KC had 530 yards of offense against the Titans.  Mahomes passed for 446.  KC was 7/14 on 3rd downs whereas the Titans were only 2/8.  KC ran 78 plays and controlled the clock (37:52) whereas Tennessee only ran 49 plays.  In fairness, Evans had a fumble return TD, Henry had a 68 yard TD run on 2nd down, and the Titans had a 4 play drive where Raymond caught a 52 yard bomb.

 

Still, the Titans won 35-32.....Why?:

 

  • The Titans won the explosive play battle (11 to 9)
  • The Titans were 2/2 in the red zone whereas KC was 2/3.
  • The Titans were even in TO's but they scored 7 off of theirs while holding KC to 3 on the Tannehill fumble)
  • Henry ran for 182 yards and 2 TD's on 23 carries. 
  • Tannehill had a 133 passer rating on 19 pass attempts (9.5 YPA) with 2 TD's passing and 3 carries for 37 yards.  The last drive was masterful, culminated by the pass to Humphries with 23 seconds left.
  • Evans had the aforementioned 54 yard fumble return TD
  • The special teams blocked the tying FG attempt plus KC muffed another FG snap that would have put them up 8.

 

In an ideal world, the Titans replicate the offensive game plan - it's who they are - running it and using PA to hit explosive plays.  KC never really stopped Henry.  They have to improve the 3rd down conversion rate to extend drives and minimize the snaps that KC has.  It goes without saying that winning the explosive play battle as well as Red Zone also are critical. 

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5 minutes ago, Soxcat said:

Hopefully we can slow them down some on offense.

 

I think it will be a similar mindset to the Ravens as you know they are going to get yards and points.  In game 1, they allowed 7 scores on 12 drives but only 3 were touchdowns.  Add in that the defense actually scored a TD so it was net 25 points. 

 

Meanwhile, the Titans scored 4 TD's on 10 drives despite only being 2/8 on 3rd down

 

 

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32 minutes ago, BudAdams said:

Still, the Titans won 35-32.....Why?:

 

  • The Titans won the explosive play battle (11 to 9)
  • The Titans were 2/2 in the red zone whereas KC was 2/3.
  • The Titans were even in TO's but they scored 7 off of theirs while holding KC to 3 on the Tannehill fumble)
  • Henry ran for 182 yards and 2 TD's on 23 carries. 
  • Tannehill had a 133 passer rating on 19 pass attempts (9.5 YPA) with 2 TD's passing and 3 carries for 37 yards.  The last drive was masterful, culminated by the pass to Humphries with 23 seconds left.
  • Evans had the aforementioned 54 yard fumble return TD
  • The special teams blocked the tying FG attempt plus KC muffed another FG snap that would have put them up 8.

 

2 biggest events, imo, from an otherwise even contest.  Great game plan and a great game for the Titans that put them on the trajectory for the winner-take-all rematch.

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They'll obviously come out throwing, but I think they'll target Kelce as a mismatch against our LBers.  It'll be important to get help from the safeties against him, and it might actually allow us a chance at some turnovers if Simmons, Casey, and Landry can pressure Mahommes. 

 

On offense we need to run the ball like the first game, but I suspect they'll load the box and make us go through the air to beat them.  We should still be successful on the ground, but we will need Brown and Davis to be more involved.

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1 minute ago, Implicit said:

Was this the game where they got the blocked FG returned for TD?  If so, we can't count on that happening again.

 

No that was at Indy. 

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Titans also got down early and had a sack/fumble.

 

It does worry me they got to Tannehill 4 times in that game though. Luckily, our OL is playing better now and we aren't even having to rely on the pass as much with how Henry is running.

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33 minutes ago, BudAdams said:

KC is 29th in rushing yards/attempt and 26th in rushing yards allowed.  I like the Titans chances to run it.

 

As we can attest, full season stats can be misleading. Do you know how they were trending against the run to close out the season?

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1 minute ago, Jonboy said:

Titans also got down early and had a sack/fumble.

 

It does worry me they got to Tannehill 4 times in that game though. Luckily, our OL is playing better now and we aren't even having to rely on the pass as much with how Henry is running.

 

In that game, we were pretty balanced but only had 49 plays.  Henry had 23 carries and they had 19 pass attempts, the 4 sacks, and I believe the 2 of the 3 runs by RT were scrambles.

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4 minutes ago, BudAdams said:

 

In that game, we were pretty balanced but only had 49 plays.  Henry had 23 carries and they had 19 pass attempts, the 4 sacks, and I believe the 2 of the 3 runs by RT were scrambles.

 

Hmm. If they had 4 sacks and he had to scramble twice, clearly they were doing something to throw off our passing game and/or guys weren't getting open. 

 

Would be nice to have Humphries back so we'd have all our top WRs.

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3 minutes ago, begooode said:

 

As we can attest, full season stats can be misleading. Do you know how they were trending against the run to close out the season?

 

They were much better down the stretch but they had 3 blowout wins in the stretch versus Oakland, Denver, and Chicago,  In addition, they played the Chargers twice and they threw it 52 and 46 times despite relatively close games....The other game was at NE and the Patriots threw it 40 times and ran it 22 times.

 

They have not played a team that is run oriented since the first matchup with the Titans. 

 

 

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