patsplat

How much do we miss LaFleur?

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One of the befuddling transformations this year has been Vrabel's decline from saavy game manager to meat headed idiot.

 

Simplest answer in my book - LaFleur was a positive influence on the teams decision making.  And now that he's gone we're getting a better picture of Vrabel's true abilities.

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The analytics actually support Vrabel’s decision making this year minus the field goal decision in the Buffalo game. 

 

I don’t agree with some them personally, but its not as cut and dry as it has seemed. 

 

The biggest issue with the field goal fake was the play used moreso than the decision itself. And it was actually Kern’s decision based on the LB read and he made the wrong decision. 

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Hard 2 say, this years o calls have been all over the place. We come out in tight sets and cant do shit then we go 3-4 wide and we can move it.

 

LaFleur with mary this year would be the same as last year. LaFleur with tanny would be hard 2 figure out.

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2 hours ago, tgo said:

The analytics actually support Vrabel’s decision making this year minus the field goal decision in the Buffalo game. 

 

I don’t agree with some them personally, but its not as cut and dry as it has seemed. 

 

The biggest issue with the field goal fake was the play used moreso than the decision itself. And it was actually Kern’s decision based on the LB read and he made the wrong decision. 

 

The analytics were absolutely not in favor of the fake FG that almost got Kern murdered.

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47 minutes ago, Tnasty said:

This board was calling for his head last year and now we want to crown him?

 

 

giphy.gif

No1 is saying he would be great but its hard 2 judge with mariota in mind.

 

Btw you stole  my go 2 gif/clip 😞

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2 minutes ago, cenj said:

 

The analytics were absolutely not in favor of the fake FG that almost got Kern murdered.

 

Well - not the play we ran especially. But going for it was the right decision according to the numbers. 
 

"That’s according to EdjSports, a Kentucky-based data analytics firm that is hired on a consulting basis by NFL teams to assist coaches in making in-game decisions like these. EdjSports’ computer model includes all factors to determine a coach’s best decision at any time – run, pass, punt, going for it on fourth down or not – based on a percentage for how it impacts the team’s chances to win that game.

 

Whether Vrabel knew it or not, EdjSports’ numbers have largely been on his side.

 

Of the five fourth-down decisions listed above, four of them — including the fake field goal — didn’t just help the Titans’ win chance. In EdjSports’ estimation, those four decisions were among the five best in-game decisions the 2019 Titans have made.

 

Sunday’s fake was more complicated. While the decision to go for it on fourth-and-2 against Tampa Bay did increase the Titans’ win chance by 1.3% (from 81.1% to 82.4%), that doesn’t mean they went about it the best way.

(Spoiler: They didn’t. They were lucky, in fact, that the play wasn’t called a fumble, which could have been a disaster, and even luckier that Kern wasn’t hurt, which would have been a larger disaster.)

 

“Fakes sometimes introduce the element of surprise, but we typically favor running a transparent play with your offense for a couple reasons,” said EdjSports in a statement provided to The Tennessean. “First, you’re putting the ball in the hands of someone who doesn’t usually handle the ball, and in this scenario, it’s the punter. Second, you’re adding distance to the requisite yardage. Instead of throwing the ball or handing off to a running back 4-5 yards behind the line of scrimmage, you’re having the holder run from 8 yards back.”

 

 

https://www.tennessean.com/story/sports/nfl/titans/2019/10/28/mike-vrabel-catching-heat-titans-fourth-down-failures/2469791001/

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On the bright side, Vrabel will never run that  particular FG fake play again I bet. And when he did run it, it didn't cost us the game or result in a turnover - miraculously. 

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5 minutes ago, cenj said:

 

The analytics were absolutely not in favor of the fake FG that almost got Kern murdered.

I agree but also analytics don't really come into play for calls like that.

Analytics work in baseball...you do what they say and if you lose a game because of it oh well we can go out and win it tomorrow night.  You play a shitload of games so they pan out in the end.

I think in the NFL with a 16 game season you have to use analytics to shape your approach to offense and defense but it's done between games and not necessarily during games.

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56 minutes ago, patsplat said:

The idiocy on that drive wasn't just the fake FG but also every play called leading up to that point.

 

Well if we were in field goal range, I'm not sure how all the play calls in the drive were pure idiocy....

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2 hours ago, Tnasty said:

This board was calling for his head last year and now we want to crown him?

 

 

giphy.gif

Bingo!  Vrabel is learning. We will be stupid to let him take this training to say. Pittsburgh 

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