Would an economic downturn now actually be fun?

[9 Nines]

5 minutes ago, IsntLifeFunny said:

Then we are fucked when the downturn hits. 

Could be a blip, but if the economy is faltering in spite of all this demand, then it has run its course and they are "pushing on a string." 

 

If that is the case, it is what it is and it is going to happen.  Again, in the long term I think it would be welcomed, but in the short term, they could make it worse.  If the FED went into quantitative easing, and the economy is in an inevitable recession, most of that money will go into financial assets, increasing the risk of financial bubbles. Those bubbles could then burst making the downturn worse with insane leadership - imagine if crazy Trump were the President during 2008. 

[OILERMAN]

1 hour ago, Legaltitan said:

He has kind of already done that with his trade war. 

Those are projected to hit the markets this year and 20

[ctm]

Nothing good happens when people start losing their job.

[Justafan]

2 minutes ago, ctm said:

Nothing good happens when people start losing their job.

Exactly.  We need to create more good jobs, not sabotage the entire world because we don't like the sitting president.  That's ridiculous.

 

 

[9 Nines]

5 minutes ago, Justafan said:

Exactly.  We need to create more good jobs, not sabotage the entire world because we don't like the sitting president.  That's ridiculous.

 

 

Its inevitable.  We are in a 11 year economic expansion.  They end.  Now would be lighter recession than if in two years.  And now would also mean political change which a majority would see as good change.  If you have to take medicine, why not take a little candy tasting medicine now instead of a bunch of curse-the-sky bad tasting medicine later? 

[Justafan]

Just now, 9 Nines said:

Its inevitable.  We are in a 11 year economic expansion.  They end.  Now would be lighter recession than if in two years.  And now would also mean political change which a majority would see as good change.  If you have to take medicine, why not take a little candy tasting medicine now instead of a bunch of curse-the-sky bad tasting medicine later? 

It's only inevitable because of supreme incompetence by our leaders.  That doesn't make it a good thing either.  

[abenjami]

Me and my big wad of cash think it would be very fun!

[MadMax]

49 minutes ago, abenjami said:

Me and my big wad of cash think it would be very fun!

Me and my no pot to piss in or a window to throw it out of would find humor as well.

[GOAT9]

6 hours ago, 9 Nines said:

I think a good measured recession would be perfect timing. 

 

One, it would set the country right on its political path, and with the conservative movement likely running out of steam because of demographics, it would likely end the 40 years of conservative policies of the nation.   Two, it would allow the economy to get restructured right as millennials  start entering their prime earning ages,  which combined with their size, will likely put the nation into a bullish economy growth for several decades.   

 

I think a recession now would jump start all of that, gaining us some extra and earlier years to build on the likely multiple decades upward trajectory. 

 

A recession now would be like a few extra, harder workouts to build more muscles for the future. 

this is a top 5 dumbest thing ever said on this forum and that's crazy considering guys like Tux and Envy roam these boards.

[GOAT9]

The next economic recession will be bad. The last recession China was able to prop up the world economy which softened the impacts. China cant do that this time around, their growth is decelerating and they are already back in QE. The EU is a joke at this point and the best they all hope for is stagflation. The US doesn't have a lot of leverage to fight a downturn. Interest rates still aren't even half of normalized, and the Fed still has assets on its balance sheet from 08. Not to mention the US cant push the deficit too much further or were going to end up like Japan. 

 

Also during hard economic times the risk of fanatics getting into power is higher. Considering tensions are already high among so many countries right now, its pretty much a powder keg waiting to blow. To make it worse, Millennials are the biggest bunch of pussies in human history, so we know they aren't going to fix anything. 

[Starkiller]

The next recession won’t be nearly as bad as the Great Recession. There’s no reason to freak out about the next recession. There is no reason to root for a recession, either.

 

There is always another one coming. There’s a good chance one will happen in the next handful of years because we have had such a long period of growth since Obama first took office but recently it was uniquely inflated by the short term influx of corporate capital from overseas due to Trump's corporate tax cut. Probably, IMO, it will be before the next election.

[reo]

I'm fairly certain my job wouldn't be affected overly much but a recession is never fun or something I'd cheer for.

[GOAT9]

15 minutes ago, Starkiller said:

The next recession won’t be nearly as bad as the Great Recession. There’s no reason to freak out about the next recession. There is no reason to root for a recession, either.

 

There is always another one coming. There’s a good chance one will happen in the next handful of years because we have had such a long period of growth since Obama first took office but recently it was uniquely inflated by the short term influx of corporate capital from overseas due to Trump's corporate tax cut. Probably, IMO, it will be before the next election.

Under what reasoning will the recession not be bad? Household debt, student debt, corporate debt, auto loan debt, US debt, and world debt are all at record highs. Credit card debt is equal to 07 levels. All major banks (domestic and foreign) posted declining revenues and earnings misses. The Fed Funds rate in 07 before the crash was over 5%. Its 2% now. The Fed has half of the power it had back in 07 to fend off a recession. What are they going to negative interest rates? You can only devalue the dollar so much before hyperinflation kicks in and then youre fucked. 

[Starkiller]

22 minutes ago, GOAT9 said:

Under what reasoning will the recession not be bad? Household debt, student debt, corporate debt, auto loan debt, US debt, and world debt are all at record highs. Credit card debt is equal to 07 levels. All major banks (domestic and foreign) posted declining revenues and earnings misses. The Fed Funds rate in 07 before the crash was over 5%. Its 2% now. The Fed has half of the power it had back in 07 to fend off a recession. What are they going to negative interest rates? You can only devalue the dollar so much before hyperinflation kicks in and then youre fucked. 

The debt level wasn’t the driver of the Great Recession.

 

In 2008 it was the housing bubble, combined with banks being unwilling to renegotiate mortgages, plus the insane impact of the derivatives market. All that caused a massive collapse in banking capital. The economy is overwhelmingly dependent on the ease of credit. When banks stop lending money or loans are exceedingly expensive, the economy struggles. 

 

Millions of people losing their most valuable possession and jobs, the collapse of the home building/sales industry, people spending less money, etc created a vicious cycle with all that. But all of this was largely a product of the banks collapsing.

 

Another banking collapse is not a serious risk at this point. The next recession is likely a fairly shallow one based on current conditions. But one is coming.

Edited March 23, 2019 by Starkiller

[No1TitansFan]

7 hours ago, Justafan said:

An economic downturn is 100% inevitable with no regulation on big banks or monopolistic megacompanies, out of control corporate welfare, an inability of the middle class to negotiate wages which limits spending power of 70% of the economy and an imbecile President who keeps destabilizing the market.  

Guess it's their ideology; if you want to stimulate the economy with a tax cut or rebate, give it to people who live paycheck to paycheck, they'll spend every penny of it and it will all go into stimulating the economy.