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OILERMAN

Vegas odds on win total, odds to win division, AFC and SB

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OILERMAN   

http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/26632812/super-bowl-divisional-odds-playoff-odds-all-32-nfl-teams-2019-season

 

Tennessee Titans (100-1 to win SB)

Odds to win AFC: 50-1
Division: 5-1(Tied with Jags/last)
Over/under: 8
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +375, No -500

 

The Dolphins have the worst chance to win the AFC at 100-1, Titans are in the next group at 50-1 with the Bills and Bengals. Of note Vegas has the Raiders, Jags and Broncos with a better chance then the Titans

 

To win the SB, the Cards/Fins have the worst chance at 200-1. The Titans are in the next worse group at 100-1 with Bills, Bengals, Giants, Redskins, Lions and Bucs. 

 

Jets, Jags and Raiders have better odds to win SB then the Titans. 

 

I think the Seahawks are undervalued and the Ravens are overvalued. 

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OILERMAN   
8 minutes ago, IsntLifeFunny said:

Pretty strange to be at 8 wins and last in the division at the same time. 

The Colts are the clear cut fave then the other 3 are pretty much right there with the Texans slightly rated higher.

 

The bigger anomaly is the Titans are down with the worst teams in the league in terms of winning the AFC or SB but have a much better win total vs those same teams. The other teams are in the 6 win range while the Titans are at 8. I think that is a reflection of the coaching staff and the talent on the roster minus QB. I actually agree with the reasoning too. I could see them being better than 8 wins if things fall right but winning the AFC or SB is super unlikely. 

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2 minutes ago, OILERMAN said:

The Colts are the clear cut fave then the other 3 are pretty much right there with the Texans slightly rated higher.

 

The bigger anomaly is the Titans are down with the worst teams in the league in terms of winning the AFC or SB but have a much better win total vs those same teams. The other teams are in the 6 win range while the Titans are at 8. I think that is a reflection of the coaching staff and the talent on the roster minus QB. I actually agree with the reasoning too. I could see them being better than 8 wins if things fall right but winning the AFC or SB is super unlikely. 

It’s pretty interesting no matter how you dissect it. Either Vegas thinks we have an excellent roster, or they think we have a good roster with a QB who can win but can’t stay healthy. Putting us at 8 wins with that schedule doesn’t leave much room for a different opinion. 

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OILERMAN   
3 minutes ago, IsntLifeFunny said:

It’s pretty interesting no matter how you dissect it. Either Vegas thinks we have an excellent roster, or they think we have a good roster with a QB who can win but can’t stay healthy. Putting us at 8 wins with that schedule doesn’t leave much room for a different opinion. 

I really don't think it works that way.....

 

Vegas could have the Titans at an 8 over/under while only favoring them in 3 games when the schedule is looked at as a whole. 8 is where they think they'll get action on both sides, not a record prediction 

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japan   
2 hours ago, OILERMAN said:

http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/26632812/super-bowl-divisional-odds-playoff-odds-all-32-nfl-teams-2019-season

 

Tennessee Titans (100-1 to win SB)

Odds to win AFC: 50-1
Division: 5-1(Tied with Jags/last)
Over/under: 8
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +375, No -500

 

The Dolphins have the worst chance to win the AFC at 100-1, Titans are in the next group at 50-1 with the Bills and Bengals. Of note Vegas has the Raiders, Jags and Broncos with a better chance then the Titans

 

To win the SB, the Cards/Fins have the worst chance at 200-1. The Titans are in the next worse group at 100-1 with Bills, Bengals, Giants, Redskins, Lions and Bucs. 

 

Jets, Jags and Raiders have better odds to win SB then the Titans. 

 

I think the Seahawks are undervalued and the Ravens are overvalued. 

Wonder what this looked like last year. I would guess it turned out to be pretty accurate for us.  And it was probably pretty similar to this. 

Edited by japan

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OILERMAN   
5 minutes ago, japan said:

Wonder what this looked like last year. I would guess it turned out to be pretty accurate for us. 

They've been pretty good the last few years within a game or so. They started out 7.5 and climbed to 8-8.5 before the season

 

The big error was in 2016 when the line was 6, I said bet everything you had on the over. 

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I saw a poll that had the Titans at 7-9 no playoffs. I think this stems from very little confidence on Mariota improving or staying healthy for a full season.

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OILERMAN   

I listen to the Ross Tucker betting podcast with Steve Fezzik(two time SB sports betting champ) and he's been slamming Mariota for about 2 years. I posted it last season and Scine said he'd change his tune after 2018. I'm sure they'll do a pod on the post draft odds in a week or so. I'll post whether or not last season changed his mind

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2 hours ago, OILERMAN said:

I really don't think it works that way.....

 

Vegas could have the Titans at an 8 over/under while only favoring them in 3 games when the schedule is looked at as a whole. 8 is where they think they'll get action on both sides, not a record prediction 

Glad somebody else gets it lol

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OILERMAN   

I tried to find the Vegas odds on every game but didn't find it. I did find this though. USA Today goes down every game and predicts a winner and comes up with the final records for every team. They have the Titans at 5-11. 5-11 seems crazy until you go down the schedule and look at each game individually.

 

https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/05/2019-nfl-season-predictions-every-game-super-bowl

 

image.png.8dcf0b8dc896f1d88ee81f1288e25d1c.png

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looking at superbowl odds I generally see 2 or 3 teams I like the odds on.  I tend to look for a team in a weaker division that may sneak into the playoffs.  I really don't see any team this year that looks like a decent bet.

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