TheBukafax

It really is the perfect year to need a QB

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I don't know if it's ever a perfect year to need a QB.  Last time we needed one we had the #2 pick and there were two Heisman winning QB available.  Neither one of them got a second deal after four years.

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1 hour ago, Titans279 said:

It's really impossible to know if it's a good year or not.

 

People talked about Mariota/Winston as a good year for a long time and look at them now. Then Goff/Wentz were less hyped and so far they're the clear winners head-to-head.

 

The problem is there's a good chance even your top pick QB is a bust.

 

1999 - 2014 the bust rate for QBs drafted:

Top 10: 15/25

Top 5: 10/20

Top 2: 5/13

Top 1: 4/11

 

If you add 2015 QBs Mariota/Winston as busts obviously it changes to 5/12 and 6/14. Given the small sample size it's not that much different from a coin flip.

That’s why I feel it’s a good year. Volume. There is a volume of passers who could make it.

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19 minutes ago, Number9 said:

I don't know if it's ever a perfect year to need a QB.  Last time we needed one we had the #2 pick and there were two Heisman winning QB available.  Neither one of them got a second deal after four years.

It’s just because the pool to pick is larger. 

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2 hours ago, Titans279 said:

It's really impossible to know if it's a good year or not.

 

People talked about Mariota/Winston as a good year for a long time and look at them now. Then Goff/Wentz were less hyped and so far they're the clear winners head-to-head.

 

The problem is there's a good chance even your top pick QB is a bust.

 

1999 - 2014 the bust rate for QBs drafted:

Top 10: 15/25

Top 5: 10/20

Top 2: 5/13

Top 1: 4/11

 

If you add 2015 QBs Mariota/Winston as busts obviously it changes to 5/12 and 6/14. Given the small sample size it's not that much different from a coin flip.

Almost 2:1 odds that a QB will be a bust taken that high. That's why you have to take a shot at mid round developmental prospect every couple of years.

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5 minutes ago, freakingeek said:

Almost 2:1 odds that a QB will be a bust taken that high. That's why you have to take a shot at mid round developmental prospect every couple of years.

Yeah, but I would guess the percentage of mid rounder QBs who end up good is in the single digits despite there being some high profile successes. 

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Just now, Titans279 said:

Yeah, but I would guess the percentage of mid rounder QBs who end up good is in the single digits despite there being some high profile successes. 

I saw a study where it's pretty low.  Think its the same as late round/udfa qbs.  Generally the mid round qb's don't develop into starters.

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4 minutes ago, Titans279 said:

Yeah, but I would guess the percentage of mid rounder QBs who end up good is in the single digits despite there being some high profile successes. 

Drafting any QB is just a huge roll of the dice, period. There's no way to predict how these guys will adapt to the NFL. And then you have a case like Luck who has the skills but can't stay healthy. The odds of drafting a Tom Brady in the later rounds are astronomical.

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2 hours ago, Titans279 said:

It's really impossible to know if it's a good year or not.

 

People talked about Mariota/Winston as a good year for a long time and look at them now. Then Goff/Wentz were less hyped and so far they're the clear winners head-to-head.

 

The problem is there's a good chance even your top pick QB is a bust.

 

1999 - 2014 the bust rate for QBs drafted:

Top 10: 15/25

Top 5: 10/20

Top 2: 5/13

Top 1: 4/11

 

If you add 2015 QBs Mariota/Winston as busts obviously it changes to 5/12 and 6/14. Given the small sample size it's not that much different from a coin flip.

Ok but what's the bust rate for QB's drafted 11-25?  Because that's likely where we will pick...

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11 minutes ago, abenjami said:

Ok but what's the bust rate for QB's drafted 11-25?  Because that's likely where we will pick...

I think it's 5/17.  Hits (some of this is subjective):  Aaron Rodgers, Jay Cutler, Ben Roehtlisberger, Chad Pennington and  Joe Flacco.

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30 minutes ago, abenjami said:

Ok but what's the bust rate for QB's drafted 11-25?  Because that's likely where we will pick...

11-25 is terrible. 
 

I would count 15/18 as busts lol. 
 

Busts (imo): Cade McNown, Dante Culpepper, Chad Pennington, Rex Grossman, JP Losman, Kyle Boller, Jason Campbell, Jay Cutler, Brady Quinn, Josh Freeman, Tim Tebow, Christian Ponder, EJ Manuel, Brandon Weedon, Johnny Manziel, 

 

Hits: Roethlisberger, Rodgers, Flacco

 

Pennington had potential but injuries make him a bust.
 

Cutler is probably divisive but his original team shipped him off, his career record was 74-79 and only made the playoffs once. 

Even Culpepper had 5 years as a starter and some real high points (All Pro twice) but he couldn’t sustain it long enough. 

 

There will always be edge cases. 

 

Watson and Haskins are still unknown. I wouldn’t bet on Haskins though and I havebeen skeptical of Watson as a passer. 

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Jacoby Brissett is def someone I would watch. The Colts are married to Luck and I doubt they'd franchise him. 

 

He's a vet and will only be 27.

 

Reportedly in league circles he's thought well of 

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1 minute ago, OILERMAN said:

Jacoby Brissett is def someone I would watch. The Colts are married to Luck and I doubt they'd franchise him. 

 

He's a vet and will only be 27.

 

Reportedly in league circles he's thought well of 

You savaged him in 2017.

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13 minutes ago, japan said:

You savaged him in 2017.

If he plays poorly I will again, that's why I said he's someone to "watch". 

 

His 2017 season, although pretty spare would be one of MM's better seasons!

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