Popular Post Huston Posted June 24, 2019 Popular Post Report Share Posted June 24, 2019 (edited) Dwain McFarland introduces his RSP readers to “The Rule of Three’s,” impact on the NFL passing game in this installment of Film And Data. In a recent discussion with a colleague who has served as a consultant to NFL teams, he mentioned the concept he’s heard in NFL circles called the “rule of three.” Essentially, the premise is in order to consistently beat quality defenses an offense needs to have three solid receiving targets on the field at all times. In this case, a solid receiving threat can be thought of as a player who has a diverse route tree and excels versus both man and zone coverage. If you only have one, they will be focused on and often taken away by better defenses. If you only have two, that will be taken away by upper tier defenses. If you have three, it becomes hard to schematically match up in all instances. Offensive coordinators utilize formations and motion, thus increasing the likelihood of consistent success. Mathematically, this makes sense given that on average NFL teams run upwards of 54% of passing plays through three receiving targets. Over the past five years that distribution looks like this: The versatility of these three threats is often at the crux of the rule as well. Having three players with a similarly limited application is not ideal. The best scenario is having three options that can work all three areas of the field beating man and zone coverages. What is more realistic is having one or two options that can work all areas and another one or two specialists who can either push the vertical boundary or thrive underneath. With that in mind, I have put together an overview of which teams could improve their passing attacks based on the quality and versatility of their 2019 receiving options versus 2018. For each team, I provide a median and aggressive estimated impact. This projection model is built off of roster construction, league trends, player efficiency traits, coaching tendencies, anticipated game flow, and a few other factors. For context here are the NFL three year averages for the statistics we will be discussing: Yards Per Attempt (YPA): 7.2 Touchdowns Per Attempt (TDPA): 4.4% Passing Yards Per Season: 3,988 TD Passes Per Season: 25 Feel free reach out to me @dwainmcfarland on Twitter or in the comments section below if you want to better understand these components. In-Depth Looks Tennessee Titans New Faces: Adam Humphries, A.J. Brown Returning to Health: Delanie Walker On paper, the Titans are better than ever in Marcus Mariota’s tenure. Last season they lost tight end Delanie Walker after week one and Taywan Taylor struggled to find consistency. Now, they can line up strong route runners at all three receiver positions. Adam Humpries will work from the slot to provide Mariota with quick reads underneath. A.J. Brown will likely start outside at flanker serving as another short to intermediate option who also has some after the catch wiggle. Add these components to Corey Davis plus the receiving versatility of running back Dion Lewis and you have a team that can beat win in multiple ways. The Titans are much more likely to find consistent mismatches in the passing game in 2019 with this roster construction. Median Projected Efficiency Impact: Mariota increases his YPA to 7.75 and his TDPA from 3.5% to 4.5% Median Team Passing Totals: 3,975 Yards and 23 Touchdowns Aggressive Projected Efficiency Impact: Mariota increases his YPA to 8.25 and his TDPA to 5.5% Aggressive Projected Team Passing Totals: 4,230 Yards and 28 TDs The one concern I have is the lack of a true vertical element. Having that would open up additional space for the underneath routes. The rest of article https://mattwaldmanrsp.com/2019/06/20/dwain-mcfarlands-rsp-film-and-data-the-rule-of-three/ Edited June 24, 2019 by Huston Number9, Face, CreepingDeath, and 3 others 6 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Number9 Posted June 24, 2019 Report Share Posted June 24, 2019 I think this presents an excellent opportunity for AJB. Everybody talks about Taylor, but Brown has speed to get deep and he can catch contested balls. Justafan 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
nine Posted June 24, 2019 Report Share Posted June 24, 2019 Quote A.J. Brown will likely start outside at flanker.... "Flanker"? Man, talk about a blast from the past! That term hasn't been part of the NFL vernacular since the 1970s. heyitsmeallen, woolfolksunclesuncle, and Number9 3 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post nine Posted June 24, 2019 Popular Post Report Share Posted June 24, 2019 Every member of the 2018 receiving corps not named Corey Davis is either being pushed down the depth chart or off the roster entirely in 2019. This will be easily the strongest supporting cast Marcus has seen as an NFL player; hopefully this is reflected in his performance. If not...the next guy will be coming into a solid situation where most or all of the pieces are already in place. titanruss, Number9, Supdawg, and 9 others 11 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
