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abenjami

Who to draft at #4 in a 2 QB league?

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22 minutes ago, JakePA_Titan said:

This league is 4 for PTD and -1 for INT. Most everything else in scoring is standard except for bonus points on 500+ yards passing, 250+ receiving, and 200+ rushing. Also bonus points for 40+ yard TDs running and WR. 

 

More bonus point chances for RBs and WRs and RBs are thin after the top 10 or so. 

 

But, going off your numbers let's say he does regress to that 370 range of fantasy points. 

 

Matt Ryan and Big Ben both put up around 360 (in this leagues format) last year and are going in round 8+ if not later. Why waste a 4th overall on a player when I can get a guy much later who is more likely to be closer in production? Because its unlikely to get a RB in rounds 6+ that will come close to putting up the numbers one of those RBs will at 4th overall. 

Even with Luck retiring (he wasnt a sure thing to stay healthy anyway) the QB position is pretty damn deep this year.

 

Just like my chances better of grabbing what should be a top 5ish back, in a full ppr league, because I could still snag two top 15 QBs (in a league where starters go 24 deep) somewhere in rounds 4-7.

 

It's nothing against Mahomes as much as just not liking the strategy of going QB early.

 

And idk, maybe the 4 for PTD might change your mind a bit if he indeed regresses to the numbers you chose to use. 

I think it's a fair strategy to ignore Mahomes in 2QB leagues, or build around him. Because these leagues push the depth of the position, you want an option with the lowest floor possible. Other elite QBs have injury history--that's survivable with QB depth in 1 QB leagues, not in 2. 

 

That said, with the scoring bonuses you mention I probably don't take him early if it means passing on someone like Tyreke Hill. 

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6 hours ago, JakePA_Titan said:

This league is 4 for PTD and -1 for INT. Most everything else in scoring is standard except for bonus points on 500+ yards passing, 250+ receiving, and 200+ rushing. Also bonus points for 40+ yard TDs running and WR.

4 touchdown leagues are different. I wouldn't touch any QB in the first round of a draft with that kind of scoring, not even Mahomes. Basically, this is the kind of scoring set up I'm talking about:

 

1 point for every 10 Passing Completions (0.1 per)

1 point for every 25 Passing Yards (0.04 per)

1 extra point when total Passing Yards is between 200 and 299 (inclusive)

2 extra points when total Passing Yards is between 300 and 399 (inclusive)

3 extra points when total Passing Yards is between 400 and 499 (inclusive)

4 extra points when total Passing Yards is between 500 and 599 (inclusive)

5 extra points when total Passing Yards is greater than or equal to 600

6 points for every Passing TD

2 points for every 2 Pt Conversion Passing

-2 points for every Interception

-4 points for every Interception For TD

 

In this set up last year Mahomes scored 583 points for me. In the Rams game he had a pick 6 and threw 3 INTs altogether, which attributed to negative 10 points. He also had a fumble that he lost, which took off another 4 points. He still put up 51 fantasy points in that game.

 

Quote

But, going off your numbers let's say he does regress to that 370 range of fantasy points. 

 

Matt Ryan and Big Ben both put up around 360 (in this leagues format) last year and are going in round 8+ if not later. Why waste a 4th overall on a player when I can get a guy much later who is more likely to be closer in production? Because its unlikely to get a RB in rounds 6+ that will come close to putting up the numbers one of those RBs will at 4th overall. 

 

It's nothing against Mahomes as much as just not liking the strategy of going QB early.

Yeah... when you lay things out with other QBs, if he did regress to around the 370 mark it would be disappointing. But it does depend on the league you're in. A lot of leagues handicap QBs with 4 point touchdowns, which I hate because it lessens the most important position, both in reality and in fantsy. If you're in such a league it is always better to wait on a QB.

 

I don't think Mahomes will hit 50 touchdowns, but I also don't think he's going to regress that much either. He still has a ton of weapons at his disposal and the league is designed for QBs like him. 50 touchdown passes at one time were considered one of those mountain peak achievements, and for pretty much all QBs it still is. But Mahomes has the kind of skillset to hit it comparatively often. He may be the kind of QB you make an exception for, even in leagues that handicap QBs.

 

Every generation has the one guy who is a generational talent. Mahomes looks like he's That Guy for this era of the NFL.

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On 8/27/2019 at 6:30 PM, JakePA_Titan said:

 

@abenjami how many QBs were taken by your second pick? Assuming not many since you got Baker. 

I actually took Baker in the 3rd round.

 

Mahomes and Watson went in round 1.

 

Rodgers and Wentz went in round 2.

 

Ryan went earlier in round 3 and then I took Baker as the 6th QB taken.

 

After that there was a run on QB's and 7 more went before I picked again.

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