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abc2330   
13 minutes ago, big2033 said:

 

I have to side with @Huston on this, this doesn't make sense lol.

 

You can't give the OC credit for one thing then absolve him of blame for others.

 

Honestly, I believe Mariota can make plays when he's in a bind. That's when he's forced to be more aggressive. That could be a reason for his 3rd down conversions.

 

Mariota has proven he can do it in the 4th or in do-or-die situations. But the question is if he has the mentality to be aggressive before being backed into a corner.

 

 

So why was he not good at it in 2017?  We were leading the league in 3 and outs for a good while.  Ended up being 4th worst in plays per drive.  He suddenly became good?  With a bum throwing hand and WR group devastated by injuries?  Come on.  Yeah, he plays better when backed into a corner.  But it's not like he was making heroic plays.  There were open receivers and that wasn't the case during the previous year

Edited by abc2330

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big2033   
10 minutes ago, abc2330 said:

So why was he not good at it in 2017?  We were leading the league in 3 and outs for a good while.  He suddenly became good?  With a bum throwing hand and WR group devastated by injuries?  Come on.  

Nah there's other factors in there I'm sure but I don't see the OC as one of them.

 

I just did some research you and @Huston can dissect. On "Down and Length" Mariota had 33 attempts at 3rd and 9+. He was 26 of 33 for a 78.8 completion percentage. Great.

 

However, he was 50.9% on 3rd and 3-8 yards. Which is third and manageable and would be the scenarios we'd see the most. He had 57 attempts there.


If you go down further you can see he's absolutely horrendous on 3rd and 3-7 yards.

 

So what does this say? Like most of these deep-dive stats it doesn't tell much of a story overall lol.

 

His splits are here: http://proxy.espn.com/nfl/player/splits/_/id/2576980/marcus-mariota 

Edited by big2033

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BudAdams   

Regarding the 3rd downs, the passer rating stat is nice but the success rate (1st down conversions and sacks are not considered) was 34% on pass plays.  The sack rate on this split (3rd and 7 are longer), the sack rate was 25%.  Keenum was the next highest sack rate at 16%.

 

Overall 3rd down, he was 15th in passer rating with a 38% success rate.  The sack rate on 3rd down was 18.5%.  Now, MM had a few games where the good numbers translated to conversions (Chargers, Cowboys come to mind).  The Texans game, however, is a great example of passer rating on 3rd down being somewhat hollow.  Marcus had a perfect passer rating (7-7) and one of them was a TD.  Overall, they were 3 for 9 on pass plays.

 

 

Where he did really was running - 11 of 14 3rd down runs got 1st downs (79%).  10th in success rate but the best among those with 12 or more runs - only 4 QB's had more 1st down runs (Jackson, Tribisky, Newton, and Josh Allen),

 

 

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big2033   
3 minutes ago, BudAdams said:

Regarding the 3rd downs, the passer rating stat is nice but the success rate (1st down conversions and sacks are not considered) was 34% on pass plays.  The sack rate on this split (3rd and 7 are longer), the sack rate was 25%.  Keenum was the next highest sack rate at 16%.

 

Overall 3rd down, he was 15th in passer rating with a 38% success rate.  The sack rate on 3rd down was 18.5%.  Now, MM had a few games where the good numbers translated to conversions (Chargers, Cowboys come to mind).  The Texans game, however, is a great example of passer rating on 3rd down being somewhat hollow.  Marcus had a perfect passer rating (7-7) and one of them was a TD.  Overall, they were 3 for 9 on pass plays.

 

 

Where he did really was running - 11 of 14 3rd down runs got 1st downs (79%).  10th in success rate but the best among those with 12 or more runs - only 4 QB's had more 1st down runs (Jackson, Tribisky, Newton, and Josh Allen),

 

 

It's just a mishmash of shit essentially.

 

I'm all for the deep stats if they fit an overall narrative. When they're an anomaly or when there's a stat that contradicts it they aren't worth mentioning.

 

That's why we keep going back to his overall numbers. 

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BudAdams   

The 3rd down data for Mariota is fascinating though by splits.  Mid field he was excellent then a huge drop off inside the 40.

 

Overall

Own 1-20:  28th passer rating, 13% success rate.  Note only 4 attempts + 3 sacks

21-40 - 21st passer rating, 38% success rate.

41-41 - 3rd best overall passer rating.  52% success rate

40-21 - 29th passer rating.  38% success rate

RZ - 23rd passer rating.  26% success rate

 

3rd and 7+

Own 1-20:  32nd passer rating, 14% success rate.  Note only 4 attempts + 3 sacks

21-40 - 5th passer rating, 39% success rate.

41-41 - #1 best overall passer rating.  53% success rate

40-21 - 37th passer rating.  22% success rate

RZ - 15th passer rating.  20% success rate

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begooode   
7 hours ago, oldschool said:

No way. Every scouting report out there said he was solely a RT at the NFL level. 

Daniel Jeremiah did put out there that he could see Conklin as a Whitworth type of LT, able to anchor more so than ‘out athlete’ most edge players. 

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8 minutes ago, begooode said:

Daniel Jeremiah did put out there that he could see Conklin as a Whitworth type of LT, able to anchor more so than ‘out athlete’ most edge players. 

Interesting, I don't recall that. Nice find.

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Number9   

This is funny.  I really hope Pees stays another season after this year.  He really has made this an efficient defense.  18.9 ppg, 3rd in the NFL and now he's a player coach.

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Soxcat   
50 minutes ago, oldschool said:

Interesting, I don't recall that. Nice find.

If we had not drafted Conklin the Lions might take him as their LT (at #16).  Decker is a step down in overall ability but is decent.  We traded down from 15 and the Lions took Decker at 16 which still kills Charlie.  In hindsight Decker might have made a decent RT but certainly JRob had a severe woody for Conklin to trade up and take him that early.  Tunsil was also on the board when we took Conklin at 8. 

 

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Hey Touched The Tard, sittings here having lunch and look at a Colts/Luck article on Yahoo. Ellen P huh? To say you’re fucked in the head is an understatement.

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begooode   
27 minutes ago, Soxcat said:

If we had not drafted Conklin the Lions might take him as their LT (at #16).  Decker is a step down in overall ability but is decent.  We traded down from 15 and the Lions took Decker at 16 which still kills Charlie.  In hindsight Decker might have made a decent RT but certainly JRob had a severe woody for Conklin to trade up and take him that early.  Tunsil was also on the board when we took Conklin at 8. 

Conklin was going to be a Giant @ 10, per all the reporting. Seems very likely that’s why the cost to move up to 8 was so high.

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Ricky   

Yes Conklin to Giants was going to happen. Had to move up to get him or lose him. JRob good at reading the draft board. 

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Ricky   

Practice was a little more energetic for the Titans today. Offense started slow but a catch by Tajae Sharpe got things going for them. Defense still looked good. More balanced today as far as offense vs. defense. espn.com/espn/now?nowId…

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