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Pass blocking matters more than pass rushing, and we can prove it


Huston

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Long read but good.

 

You're the general manager of an NFL franchise and have been presented with a choice. You can have the best pass-blocking offensive line in the league, or the best pass-rushing defensive line. What would you choose?

Conventional wisdom would probably make you lean toward the pass-rushers. When it comes to the trenches, that's where the stars are. And this last draft class featured five defensive linemen or outside linebackers -- including three in the first four picks -- before the first offensive lineman was selected.

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But the numbers? They're screaming in the opposite direction. According to the statistics, pass blocking is more important than pass rushing. Let me explain by answering all of the questions you might have, and here are some lines to watch this season based on our pass-blocking metrics.

Wait, offensive linemen don't really get stats. How are we even quantifying their performance?

Last season, ESPN created a new statistic to measure individual and team pass-blocking performance. It's called pass block win rate (PBWR).

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In short, if a player sustains his block for 2.5 seconds, the offense is credited with a win. If a blocker is beat before 2.5 seconds after the snap, it's a loss. And the percentage of the time the offensive blockers win is the pass block win rate.

We even have the same statistic for the defense: pass rush win rate (PRWR). We use 2.5 seconds because it is roughly the average time to pass in the NFL.

Here's a leaderboard for both of those statistics on the team and individual levels.

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/26888038/pass-blocking-matters-more-pass-rushing-prove-it

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Packers have 2nd best pass blocking rate but gave up 3rd most sacks. Panthers have the best pass rush win rate but finished 26th in sacks.    Moral of the story - Stats don't really mean shi

You expected me to read the article?! 

I've said in the past, if you can't pass block you can't run an NFL offense.    The Titans had problems last year with their OL. That's why Kline was cut, Conklin wasn't given the 5th year o

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very interesting article. 

this metric takes the QB out of the situation and the Oline only gets graded as a win if the block is sustained more than 2.5 seconds. if the QB gets rid of the ball before that, then it doesnt matter. 

 

their rankings put our oline at 25th worst. (FWIW  - football outsiders had us at 29th worst and PFF has us 14/15th. So.. either exactly average or god awful by every metric available. Both FO and PFF unintentionally factor in QB play) 

 

i think we need another season of stats to get a truer picture but ESPN doesnt think so. 

 

also, seeing the below charts, it's pretty easy to look at pass RUSH win rate % and see that winning teams are all over the board. 

... whereas pass BLOCK win rate % is in general aligned with wins.

Edited by titanruss
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It depends if your QB is pocket-presenceless, spam-eating, rainbow-throwing dumpster water or not. If your QB is competent, invest in great pass blockers to give him time to slice up defenses. If your QB is Marcus Mariota, sink all your money into run blockers.

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50 minutes ago, GOAT9 said:

Packers have 2nd best pass blocking rate but gave up 3rd most sacks. Panthers have the best pass rush win rate but finished 26th in sacks. 

 

Moral of the story - Stats don't really mean shit unless properly applied.

Exactly... and you are not applying them correctly.

dont get confused. there are other factors besides the pass blocking that leads to sacks. 

rodgers scrambles alot. causes a lot of his own sacks. 

rodgers holds the ball for a big play.. causes a lot of his own sacks. 

the packers threw the ball a shit ton... so maybe instead of just citing total sacks you should check sack rate. 

 

further... win rate for either side isnt about sacks as much as its an average of beating the person across from you. 

so you are again.. looking at the wrong stat. 

 

further... using one example wouldnt be a good argument anyhow. you need to show a pattern. 

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41 minutes ago, woolfolksunclesuncle said:

It depends if your QB is pocket-presenceless, spam-eating, rainbow-throwing dumpster water or not. If your QB is competent, invest in great pass blockers to give him time to slice up defenses. If your QB is Marcus Mariota, sink all your money into run blockers.

except this is pretty much the exact opposite of what the article states. 

look at the best pass blocking teams and who their QBs are. 

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I've said in the past, if you can't pass block you can't run an NFL offense. 

 

The Titans had problems last year with their OL. That's why Kline was cut, Conklin wasn't given the 5th year option and Saffold was signed. 

 

They need better production from the OL and Mariota has to get rid of the ball. Robinson said just the other day he had to get rid of the ball. Mariota is part of the problem. 

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5 minutes ago, nine said:

 

JRob's actions clearly illustrate what he felt were the biggest issues.

 

He replaced Spain with Saffold;   Kline was dumped outright.    Marcus wasn't replaced....but by acquiring Tannehill, JRob made damn sure he had the best possible insurance policy.

 

Also.... to get the ball out quickly and consistently, a QB needs dependable targets who can consistently get open in two seconds or less.   JRob signed Humphries and drafted AJ Brown, effectively pushing the team's #2-3 WRs (Taylor, Sharpe) to #4-5 on the depth chart.

 

It all goes hand-in-hand and works together.  If any part of it breaks down....the whole thing fails.   Mariota was absolutely part of the problem.....but he was only one part.

 

For what it's worth...for most of the season, I was of the opinion that Kline was pretty terrible.  But after watching a bunch of all-22 film of the Titans' offense...he was an even bigger liability than I initially thought.    Of the sacks that were allowed and running plays that were blown up in the backfield, a good 30-40% of them were on Kline directly.  (Especially the running plays.)   There were also a bunch of short/medium gains on running plays or screen passes that were perfectly set up and could have/should have been huge gains....but the big play didn't happen because Kline's poor execution at the point of attack allowed a defender to get to the ballcarrier.   

 

It's not necessary for an OL to be an overpowering and physically dominant presence;  just doing an adequate job is fine as long as he does it consistently.  Kline was consistently less-than-adequate....and now he's gone.  Addition by subtraction.

 

 

If Robinson believed all the excuses you lay out then Mariota would have an extension

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14 minutes ago, nine said:

 

JRob's actions clearly illustrate what he felt were the biggest issues.

 

He replaced Spain with Saffold;   Kline was dumped outright.    Marcus wasn't replaced....but by acquiring Tannehill, JRob made damn sure he had the best possible insurance policy.

 

Also.... to get the ball out quickly and consistently, a QB needs dependable targets who can consistently get open in two seconds or less.   JRob signed Humphries and drafted AJ Brown, effectively pushing the team's #2-3 WRs (Taylor, Sharpe) to #4-5 on the depth chart.

 

For what it's worth...for most of the season, I was of the opinion that Kline was pretty terrible.  But after watching a bunch of all-22 film of the Titans' offense...he was an even bigger liability than I initially thought.    Of the sacks that were allowed and running plays that were blown up in the backfield, a good 30-40% of them were on Kline directly.  (Especially the running plays.)   There were also a bunch of short/medium gains on running plays or screen passes that were perfectly set up and could have/should have been huge gains....but the big play didn't happen because Kline's poor execution at the point of attack allowed a defender to get to the ballcarrier.   

 

It's not necessary for an OL to be an overpowering and physically dominant presence;  just doing an adequate job is fine as long as he does it consistently.  Kline was consistently less-than-adequate....and now he's gone.  Addition by subtraction.

 

 

I’d like to say that Mariota getting the ball out has almost always been determined by the defense he’s facing. He consistently struggles against 3-4 zone blitz schemes. In those situations you hit the WR in the back if he isn’t in the right place looking for the ball. You simply can’t hold onto it when they overload a side, which is what he did all of last year and in 17. 

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