kyle021 Posted June 24, 2019 Report Share Posted June 24, 2019 14 minutes ago, nine said: Every member of the 2018 receiving corps not named Corey Davis is either being pushed down the depth chart or off the roster entirely in 2019. This will be easily the strongest supporting cast Marcus has seen as an NFL player; hopefully this is reflected in his performance. If not...the next guy will be coming into a solid situation where most or all of the pieces are already in place. I agree. I hope it’s Mariota. For the sake of MM himself and the team. He deserves every chance even going into year five and he is everything you want out of a franchise QB off the field and even on it in terms of winning and leadership. He needs to stay healthy and make a positive step forward after negative steps backwards the last two years. However I think last year wasn’t as bad as many think. He improved and had a few TD’s dropped and they ran for a lot of TDS at end of year where he could’ve piled on a couple extra TD passes and looked better. He did it while not being able to grip the ball or feel half of his hand. In the event we have to move on it needs to be the right guy and we need to take our time doing it to get it right. They will have everything surrounding them to succeed in terms of OL, WR’s, defense and run game. I would still prefer Marcus bosss50, prometheus, Huston, and 1 other 4 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post woolfolksunclesuncle Posted June 24, 2019 Popular Post Report Share Posted June 24, 2019 2 hours ago, nine said: "Flanker"? Man, talk about a blast from the past! That term hasn't been part of the NFL vernacular since the 1970s. Yesssssss! 70's talk is groovy you fucking jive turkeys! begooode, Number9, CreepingDeath, and 2 others 3 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post TitansGuru Posted June 24, 2019 Popular Post Report Share Posted June 24, 2019 “Having more good players (who do more stuff well) can make you a better team. “ SleepingTitan, CreepingDeath, Starkiller, and 8 others 7 1 3 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
OILERMAN Posted June 24, 2019 Report Share Posted June 24, 2019 Remember The 2011 Broncos loaded with Eric Decker, Damirius Thomas, Julius Thomas and Willis McGahee? The same skill people and the offense exploded the next year, points per game went from 19 to 30+. The skill people didn't change, the QB changed FRT, DecepticonShawn, and TerryBoats 3 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Starkiller Posted June 24, 2019 Report Share Posted June 24, 2019 Have the Titans ever had 3 good receivers at the same time before? bosss50, big2033, and C_Train 2 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Starkiller Posted June 24, 2019 Report Share Posted June 24, 2019 14 minutes ago, OILERMAN said: Remember The 2011 Broncos loaded with Eric Decker, Damirius Thomas, Julius Thomas and Willis McGahee? The same skill people and the offense exploded the next year, points per game went from 19 to 30+. The skill people didn't change, the QB changed Yeah, well having 3 good WRs is kind of worthless with Tim Tebow throwing the ball... Justafan, bizzyeddie, Soxcat, and 1 other 4 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Starkiller Posted June 24, 2019 Report Share Posted June 24, 2019 38 minutes ago, Soxcat said: Not only did they go from Tebow..... they went to a HOF QB. Give OMan credit for trying to take two extremes and make a point from them. Yeah, well Manning was past his HOF-level days with Denver so it’s not quite that simple. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanruss Posted June 24, 2019 Report Share Posted June 24, 2019 23 minutes ago, Starkiller said: Yeah, well Manning was past his HOF-level days with Denver so it’s not quite that simple. The first year he wasn’t Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Starkiller Posted June 24, 2019 Report Share Posted June 24, 2019 40 minutes ago, Soxcat said: Yea well his first year in Denver was one of his best of his career. 106 QB rating, 5th in total passing yards. 69% completion rate. 37 TDs. That seems pretty simple to me. For a second I thought you were grasping being rational but ............. You are talking statistics, I’m talking his physical abilities. As as was pointed out, he had a great team around him. But by the end of the year teams had figured out he didn’t have his old arm strength any more. They had pretty well worked around that, but he wasn’t the same as he had been pre-injury. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
nine Posted June 24, 2019 Report Share Posted June 24, 2019 10 minutes ago, Starkiller said: You are talking statistics, I’m talking his physical abilities. As as was pointed out, he had a great team around him. But by the end of the year teams had figured out he didn’t have his old arm strength any more. They had pretty well worked around that, but he wasn’t the same as he had been pre-injury. Peyton's arm faded down the stretch in 2014 and was completely shot in 2015 ....but before that, he was still playing and producing at an HOF level. His second season in Denver (5477 yards, 55 TDs, 115.1 passer rating) was among the greatest (if not THE greatest) single-season quarterbacking performances in NFL history. He was nearing the end of his career at that point...but suggesting he was past his prime is more than a bit disingenuous. Soxcat, and titanruss 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Starkiller Posted June 24, 2019 Report Share Posted June 24, 2019 4 minutes ago, Soxcat said: So what about his incredible season in year 2 at Denver? 55 TDs. Think what he might have done if he was 100%? I didn’t say he was a shitty QB by then, he just didn’t have the same arm strength he had before the injury. He had 4 excellent receivers and he was still was a great QB aside from his deep ball. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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